by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 2, 2025
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Falcons +5.5, Patriots -5.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Falcons +5.5, Patriots -5.5; Over/Under: 45 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Falcons +5.5, Patriots -5.5; Over/Under: 45 points
Season Record
Atlanta Falcons: 3-4 (3rd place, NFC South)
New England Patriots: 6-2 (1st place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Atlanta Falcons: lost their last game at home against the Miami Dolphins 34-10.
New England Patriots: won their last game at home against the Cleveland Browns 32-13.
Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
The Falcons are entering this game with a 3-4 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-2 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Miami Dolphins 34-10. Kirk Cousins was the starting QB and he completed 21/31 passes for 173 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 25. Kyle Pitts led the receivers with 59 receiving yards on 9 receptions. Kaden Elliss led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Dee Alford led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Patriots are entering this game with a 6-2 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-2 in their home games, 4-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Cleveland Browns 32-13. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 18/24 passes for 282 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing yards with 75. Mack Hollins led the receivers with 89 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Robert Spillane led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 9 assisted tackles while Anfernee Jennings led the defense in sacks with 1. Robert Spillane and Jaylinn Hawkins each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Falcons vs Patriots Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked great in their games this season with their 6-2 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC East. They are off a 32-13 win over the Browns in their last one and they have been rolling in their games lately with 5 wins in a row now. Drake Maye has looked great in this offense as he is taking a big step in his 2nd year, and the defense has looked better and better each week. Meanwhile, the Falcons haven't looked great in their games this season with their 3-4 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NFC South. They have lost 2 games in a row now and they are off a terrible 34-10 loss at home to the Dolphins in their last one. Bijan Robinson had a terrible game on the ground and Kirk Cousins didn't look great either. There is a chance that Penix is going to miss this game too and that offense just can't be trusted with the way Cousins looked last week. Their defense has been good for most of the season, but they looked terrible last week and they are going to be seeing another hot offense here. The Falcons aren't in a great situation now that Penix is injured and they have been too up and down this season from week to week while the Patriots have been a lot more consistent. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Falcons Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 2, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 30 Falcons 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Atlanta Falcons: 6-12 ATS in road games. 3-8 ATS in non-conference games. 2-7 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. 26-15 UNDER in all games. 16-9 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.
New England Patriots: 4-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 15-9 ATS against NFC South division opponents. 7-3 UNDER as a favorite. 16-7 UNDER against NFC South division opponents.
Key Injuries
Atlanta Falcons: D. London (WR) Injured - Hip. K. Pitts Sr. (TE) Injured - Ankle. M. Penix Jr. (QB) Injured - Knee. J. Walker (DL) Injured - Groin. B. Bowman Jr. (CB) Injured - Hamstring. L. Floyd (DL) Injured - Hamstring. C. Washington (WR) Injured - Back. Z. Harrison (DL) Injured - Knee. S. Norton (OG) Injured - Foot. D. Mooney (WR) Injured - Hamstring. J. Bates III (S) Injured - Knee.
New England Patriots: S. Diggs (WR) Injured - Ankle. M. Moses (OT) Injured - NIR-Rest. K. Tonga (DL) Injured - Knee. G. Bradbury (C) Injured - Toe. C. Barmore (DL) Injured - NIR-Other. R. Stevenson (RB) Injured - Toe.
Notable Quotes
“I mean, they went out and smashed us today. They had a beat on what we’re doing defensively. Had a beat on what we were doing on special teams. They did a nice job today. We did not.” - Raheem Morris after his team’s loss against the Dolphins in their last game.
“It’s really cool to really see a difference from last year. It’s been a journey. They’ve been through it. The fans have been through it the last couple of years. So it’s just a credit to them.” - Drake Maye after their win against the Browns in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Atlanta Falcons
WR Mooney, Darnell
WR Hodge, Khadarel
WR Sills V, David
TE Pitts Sr., Kyle
QB Cousins, Kirk
RB Robinson, Bijan
New England Patriots
WR Boutte, Kayshon
WR Hollins, Mack
WR Diggs, Stefon
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
FB Westover, Jack
Statistical Leaders
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: Michael Penix Jr. (1,409)
Rushing: Bijan Robinson (549)
Receiving: Drake London (469)
Touchdowns: Bijan Robinson (4)
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye (2,026)
Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson (279)
Receiving: Stefon Diggs (470)
Touchdowns: Kayshon Boutte (5)
Coaches:
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris (2nd season)
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
