Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/25/2021

by Big Al Staff

Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Saturday September 25, 2021
Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA 
Where to Watch:  Fox


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Braves +120, Padres -140; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Braves NL, Padres NL; Over/Under:  NL runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Braves NL, Padres NL; Over/Under:  NL runs

Season Record

Atlanta Braves:  80-71 (1st place NL East)
San Diego Padres:  77-75 (3rd place, NL West)
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Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Atlanta Braves:  5-5 last 10
San Diego Padres:  3-7 last 10

Atlanta Braves Analysis

The Braves are coming into this game after losing their series finale on Thursday night to the Arizona Diamondbacks. That loss snapped a 4 game win streak they were on. They ended up taking 3 of the 4 games in that four-game series against the D-backs. This will be the 2nd game of a three-game series they are playing against the Padres with the series opener being on Friday night. Max Fried will be the starter for Friday's game while Huascar Ynoa will be the starting pitcher on the mound in this game on Saturday. He is 4-5 with a 3.43 ERA this season. He has been credited with 4 straight losses in his starts and his team has lost 4 of the last 6 that he started in. In his last start, he allowed 3 ER and 2 BB with 2 Ks on 5 hits through 4 IP against the D-backs last Monday. This will be his first time facing the Padres lineup this season. The Braves' offense has scored 30 runs in their last 4 games averaging over 7 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 13 runs against them in that same span allowing a little over 3 runs per game. 

San Diego Padres Analysis

The Padres are coming into this game after winning against the San Francisco Giants in their series finale with them on Thursday. This will be the 2nd game of this series with the Braves with Friday's game yet to be played, the result still pending in that one. They also have a continuation before their Friday game from a game against the Braves in Atlanta that was suspended midway through and postponed to a later date. The Padres have a 5-4 lead in that first half-game and then will be playing their scheduled Friday game right after. Reiss Knehr is scheduled to be the starter for the game being continued while they do not have an assigned pitcher for the game right after on Friday. As a result, they have not announced a starter on the mound in this game on Saturday either. The Padres have not been playing well at all in recent weeks. They were holding down the final Wild Card spot in the NL for most of the season until just a few weeks ago when they started to lose games. The more games they started to lose they began to spiral out of control and as a result, they are now 6 games behind that last spot that is occupied by the St. Louis Cardinals currently, and they still have the Cincinnati Reds and the Philadelphia Phillies to go through ahead of them. Their chances are very slim to make the postseason and they will not have any chance if they continue to lose games and play the way they are playing right now. They have scored 18 runs in their last 3 games averaging 6 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 20 runs against them in that same span allowing almost 7 runs per game.


Braves vs Padres Prediction

The Padres have not really played that well in this final stretch. The Braves have not been playing lights out either but, they are still in much better form than the Padres. The Padres will be desperate to win this game but the Braves also need to keep pushing as they have the Phillies knocking on their door for the division lead in the NL East. They need to keep winning games as well and since they are just playing better at the moment, the best bet to make here is on the Braves as the Padres will continue to lose and go further down the rabbit hole.

Braves Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday September 25, 2021 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Braves 6 Padres 4.
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MLB Betting Trends

Atlanta Braves: 43-35 (+5.4 units) on the money line in road games. 24-10 (+12.7 units) on the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10.
San Diego Padres: 77-75 (-32 units) on the money line in all games. 65-49 (-20.5 units) on the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher.

Key Injuries

Atlanta Braves:  E. Santana (RP) Out indefinitely - Personal. T. Toussaint (SP) Out indefinitely - Personal. G. Dayton (RP) Early Oct - Shoulder injury.
San Diego Padres:  T. Wingenter (RP) Early Oct - Elbow injury. J. Ona (RF) Early Oct - Elbow injury. B. Snell (SP) Out indefinitely - Groin injury.

Players to Watch

Atlanta Braves: Ozzie Albies is one player to watch in this game. He leads his team in stolen bases and he also is very good with his plate appearances. Look for him to get into scoring position here as he can be a very dangerous player on base.
San Diego Padres: Adam Frazier is one player to watch in this one. He leads his team in batting average and in hits. His team needs some wins badly here so look for him to get on base and give his team a chance to come out as the winners of this game.

Notable Quotes

"You have to have a short memory. We came in here to win the series and we did that." - Brian Snitker after his team lost the series finale against the D-backs.
"Our season's on the line. Everything's on the line, so it's easy to stay engaged. We're trying to get to the playoffs and win a World Series." - Trent Grisham after a win against the Giants.

Starting Lineups

Atlanta Braves
J. Soler RF
F. Freeman 1B
O. Albies 2B
A. Riley 3B
A. Duvall LF
T. d'Arnaud C
D. Swanson SS
G. Heredia CF
C. Morton P
San Diego Padres
A. Frazier LF
J. Cronenworth 2B
F. Tatis Jr. SS
E . Hosmer 1B
J. Profar RF
T. Grisham CF
H. Kim 3B
V. Caratini C
Y. Darvish P

Statistical Leaders

Atlanta Braves
Batting Average:  F. Freeman (.302)
Hits:  F. Freeman (172)
Home Runs:  A. Duvall (37)
RBI:  A. Duvall (109)
Stolen Bases:  O. Albies (17)
Wins:  C. Morton (13)
Saves:  W. Smith (33)
ERA:  L. Jackson (2.01)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average:  A. Frazier (.306)
Hits:  A. Frazier (167)
Home Runs:  F. Tatis Jr. (40)
RBI:  M. Machado (96)
Stolen Bases:  F. Tatis Jr. (25)
Wins:  J. Musgrove (11)
Saves:  M. Melancon (37)
ERA:  D. Pomeranz (1.75)
Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (6th season)
San Diego Padres: Jayce Tingler (2nd season)

Weather Forecast

70 degrees F partly cloudy, 72% humidity, 20% chance of rain, up to 6 mph wind speeds SE.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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