Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 04/26/2022

by James Q

Monday, Apr 25, 2022

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 04/26/2022

Game Time: 7:00 PM ET, Tuesday, April 26th, 2022 
Venue:  FTX Arena, Miami, Florida 
Where to Watch: NBA TV

Opening NBA Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Heat -7; O/U 217.5
Fanduel:  Heat -7; O/U 217.5
BetMGM: Heat -7.5; O/U 217.5

NBA Standings

Hawks: 43-39, 8th place Eastern Conference; 1-3 in the series
Heat:53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference; 3-1 in the series

An NBA Eastern Conference matchup between the 1st place Eastern Conference team and the 8th place Eastern Conference team.  The whole world of basketball fans held their breath for just a few seconds when they saw this matchup after the Play-In tournament.  After All the Hawks are last season’s surprise darlings… and though they struggled in the regular season we all thought PG Trae Young was going to put an otherworldly hurt on a Miami Heat team that has largely been seen as a paper Champ.  In the regular season the Eastern Conference was plagued by storylines of hurt stars… big time trades… and when the heck were the Brooklyn Nets going to find the next gear and beat everyone.  That made the look of the Miami Heat somewhat suspect… after all they do not have an all-league scorer anywhere on the roster.  The mu8ch hyped shooters for the Heat Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson had off years as well… and Star Heat SF Jimmy Butler…. Well he’s just top 20… not a superstar… certainly not an offensive superstar.  Then the series played out in front of our eyes.  It turns out that a superstar can average 22 points if he plays top-notch defense no matter the matchup… and shooters can get hot after they have been cold… and vets like PF PJ Tucker and C Bam Adebayo can bring more than scoring to the court.  The Hawks did their job… as the #8 Seed they won one game on their home court and prevented the ever embarrassing sweep… but the writing is on the wall.  We already know who will win… we only have to ask if the Heat can Cover -7 to -7.5 points at home depending on your book.

The Atlanta Hawks are 1-3 in the series and 1-3 ATS in the series.  The Playoffs have not been kind to Hawks fans.  PG Trae Young is having a rough go of it.  The Hawks were up against the 8-ball to start with 2 road losses to Miami… then they won a single game at home.  If you thought the tide was turning… it didn’t. They lost the second game of their homestand 110-86. SF DeAndre Hunter did his best to lift the team as he finished with 24 points.. But logged a -29 +/- during his tie on the floor.  The shocking thing was C Clint Capela and Pg Trae Young seemes invisible under the Miami defensive pressure…, Trae finished with 9 points while Clint logged just 2 points.  The only bright spot anywhere on the roster was once again SF Kevin Knox who yet again in garbage time landed 12 points in 4 minutes of action with 4-6 from 3-point range.  Kevin Knox didn’t finish on the Knicks… the Hawks are simply not playing him… He most likely will be on the move in the offseason.  He seems like a pure target for the Charlotte Hornets… who could use more athleticism to fill the void left by the oft injured and one day retiring SF Gordon Hayward (just a thought).

The Miami Heat have a great defense.  That part can never be in question. They are up 3-1 on the Atlanta Hawks and rolling the bettors cash with 3-1 ATS.  I am personally 3-1 with my book in this series… I pushed the Heat each time and only got burnt once.  The problem with anyone taking on the Heat is they are assured they do not have SF Jimmy Butler on their team.  Jimmy is not everything, but his mix of offense and defense is a great sign that the only people giving him his due are the ad execs at Michelob Ultra.  Jimmy is underrated. The fact that Jimmy is surrounded by other quality defenders has turned Miami into an offensive swamp for visiting teams.  They would love to win by scoring but have a hard time getting too much further than 105 points…. And with the Heat landing an average of 110 ppg… the home wins have piled up.  In the last win Jimmy had 36 points to lead the team… but also had the other four players in the starting five land double-digit points as well.  They got the win as shooters Tyler Herro (1-8, 0-5 from 3) and Duncan Robinson (just 9 minutes and 3 points) had an awful night of ineptitude… That will not always happen.

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Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat  Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

Atlanta is 46-42 on the season, but 38-48 ATS.  They have logged 43 Overs and 43 Unders.  They are 17-27 in road games.

Miami is 56-30 on the season, but 49-36-1 ATS.  They have notched 49 Overs and 37 Unders. They are a dominant 31-12 in home games.

Offensive Analysis

The Hawks are 6th in Points with 113.9 ppg, 20th in rebounds with 44.0 per game, and 4th in AST/To ratio with 2.1.  On defense they rank a lowly 21st while allowing 112.4 ppg from opponents.

Miami is 17th in scoring with 110.0 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7 per game, and 19th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while holding opponents to 105.6 ppg.
 

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Game Prediction 


Our prediction for Tuesday, April 26th is….. Heat 118 - Hawks 110

This is a bet for the Heat to win and cover the spread.  The Heat are up 3-1 in the series AND have gone 3-1 ATS with 3 more than ten point wins.  It is an elimination game on the Heat’s home court.  When the Hawos get desperate the shots will become silly… The Heat have also figured out a defense that has Hawks' star PG as a negative in the +/- column for all 3 Heat wins.  Also is you go back to the regular season… the Heat have won and covered 6 of the last 8 games (playoffs combined) against the Hawks.  

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NBA Betting Trends

Miami is 65-42 ATS versus the Hawks since 1996.
Miami is 7-1 ATS versus the Hawks at Miami the last 3 seasons.
37 of 55 games have gone UNDER in this series.

Injury List

Hawks: SG Lou Williams (back) Out **

Heat: PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) Quest

Starting Lineups

Hawks: SF De’Andre Hunter, PF John Collins, C Clint Capela, SG Kevin Huerter, PG Trae Young

Heat: PF PJ Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, PG Gabe Vincent, SG Max Strus


Coaches

Hawks: Nate McMillan
Heat: Erik Spoelstra


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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