by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Nov 08, 2022
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Where to watch: Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Falcons -3
FanDuel: Falcons -3
BetMGM: Falcons -3
Caesars: Falcons -3
Season record
Falcons: 4-5
Panthers: 2-7
We have officially hit the halfway mark and if you haven't enjoyed the parity in the NFL this season, what are you even doing? There are so many quality teams with winning records that may, or may not, challenge for the Super Bowl, but it's going to at least make these final couple of months really interesting in all division races. And as the races get tighter and the football gets more intensified, it's all about the winning plays that you can find at bigal.com. If you need the right person to go off of for those winning plays, look no further than Sean Murphy going 20-14-0 over the last month in what's been a profitable 30 days for him. Oskeim Sports has also been solid at 9-5-1 over the last 30 days, with Al McMordie posting a 17-14-1 mark. No matter who you go with, you know you're getting the right call with our champion handicappers at bigal.com.
Falcons - Panthers preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Falcons: lost 20-17 vs. Chargers
Panthers: lost 42-21 at Bengals
One thing that these young teams are going to have to learn at some point is that if you have an opportunity to take out Tom Brady and/or further distance yourself from him in the standings, you better take it and not miss. The Atlanta Falcons missed that chance by squandering a golden opportunity against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday and dropped to 4-5.
But at least the Falcons can get back to .500 with a Thursday night win against the Carolina Panthers and the way things are trending for the home team, that might be highly expected at this point. Hell, even go back to Oct. 30 when DJ Moore essentially threw the game away by taking his helmet off in a game-tying situation. If that can happen, imagine what can happen for a full 60-minute rematch two weeks later?
Back to the Falcons, though. There was a big opportunity missed there. Sure, the Chargers aren't at full strength and they should be beatable. But it was prime opportunities and shooting themselves in the foot that cost them. Cameron Dicker kicked two field goals in the final five minutes to send the Chargers to a win, but the day will be remembered for Marcus Mariota completing just 12 of 23 for 129 yards and nothing else. Tyler Allgeier ran for 99 yards on 10 carries, and Kyle Pitts led the receiving core with just 27 yards on two catches. Cordarrelle Patterson somehow remains the biggest weapon on this offense and it's a crime that that remains the case.
“I’ve got to do a better job of giving our guys opportunities to make plays,” Mariota said. “I thought our guys were winning on the back end. Just didn’t make some of the throws.”
That's been the biggest limitation for the Falcons this season. There are too many weapons for a veteran quarterback like Mariota to not get the job done. Mariota has completed fewer than 15 passes in six of nine games. Understandably, going to rookie Desmond Ridder isn't ideal in a division race, but the fact with Kyle Pitts and Drake London that Mariota has thrown for fewer than 150 yards three times this season is horrific.
But we have apparently gone back to the days of yesteryear where the NFC South is complete garbage, and the Panthers have found themselves in a worst spot than Atlanta. Carolina is coming off a 42-21 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals where my guess is they're still dreaming of Joe Mixon scoring touchdowns. The Bengals running back had five on the day and was every fantasy manager's dream. Or in the case of the Panthers, a pure nightmare.
Baker Mayfield returned to go 14 of 20 for 155 yards and two touchdowns after P.J. Walker went 3 of 10 for 9 yards and two interceptions to end that experiment. Carolina ran for 64 total yards, and a lad by the name of Terrace Marshall Jr. led with 53 yards and a touchdown on 3 catches.
“We weren’t setting edges on the defense,” interim coach Steve Wilks said. “We’ve got to understand, even though we’re in man-to-man, we’ve got to get a little wider. Inside, we can’t get reach. We’ve got to fight and play downhill as linebackers, using our hands to get off blocks. It was a combination of things.”
One thing that these young teams are going to have to learn at some point is that if you have an opportunity to take out Tom Brady and/or further distance yourself from him in the standings, you better take it and not miss. The Atlanta Falcons missed that chance by squandering a golden opportunity against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday and dropped to 4-5.
But at least the Falcons can get back to .500 with a Thursday night win against the Carolina Panthers and the way things are trending for the home team, that might be highly expected at this point. Hell, even go back to Oct. 30 when DJ Moore essentially threw the game away by taking his helmet off in a game-tying situation. If that can happen, imagine what can happen for a full 60-minute rematch two weeks later?
Back to the Falcons, though. There was a big opportunity missed there. Sure, the Chargers aren't at full strength and they should be beatable. But it was prime opportunities and shooting themselves in the foot that cost them. Cameron Dicker kicked two field goals in the final five minutes to send the Chargers to a win, but the day will be remembered for Marcus Mariota completing just 12 of 23 for 129 yards and nothing else. Tyler Allgeier ran for 99 yards on 10 carries, and Kyle Pitts led the receiving core with just 27 yards on two catches. Cordarrelle Patterson somehow remains the biggest weapon on this offense and it's a crime that that remains the case.
“I’ve got to do a better job of giving our guys opportunities to make plays,” Mariota said. “I thought our guys were winning on the back end. Just didn’t make some of the throws.”
That's been the biggest limitation for the Falcons this season. There are too many weapons for a veteran quarterback like Mariota to not get the job done. Mariota has completed fewer than 15 passes in six of nine games. Understandably, going to rookie Desmond Ridder isn't ideal in a division race, but the fact with Kyle Pitts and Drake London that Mariota has thrown for fewer than 150 yards three times this season is horrific.
But we have apparently gone back to the days of yesteryear where the NFC South is complete garbage, and the Panthers have found themselves in a worst spot than Atlanta. Carolina is coming off a 42-21 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals where my guess is they're still dreaming of Joe Mixon scoring touchdowns. The Bengals running back had five on the day and was every fantasy manager's dream. Or in the case of the Panthers, a pure nightmare.
Baker Mayfield returned to go 14 of 20 for 155 yards and two touchdowns after P.J. Walker went 3 of 10 for 9 yards and two interceptions to end that experiment. Carolina ran for 64 total yards, and a lad by the name of Terrace Marshall Jr. led with 53 yards and a touchdown on 3 catches.
“We weren’t setting edges on the defense,” interim coach Steve Wilks said. “We’ve got to understand, even though we’re in man-to-man, we’ve got to get a little wider. Inside, we can’t get reach. We’ve got to fight and play downhill as linebackers, using our hands to get off blocks. It was a combination of things.”
Prediction
The Panthers are sticking with Daniels, apparently, in a prime time game with huge division implications. Carolina is in full tank mode and won't be good enough to contain Atlanta's offense, no matter how limited. This should be a big day for the Falcons and they now know with Tampa Bay winning last week, every game is paramount. Falcons by 10
Betting trends
Falcons are 5-1 ATS this season against conference opponents.
Under is 76-46 when the Falcons play in November since 1992.
Panthers are 30-13 ATS all-time after trailing by 14 or more the last
Panthers are 10-2 all-time after allowing 40 points or more the previous game.
Statistical leaders
Falcons:
Passing: Marcus Mariota -- 1,561 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Tyler Allgeier -- 423 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Drake London -- 369 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Grady Jarrett -- 4.5 sacks
Panthers:
Passing: P.J. Walker -- 623 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: D'Onta Foreman -- 296 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: DJ Moore -- 449 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Brian Burns -- 6 sacks
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Atlanta Falcons - Carolina Panthers prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
