by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Thursday, December 11, 2025
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Falcons +4.5, Buccaneers -4.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Falcons +4, Buccaneers -4; Over/Under: 44.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Falcons +4.5, Buccaneers -4.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Season Record
Atlanta Falcons: 4-9 (3rd place, NFC South)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-6 (1st place, NFC South)
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Recent Form
Atlanta Falcons: lost their last game at home against the Seattle Seahawks 37-9.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: lost their last game at home against the New Orleans Saints 24-20.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview and Analysis
The Falcons are entering this game with a 4-9 record overall and they have a 1-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-4 in their home games, 2-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Seattle Seahawks 37-9. Kirk Cousins was the starting QB and he completed 15/30 passes for 162 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 86. Kyle Pitts led the receivers with 90 receiving yards on 6 receptions. A.J. Terrell Jr. led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while James Pearce Jr. and Kentavius Street each led the defense in sacks with 1. Mike Hughes came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Buccaneers are entering this game with a 7-6 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 4-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the New Orleans Saints 24-20. Baker Mayfield was the starting QB and he completed 14/30 passes for 122 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Bucky Irving led the team in rushing yards with 55. Chris Godwin Jr. led the receivers with 55 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Christian Izien led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Vita Vea, Greg Gaines, and Chris Braswell each led the defense in sacks with 1. Zyon McCollum came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Buccaneers listed as a 4.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers have looked good in their games this season with their 7-6 record overall which has them right at the top of the NFC South. They haven't looked great on their home field though with their 3-3 home record this year. Meanwhile, the Falcons have looked terrible in their games this season with their 4-9 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NFC South. They haven't been a good road team either with their 2-4 road record this season. What started as an optimistic season for the Falcons has turned into disaster this year. They lost their starting QB Penix to injury and they have been in a huge funk lately. They are off a 37-9 loss to the Seahawks in their last one, looking non-competitive in that loss, and they have been officially eliminated from playoff contention now. The Buccaneers are off a 24-20 loss to the Saints in their last one and that was a bad loss for them to take, but that loss is going to serve as a wake up call. They have been sleepwalking through the division all season, getting by with some key players out too, but now they have the pressure of the Panthers right on their backs. The Buccaneers need to get moving to stay at the top of this division, and they are starting to get some players back healthy now. The Buccaneers are going to be looking to bounce back after that bad loss and they should be able to take advantage of a Falcons team that has looked so bad over the last few weeks. The best way to place a bet here is on the Buccaneers to cover the spread in this game.
Falcons Buccaneers Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Thursday, December 11, 2025 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Buccaneers 31 Falcons 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Atlanta Falcons: 16-29 ATS in all games. 1-5 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent. 2-8 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game. 8-3 OVER after allowing 30 points or more last game. 9-5 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-4 ATS after playing a division game. 9-1 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points. 7-3 ATS off a home loss. 10-2 OVER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 rushing yards/game or more. 9-4 OVER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more.
Key Injuries
Atlanta Falcons: K. Hodge (WR) Injured - Shoulder. A. Terrell Jr. (CB) Injured - Neck. K. Pitts Sr. (TE) Injured - Knee. J. Walker (DL) Injured - Quad. C. Lindstrom (OG) Injured - Foot. D. Onyemata (DL) Injured - Foot. K. Elliss (LB) Injured - Elbow. D. London (WR) Injured - Knee. B. Dorlus (DL) Injured - Groin.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: B. Bredeson (OG) Injured - Knee. C. Otton (TE) Injured - Knee. C. Izien (S) Injured - Neck. S. Dennis (LB) Injured - Hip. T. Smith (S) Injured - Neck. H. Reddick (LB) Injured - Ankle. C. Godwin Jr. (WR) Injured - Fibula. M. Evans (WR) Injured - Collarbone. B. Mayfield (QB) Injured - Shoulder. T. Wirfs (OT) Injured - Oblique. R. Wisdom (S) Injured - Quad. B. Irving (RB) Injured - Shoulder. J. McMillan (WR) Injured - Neck. B. Morrison (CB) Injured - Hamstring.
Notable Quotes
“The kickoff return was a backbreaker.” - Raheem Morris after his team’s loss against the Seahawks in their last game.
“It doesn't matter whether the team was 12-0 or 0-12, it's the NFL. You have to show up and make plays or the other team is gonna beat you.” - Todd Bowles after his team’s loss against the Saints in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Atlanta Falcons
WR Mooney, Darnell
WR Hodge, Khadarel
WR Sills V, David
TE Pitts Sr., Kyle
QB Cousins, Kirk
RB Robinson, Bijan
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Egbuka, Emeka
WR Godwin Jr., Chris
WR Shepard, Sterling
TE Otton, Cade
QB Mayfield, Baker
RB Irving, Bucky
Statistical Leaders
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: Michael Penix Jr. (1,982)
Rushing: Bijan Robinson (1,081)
Receiving: Drake London (810)
Touchdowns: Tyler Allgeier (8)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: Baker Mayfield (2,722)
Rushing: Rachaad White (474)
Receiving: Emeka Egbuka (806)
Touchdowns: Emeka Egbuka (6)
Coaches:
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris (2nd season)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
