Game Time:  1:00 PM ET, Sunday, January 2nd, 2022

Venue: Bills Stadium, Buffalo, New York

Where to Watch:  FOX

 

FanDuel: point spread: NL

BetMGM: Bills -14; O/U 44.5 points

Caesars: Bills -14; O/U 44.5 points

 

Falcons: 7-8, 3rd place NFC South

Bills: 9-6, 1st place NFC East

The Falcons got a much needed win last weekend.  They beat the lowly Detroit Lions 20-16.  It was a loss ATS and it hit the Under, but it was a win.  They are now 1 game under .500 on the season.  Quarterback Matt Ryan puts up stats, but not many wins.  Rookie sensation tight end Kyle Pitts looks like a pro that will blossom into his high expectations.  Kyle leads the Falcons in receiving yards with 949, for a first year player that is nothing to sneeze at.  At 5-5 over the last ten games and on the edge of total mathematical playoff elimination… They are unlucky to draw the Buffalo Bills. A loss here and the fans in Atlanta should be prepared to send Matty Ice out with an ovation during next week’s home game and season finale against the New Orleans Saints.  This is a team due for a complete overhaul.

The Bills’ dream season had way more speed bumps and roadblocks than expected.  Yes, they are in first place in the AFC East, but not nearly as dominant as everyone predicted. In fact they are only in first place because they are tied with the New England Patriots whom they beat last weekend 33-21… The standings can and will change if the Bills drop either of their final two games.  Young QB Josh Allen is the real deal completing 65% of his passes and wracking up 34 TDs.. his 12 interceptions need to be cleaned up. The Bills are 5-5 over their last ten games.. A rate that will not get the job done.  Also a loss to the rotten Jacksonville Jaguars way back on November 7th with a final score of 9-6… is beginning to look like a billboard proclaiming “Anyone can beat this team”.  The Bills need to win out their final two games starting with the Falcons and like everyone they need to navigate possibly missing multiple players to Covid protocols while they do it.  Wide Receiver Cole Beasley became something of a poster child for ignorant dudes who didn’t want to get the vaccine this year.  And alas, during his team’s time of need he is unavailable because of Covid-19. 

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RECENT FORM

The Falcons are 7-8 on the season, but 6-9 ATS.  They have logged 6 Overs and 9 Unders.  They play much better on the road then they do at home with a mark of 5-3 in road games.

 

The Bills are 9-6 on the season, but 8-6-1 ATS.  They have notched 8 Overs and 7 Unders.  They are a middling 4-3 in home games.  Not the mark that a potential division winner would like.

 

The Falcons are 25th in the NFL in points with 18.5 per game, 24th in yards with 309.5 per game.  They break down to 16th in passing and a horrific 86.2 in rushing.  That plays right into the Bills strength as they have Micah Hyde roaming the passing lanes ready to poach any lazy pass offered up by Matty Ice.

The Bills are 3rd in the league in points with 28.5 per game, 6th in yards with 381.2 per game.  That breaks down to 7th in passing and 11th in rushing.  They have the offense needed to stomp all over the soft Falcons defense.

The Falcons have many holes in the defense.  They are 24th in allowing yards with 364.9 per game, 22nd in defending passing yards with 244 per game, 22nd in defending rushing yards with 120.9 per game…. And sadly they are 28th in allowing points at 26.7 per game.  This is a surprising endorsement of the Falcons offense… they have managed 7 wins with an atrocious defensive report card.

The Bills have a stellar defense.  They rank 1st in yards allowed with a stingy 287.9 per game, 1st in passing yards allowed with a stingier 173.1 per game.  The chink in the armor is they are 17th in defending the run.. Allowing 114.8 per game.  Of course this is a blessing against the Falcons that have absolutely no run game.  The Bills are comfortably ranked 3rd in defending points by only allowing 17.6 per game.

Our prediction for Monday, December 27th is… Bills 33 - Falcons 14

The Bills should be on notice that they must win to keep the season alive.  As long as Josh Allen doesn’t go down with Covid during the week… they should beat Atlanta and cover the spread.  They will be firing on all cylinders at home in familiar weather. Plus even if both rosters are depleted a bit, the Bills tend to be stronger in every area of the game.

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Atlanta is 3-6 ATS as an underdog this season.

Atlanta is 1-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

The Bills are 8-3 ATS when playing with 6 days or less rest this season.

The Bills are 4-1 ATS when playing a team with a losing record this season.

 

Falcons: WR Tajae Sharpe (foot) Day to Day ** DL Tyeler Davison (covid) Out ** DL Marlon Davidson (covid) Quest ** S Erik Harris (pectoral) Quest ** 

Bills: DT Star Lotulelei (personal) Day to Day ** G Ike Bottger (achilles) Out ** CB Tre’Davious White (knee) Out ** WR Gabriel Davis and WR Cole Beasley (covid) Out 

Falcons: QB Matt Ryan, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, FB Keith Smith, WR Russell Cage, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Kyle Pitts, LT Jake Matthews, LG Jalen Mayfield, C Matt Hennessy, RG Chris Lindstrom, RT Kaleb McGary

Falcons

Touchdowns: Cordarrelle Patterson 6

Rushing Yards: Cordarrelle Patterson 579

Passing Yards: Matt Ryan 3,555

Receiving Yards: Kyle Pitts 949

Sacks: Dante Fowler JR 4.5

Interceptions: Foyesade Oluokun 2

 

Scattered Showers.  41*, wind at 20 mph.  It’ll be cold and windy with rain in the air.