by Rod Pearson
Friday, Nov 21, 2025
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, November 23, 2025
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Falcons +2.5, Saints -2.5; Over/Under: 40.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Falcons +2, Saints -2; Over/Under: 40.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Falcons +2, Saints -2; Over/Under: 40.5 points
Season Record
Atlanta Falcons: 3-7 (3rd place, NFC South)
New Orleans Saints: 2-8 (4th place, NFC South)
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Atlanta Falcons: lost their last game at home against the Carolina Panthers 30-27 in overtime.
New Orleans Saints: won their last game on the road against the Carolina Panthers 17-7.
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Preview and Analysis
The Falcons are entering this game with a 3-7 record overall and they have a 0-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-3 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Carolina Panthers 30-27 in OT. Michael Penix Jr. was the starting QB and he completed 13/16 passes for 175 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 104 and 2 TDs. Drake London led the receivers with 119 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Ronnie Harrison Jr. led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Ronnie Harrison Jr., Kaden Elliss, Billy Bowman Jr., LaCale London, and James Pearce Jr. each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Saints are entering this game with a 2-8 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-4 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Carolina Panthers 17-7. Tyler Shough was the starting QB and he completed 19/27 passes for 282 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Alvin Kamara led the team in rushing yards with 83. Chris Olave led the receivers with 104 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Kool-Aid McKinstry and Alontae Taylor each led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Nathan Shepherd and Cameron Jordan each led the defense in sacks with 1. Alontae Taylor came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Falcons vs Saints Prediction
The current betting odds have the Saints listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Saints have looked terrible in their games this season with their 2-8 record overall which has them right at the bottom of the NFC South with one of the worst records in the entire NFL. They are off a 17-7 road win over the Panthers in their last one though, and they are coming out of their bye week so they have had extra time to prepare for this game. Meanwhile, the Falcons haven't looked good in their games this season with their 3-7 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NFC South. They were supposed to be a threat to win this division this year, but they have lost 5 games in a row now and they have been falling apart over the last few weeks. They are off a 30-27 loss at home in OT to the Panthers in their last one and they lost their starting QB in that game too. The defense hasn't looked as good lately either. The Saints have been terrible all season, but they recently made a QB change from Rattler to Shough and he was able to lead them to victory in Carolina. The defense also looked a lot better in that win and now with the extra week from the bye, they should look just as good at home against this struggling Falcons offense with Cousins taking over. The Saints have a bit of momentum now while the Falcons are in a complete free fall. The best way to place a bet here is on the Saints to cover the spread in this game.
Falcons Saints Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 23, 2025 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Saints 23 Falcons 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Atlanta Falcons: 15-27 ATS in all games. 3-9 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 3-8 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points. 26-18 UNDER in all games. 9-4 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game.
New Orleans Saints: 4-1 ATS at home versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game or more. 4-2 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more. 27-17 UNDER in all games. 15-7 UNDER in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.
Key Injuries
Atlanta Falcons: X. Watts (S) Injured - Illness. J. Woods (LB) Injured - Hamstring. D. London (WR) Injured - Knee. D. Alford (CB) Injured - Concussion. B. Dorlus (DL) Injured - Oblique. M. Verdon (LB) Injured - Shoulder. L. Floyd (DL) Injured - Hamstring. M. Hughes (CB) Injured - Neck. C. Lindstrom (OG) Injured - Foot. D. Deablo (LB) Injured - Forearm. M. Bergeron (OG) Injured - Ankle. Z. Harrison (DL) Injured - Knee. J. Bates III (S) Injured - NIR - Rest. B. Bowman Jr. (CB) Injured - NIR - Rest. J. Walker (DL) Injured - NIR - Rest. A. Terrell Jr. (CB) Injured - NIR - Rest. M. Penix Jr. (QB) Injured - Knee.
New Orleans Saints: D. Godchaux (DL) Injured - NIR - Rest. A. Kamara (RB) Injured - Ankle. B. Wesley (OT) Injured - Hip. J. Stoll (TE) Injured - Ankle. C. Olave (WR) Injured - Ankle. T. Fuaga (OT) Injured - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“We got to find a way to make plays. I keep saying it every single week: Somebody’s got to make a play at the end, whether it be offense, defense or special teams. We had some opportunities and were not able to get it.” - Raheem Morris after his team’s loss against the Panthers in their last game.
“Tyler took an awesome step today. I thought he made awesome plays and he made some off-schedule plays with movement inside the pocket.” - Kellen Moore after his team’s win against the Panthers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Atlanta Falcons
WR Mooney, Darnell
WR Hodge, Khadarel
WR Sills V, David
TE Pitts Sr., Kyle
QB Cousins, Kirk
RB Robinson, Bijan
New Orleans Saints
WR Tipton, Mason
WR Vele, Devaughn
WR Olave, Chris
TE Johnson, Juwan
QB Shough, Tyler
RB Kamara, Alvin
Statistical Leaders
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: Michael Penix Jr. (1,982)
Rushing: Bijan Robinson (783)
Receiving: Drake London (810)
Touchdowns: Tyler Allgeier (7)
New Orleans Saints
Passing: Spencer Rattler (1,586)
Rushing: Alvin Kamara (460)
Receiving: Chris Olave (664)
Touchdowns: Chris Olave (4)
Coaches:
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris (2nd season)
New Orleans Saints: Kellen Moore (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
