by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Nov 05, 2024
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 10, 2024
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Falcons -3.5, Saints +3.5; Over/Under: 46.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Falcons -3, Saints +3; Over/Under: 46.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Falcons -3.5, Saints +3.5; Over/Under: 46.5 points
Season Record
Atlanta Falcons: 6-3 (1st place, NFC South)
New Orleans Saints: 2-7 (4th place, NFC South)
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Atlanta Falcons: won their last game at home against the Dallas Cowboys 27-21.
New Orleans Saints: lost their last game on the road against the Carolina Panthers 23-22.
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Preview and Analysis
The Falcons are entering this game with a 6-3 record overall and they have a 4-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 3-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Dallas Cowboys 27-21. Kirk Cousins was the starting QB and he completed 19/24 passes for 222 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 86. Darnell Mooney led the receivers with 88 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Kaden Elliss led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Kaden Elliss, Arnold Ebiketie, and Grady Jarrett each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Saints are entering this game with a 2-7 record overall and they have a 1-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-3 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Carolina Panthers 23-22. Derek Carr was the starting QB and he completed 18/31 passes for 236 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Alvin Kamara led the team in rushing yards with 155. Alvin Kamara led the receivers with 60 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Pete Werner led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Carl Granderson and Nathan Shepherd each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. Shemar Jean-Charles came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Falcons vs Saints Prediction
The current betting odds have the Falcons listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Falcons have looked really good in their games this season with their 6-3 record overall which leads the NFC South. They are coming off another win over the Cowboys in their last one and they have been gaining a ton of momentum now as Kirk Cousins has settled into this offense and they have been rolling over teams lately. Meanwhile, the Saints have looked terrible in their games this season with their 2-7 record overall which has them at the bottom of the NFC South with one of the worst records in the entire NFL. They started the season 2-0, but they have lost 7 games in a row since then and their defense has looked terrible lately. They have been giving up a ton of points in their games lately and their offense hasn't been able to do much as they deal with a lot of injuries. They finally got Derek Carr back last week, but that didn't help at all as they still lost on the road to the Panthers who are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Carr is back now but he really has no weapons to throw to and this defense has been terrible lately, now trading away one of their best players too. The Saints won't be able to keep up with the points this Falcons offense can score and the Falcons are going to be looking to take a stranglehold of the division with a win in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Falcons to cover the spread in this game.
Falcons Saints Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 10, 2024 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Falcons 38 Saints 24.
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NFL Betting Trends
Atlanta Falcons: 3-9 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game. 5-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. 5-10 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more. 25-18 UNDER in all games. 10-4 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game. 8-5 UNDER after a win by 6 or less points.
New Orleans Saints: 6-3 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more. 5-1 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 rushing yards/game or more. 6-3 1H ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 10-4 UNDER versus division opponents. 7-2 UNDER revenging a loss against an opponent. 14-7 UNDER after playing their last game on the road.
Key Injuries
Atlanta Falcons: G. Jarrett (DL) Injured - NIR-Rest. J. Matthews (T) Injured - NIR-Rest. D. Onyemata (DL) Injured - NIR-Rest. K. McGary (T) Injured - NIR-Rest. K. Hodge (WR) Injured - NIR-Personal. N. Landman (LB) Injured - NIR - Rest. J. Simmons (SAF) Injured - Hamstring. A. Hamilton (CB) Injured - Back. R. Orhorhoro (DT) Out - Ankle. J. Bertrand (LB) Out - Concussion. C. Lindstrom (G) Questionable - Knee. T. Andersen (LB) Questionable - Knee. K. Elliss (LB) Injured - Knee. D. Dalman (OL) Questionable - Ankle. C. Woerner (TE) Injured - NIR - Rest. M. Judon (OLB) Injured - NIR - Rest. J. Smith-Williams (DL) Injured - NIR - Rest.
New Orleans Saints: J. Williams (RB) Out - Groin. J. Ridgeway (DT) Injured - Oblique. T. Mathieu (SAF) Injured - Illness. S. Lemieux (G) Questionable - Knee. N. Sewell (LB) Questionable - Knee. K. Miller (RB) Out - Hamstring. R. Payton (CB) Questionable - Back. B. Means (WR) Out - Ankle. K. McKinstry (CB) Out - Hamstring. M. Lattimore (CB) Out - Hamstring. J. Johnson (TE) Injured - Shoulder. N. Saldiveri (OL) Questionable - Shoulder. C. Wilson (WR) Questionable - Hip. A. Kamara (RB) Injured - Hand. D. Carr (QB) Injured - Oblique.
Notable Quotes
“There's a lot to look forward to in terms of the city and how we can all come together. You do one week at a time to get there and kind of see where you stand in February.” - Kirk Cousins after their win against the Cowboys in their last game.
“I’m hurting right now. I’m hurting for our city, for our organization and these guys in the locker room. They put their heart and soul into it. To keep coming out on the negative end is quite challenging.” - Dennis Allen after the team’s loss against the Panthers in their last game, before getting fired on Monday.
Starting Lineups
Atlanta Falcons
WR Mooney, Darnell
WR Hodge, KhaDarel
WR McCloud III, Ray-Ray
TE Pitts, Kyle
QB Cousins, Kirk
RB Robinson, Bijan
New Orleans Saints
WR Valdes-Scantling, Marquez
WR Tipton, Mason
WR Wilson Jr., Cedrick
TE Moreau, Foster
QB Carr, Derek
RB Kamara, Alvin
FB Prentice, Adam
Statistical Leaders
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: K. Cousins (2328)
Rushing: B. Robinson (632)
Receiving: D. Mooney (588)
Touchdowns: D. London (6)
New Orleans Saints
Passing: D. Carr (1225)
Rushing: A. Kamara (660)
Receiving: C. Olave (400)
Touchdowns: A. Kamara (7)
Coaches:
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris (1st season)
New Orleans Saints: Darren Rizzi (Interim)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
