Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/26/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Sunday September 26, 2021
Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA 
Where to Watch:  BSSD


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Braves +135, Padres -155; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Braves NL, Padres NL; Over/Under:  NL runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Braves NL, Padres NL; Over/Under:  NL runs

Season Record

Atlanta Braves:  81-72 (1st place NL East)
San Diego Padres:  78-76 (3rd place, NL West)
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Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Atlanta Braves:  5-5 last 10
San Diego Padres:  3-7 last 10

Atlanta Braves Analysis

The Braves are coming into this game after winning the series opener between these two on Friday. The Braves have now won 5 of their last 6 games. This will be the series finale of this three-game series on Sunday with the 2nd game still to be played on Saturday, that result is pending. Huascar Ynoa will be getting the nod for Saturday's game while there is no determined pitcher starting on the mound for them in this game on Sunday. The Braves took the first game of this series 4-0 against the Padres. They also took 3 games of the four-game series they were in with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Braves are currently leading the National League East division but they have the Philadelphia Phillies storming up behind them just 1.5 hames out of 1st place. The Braves need to work hard to hold down their lead because if they were to slip into 2nd place, they would be sitting 5 games out of the last Wild Card spot in the NL. They must focus all of their energy on winning their last few games of the regular season as they must hold down their spot or they will likely not be making it to the postseason. This series is very important to them as they will be facing the Phillies in a series right after this so this is their chance to get a few more games up on them. Their offense has scored 34 runs in their last 5 games averaging almost 7 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 13 runs against them in that same span allowing a little under 3 runs per game.

San Diego Padres Analysis

The Padres are coming into this game after losing the series opener against the Braves with game 2 of this series still to be played on Saturday. This will be the 3rd and final game of the series between them on Sunday. The Padres do not have a starter listed for Saturday's game but Joe Musgrove is scheduled to throw the first pitch for them in this game on Sunday. He is 11-9 with a 3.15 ERA this season and he has the most wins for a starting pitcher in their rotation this year. He was credited with just the win but his team has actually lost 2 of the last 3 games that he started. In his last start, he allowed 5 earned runs, 1 of them being a HR, and 3 BB with 6 Ks on 8 hits through 5.2 IP against the San Francisco Giants last Tuesday. This will be his first time facing the Braves lineup this season. Their offense has scored 18 runs in their last 4 games averaging over 4 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 24 runs against them in that same span allowing 6 runs per game.


Braves vs Padres Prediction

This is a must win game for both of these teams here. The Braves have just a 1.5 game lead over their division and if they slip they will not be able to grab a Wild Card spot as of right now. They need to keep winning games to spread the gap between them and the Phillies as they will be facing them next in a three-game series that could ultimately decide the division winner. The Padres also need to start winning games as they are now 7 games back from the St. Louis Cardinals in the last Wild Card spot and they have the Cincinnati Reds and the Phillies ahead of them. All hope seems pretty much lost as they keep losing games and that gap has gone from 1 game to now 7 in just a week's time. The best bet to place in this one is on the Braves to win as they have been more consistent in their recent games and have actually been winning.

Braves Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Sunday September 26, 2021 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Braves 5 Padres 2.
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MLB Betting Trends

Atlanta Braves: 223-169 (+14.6 units) on the money line in all games. 108-84 (+17.5 units) on the money line in road games.
San Diego Padres: 78-76 (-31.9 units) on the money line in all games. 45-34 (-9.9 units) on the money line in home games.

Key Injuries

Atlanta Braves:  E. Santana (RP) Out indefinitely - Personal. T. Toussaint (SP) Out indefinitely - Personal. G. Dayton (RP) Early Oct - Shoulder injury.
San Diego Padres:  A. Nola (C) out for season - Thumb injury. T. Wingenter (RP) Early Oct - Elbow injury. J. Ona (RF) Early Oct - Elbow injury. B. Snell (SP) Out indefinitely - Groin injury.

Players to Watch

Atlanta Braves: Adam Duvall is one player to watch in these matchups. He leads his team in home runs and in RBI. His team is still looking to clinch their division so look for him to have a big game here and help his team win with some hits and get on a streak.
San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. is one player to watch in this MLB game. He leads his team in home runs and in stolen bases. His team is spiralling and needs a win badly here so look for him to have some good at bats and help his team get that much needed win.

Notable Quotes

"I definitely know that it felt really good. It felt like we really had the advantage today, especially the situation where we're at in the year." - Max Fried after a win against the Padres on Friday.
"You always feel good with Tatis at the plate. That was just a great at-bat. He was on some pitches, laid off some tough pitches, got it to 3-2 and to be able to drive the ball a touch right of center — impressive. But we've seen him do it. Huge at-bat." - Jayce Tingler on the confidence he has in his players.

Starting Lineups

Atlanta Braves
J. Soler RF
F. Freeman 1B
O. Albies 2B
A. Riley 3B
A. Duvall LF
E. Rosario LF
T. d'Arnaud C
D. Swanson SS
M. Fried P
San Diego Padres
T. Pham LF
F. Tatis Jr. SS
J. Cronenworth 1B
M. Machado 3B
W. Myers RF
A. Frazier 2B
W. Rivas C
T. Grisham CF
R. Knehr P

Statistical Leaders

Atlanta Braves
Batting Average:  A. Riley (.302)
Hits:  F. Freeman (172)
Home Runs:  A. Duvall (38)
RBI:  A. Duvall (111)
Stolen Bases:  O. Albies (18)
Wins:  C. Morton (13)
Saves:  W. Smith (33)
ERA:  L. Jackson (2.01)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average:  A. Frazier (.305)
Hits:  A. Frazier (167)
Home Runs:  F. Tatis Jr. (41)
RBI:  M. Machado (96)
Stolen Bases:  F. Tatis Jr. (25)
Wins:  J. Musgrove (11)
Saves:  M. Melancon (38)
ERA:  D. Pomeranz (1.75)
Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (6th season)
San Diego Padres: Jayce Tingler (2nd season)

Weather Forecast

71 degrees F mostly sunny, 72% humidity, 10% chance of rain, up to 10 mph wind speeds SE.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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