by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Dec 23, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Where to watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Ravens -6.5; Ravens -275, Falcons +230
FanDuel: Ravens -6.5; Ravens -280, Falcons +230
BetMGM: Ravens -6.5; Ravens -300, Falcons +240
Caesars: Ravens -6.5; Ravens -294, Falcons +235
Season record
Falcons: 5-9
Ravens: 9-5
We’re coming down the home stretch of the NFL season and there’s still a lot left to get excited for on your TV screen (or your streaming device if you’re like me and watch Sunday Ticket on a Fire Stick. That works, too). Nevertheless, the final few weeks of the regular season are going to be hectic for everyone on the field, but just as much as everyone off it. You’re probably going to need to figure out which plays are the best ones in terms of teams sitting the star players for the playoff advantage, or which teams are going all in for the final playoff push. If you need that extra push, trust that our champion handicappers can get the job done for you. Matt Fargo has a 17-9-0 run over the last 30 days in the NFL. Brian Bitler has continued to stay consistent, despite a wild, unpredictable season, by going 16-9-0. Do you want a piece of this action? Make sure to stay locked to bigal.com and follow our champion handicappers so you can be a champion, too!
Falcons - Ravens preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Falcons: lost 21-18 at Saints
Ravens: lost 13-3 at Browns
Falcons analysis
The Atlanta Falcons are coming into this week with a 5-9 record and their playoff hopes on the brink of collapse. The Desmond Ridder era did not start off well for them last week, as the rookie quarterback out of Cincinnati threw for 97 yards last week in the 21-18 loss to the New Orleans Saints. But it was the first time seemingly all year that the Falcons got something out of their running game. Rookie running back Tyler Allgeier ran for a career-high 139 yards and a touchdown despite the loss, showing that maybe there’s one element to the offense that can be salvaged this year. Ridder, playing in his first action in place of the injured Marcus Mariota, threw for 97 yards last week. The Falcons have lost five of their last six games and are 2-5-0 in their last seven against the spread. But it’s not like the spread has been wide. In six of their last seven games, the spread margin has been decided by 2.5 or less. The only time was when the Falcons were 2.5-point favorites on Nov. 10 in the 25-15 Thursday Night Football loss to the Carolina Panthers. The Falcons are clearly in a rebuild and were hoping to skirt by with deficiencies and lack of experience on offense, but it’doesn't look like there’s enough time – even with a favorable schedule to close out the season – that they can make something memorable out of this situation.
Ravens analysis
The Baltimore Ravens clearly miss Lamar Jackson. They’re coming into this week at 9-5 and are a game behind the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North. Since losing their MVP quarterback to injury, the Ravens have struggled heavily on offense under quarterback Tyler Huntley. Baltimore has averaged less than 10 points per game despite going 2-1, but last week’s 13-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns might have topped the cake. Huntley went 17 of 30 passing for 138 yards and threw an interception. Running back J.K. Dobbins was really the only one that could total anything on offense with 125 rushing yards on just 13 carries. If it were any other opponent, it wouldn’t make sense to bring Lamar Jackson back. The sense is he will be back for the home stretch, but considering this is a winnable game, all that matters is getting Jackson back for the season finale in Cincinnati where the AFC North is likely to be up for grabs. The Ravens play their final home game next week against Pittsburgh. The Ravens are 1-4 against the spread in their last five mostly due to playing below their competition. It goes beyond just not having Jackson. They were 13-point favorites in the 13-3 win over Carolina, and then blew the game against Jacksonville the following week as 3.5-point favorites. This is not a team that can be trusted at the books or even outright, at the very least, until Jackson returns.
Prediction
The under is very much the play here and it’s 4-0 in Atlanta’s last four December games and 5-1 overall. But until the Ravens show offense is a capability, I would consider taking the Falcons with the points. The Ravens are 0-6-1 in their last seven against the spread and the fact they’re laying that much with the quarterback situation doesn’t bode well for them. Ravens 14, Falcons 10
Betting trends
Falcons are 6-0 ATS on the road after losing 3 of their last 4 the last 3 seasons.
Falcons are 6-0 ATS off a loss to a division rival the last 2 seasons.
Ravens are 6-15 ATS as a favorite between 3.5 and 9.5 the last 2 seasons.
Ravens are 2-9 ATS as a home favorite the last 2 seasons.
Statistical leaders
Falcons:
Passing: Marcus Mariota – 2,219 yards, 15 TD, 9 INT
Rushing: Tyler Allgeier – 743 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Drake London – 603 yards, 4 TD
Defense: Grady Jarrett – 6 sacks
Ravens:
Passing: Lamar Jackson – 2,242 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Lamar Jackson – 764 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Mark Andrews – 702 yards, 5 TD
Defense: Justin Houston – 9 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
