Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/24/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 10:10 pm ET, Friday September 24, 2021
Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA 
Where to Watch:  BSSO


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Braves NL, Padres NL; Over/Under:  NL runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Braves NL, Padres NL; Over/Under:  NL runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Braves NL, Padres NL; Over/Under:  NL runs

Season Record

Atlanta Braves:  80-71 (1st place NL East)
San Diego Padres:  77-75 (3rd place, NL West)
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Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Atlanta Braves:  5-5 last 10
San Diego Padres:  3-7 last 10

Atlanta Braves Analysis

The Braves are coming into this game after losing to the D-backs on Thursday. This will be the series opener of a three-game series between them and the Padres. That loss snapped a 4 game winning streak they were on with 3 of those wins coming against the D-backs and the other against the San Francisco Giants. Charlie Morton got the nod for Thursday's game while there is no assigned starting pitcher on the mound for the Braves yet in this game on Friday. The Braves will have to come to play regardless of who is starting for them. Before this game begins they will be continuing a suspended game that was postponed from back in Atlanta where the Padres have a 5-4 lead against them. Their focus will be on that game first but once it is over their focus will shift to this game right after. They need every win they can get right now as they currently lead their division but they have the Philadelphia Phillies breathing down their necks and if they catch them there likely will not be a Wild Card spot left for the Braves. Their offense has scored 30 runs in their last 4 games averaging over 7 runs scored per game in that span while they have allowed their opponents to score 13 runs against them in that same span allowing a little over 3 runs per game.

San Diego Padres Analysis

The Padres are coming into this game after a win against the San Francisco Giants on Thursday. That win snapped a 5 game losing streak that they were on after losing their series with the Giants and the Cardinals before that. This will be the first game of a three-game series between them and the Braves. Yu Darvish was the starter on Thursday while Reiss Knehr will be throwing the first pitch for them in this game on Friday. He is a rookie pitcher with a 1-0 record and a 3.93 ERA this season and in his career. He was credited with the 1 win but his team has lost the last 3 straight when he was pitching and also 5 of his last 6 appearances. Most of his appearances have been as a reliever but he has been the starting pitcher in 2 games this season and the Padres won both of those games. In his last appearance, he allowed 2 ER and 2 BB with 0 strikeouts on 1 hit through 1 IP against the LA Dodgers back in August. He has not faced the Braves lineup before ever in his career. The Padres offense has scored 18 runs in their last 3 games averaging 6 runs scored per game in that span while they have allowed their opponents to score 20 runs against them in that same span allowing almost 7 runs per game.


Braves vs Padres Prediction

The Padres playoff hopes are slipping away with each game especially when they have been losing so many games in this final stretch. The Braves still have something to play for as they try to lock down their division title before the Phillies sneak up from behind them. The Braves have also been playing much better than the Padres have been recently. The only bet to place here is on the Braves as the Padres will keep losing games unable to break the slump they are in as more and more pressure mounts on them to make a bigger playoff push.
Braves Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday September 24, 2021 (10:10 pm ET start time) is Braves 4 Padres 1.
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MLB Betting Trends

Atlanta Braves: 43-34 (+7.4 units) on the money line in road games. 42-29 (+5.1 units) on the money line in the second half of the season.
San Diego Padres: 65-49 (-20.5 units) on the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher. 55-47 (-13.3 units) on the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5.

Key Injuries

Atlanta Braves:  E. Santana (RP) Out indefinitely - Personal. T. Toussaint (SP) Out indefinitely - Personal. G. Dayton (RP) Early Oct - Shoulder injury.
San Diego Padres:  T. Wingenter (RP) Early Oct - Elbow injury. J. Ona (RF) Early Oct - Elbow injury. B. Snell (SP) Out indefinitely - Groin injury.

Players to Watch

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman is one player to watch in this game. He leads his team in batting average and in hits. He will need to keep up his good hitting if he wants to help secure his team’s spot in the playoffs so look for him to make some big hits here and get on base.
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado is one player to watch here. He leads his team in RBI and he will need to get some here to help his team break the slump that they are in. They really need to start winning games badly so look for him to step up here and bring in some runs for his team.

Notable Quotes

"Ozzie's that boring pro. Comes to work, his attitude is off the charts. He brings the energy every day. He never has a bad day." - Brian Snitker on Ozzie Albies.
"I wish I could celebrate in a different story, but it's been a long year, a lot of ups and downs, especially coming back from those injuries. At the end of the day, I'm pretty happy with the results and how I bounced back and this is history. It's something to celebrate." - Fernando Tatis Jr. on his shoulder injury after a loss on Wednesday.

Starting Lineups

Atlanta Braves
J. Soler RF
F. Freeman 1B
O. Albies 2B
A. Riley 3B
A. Duvall LF
T. d'Arnaud C
D. Swanson SS
G. Heredia CF
C. Morton P
San Diego Padres
A. Frazier LF
J. Cronenworth 2B
F. Tatis Jr. SS
E . Hosmer 1B
J. Profar RF
T. Grisham CF
H. Kim 3B
V. Caratini C
Y. Darvish P

Statistical Leaders

Atlanta Braves
Batting Average:  F. Freeman (.302)
Hits:  F. Freeman (172)
Home Runs:  A. Duvall (37)
RBI:  A. Duvall (109)
Stolen Bases:  O. Albies (17)
Wins:  C. Morton (13)
Saves:  W. Smith (33)
ERA:  L. Jackson (2.01)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average:  A. Frazier (.306)
Hits:  A. Frazier (167)
Home Runs:  F. Tatis Jr. (40)
RBI:  M. Machado (96)
Stolen Bases:  F. Tatis Jr. (25)
Wins:  J. Musgrove (11)
Saves:  M. Melancon (37)
ERA:  D. Pomeranz (1.75)
Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (6th season)
San Diego Padres: Jayce Tingler (2nd season)

Weather Forecast

69 degrees F mostly sunny, 70% humidity, 10% chance of rain, up to 6 mph wind speeds E.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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