Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 9/25/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Where to watch: Bally Sports South, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Braves -125, Braves +105
FanDuel: Braves -126, Braves +108
BetMGM: Braves -128, Braves +105
Caesars: Braves -125, Phillies +105

Season record
Braves: 94-58
Phillies: 83-68

We're coming down to the wire in the MLB season. Playoff races are heating up, pennant races are still to be decided, and MVP cases are still to be made. Are you in the right headspace to finish strong entering the postseason? Look no further than what Al McMordie has done as of late, going 53-37 in his last 90 in MLB plays! You know you want that type of winning in your life. Make sure you check out Al's and our other champion handicappers to see who they have down the stretch this season

Braves - Phillies preview and analysis


That’s much better from the Atlanta Braves, and all it took was Kyle Wright to pitch another gem to win his 20th game for the Braves to get back on track. Sometimes baseball is a funny sport. You just need your star players to pick up the slack and remind everyone that things aren’t completely bleak.

And when you look at the Braves putting up six runs and winning 6-3 over the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday, coupled with the New York Mets losing 10-4 to the Oakland Athletics on Saturday, the Braves are not out of this just yet and that might be a blessing in disguise as it pertains to the National League East race.

The Braves put up 14 hits and got six runs in innings 2-4 in their win. Dansby Swanson had two hits, William Contreras went 3-for-4 with two RBI, and Michael Harris II also went 3-for-4 with two RBI in the win.

But the story belonged to Wright, who may have just clinched the NL Cy Young by reaching 20 wins. You won’t find many pitchers not win the trophy with a 20-win ledger. The 3.18 ERA may hinder his chances, but he  went 5.1 innings and struck out six while giving up just two runs to a Philadelphia batting order that was looking really good.

"I don't know if I realized how cool it was until my teammates and coaches congratulated me real quick afterward," Wright said. "It's a team stat and I couldn't have done it without them scoring runs and playing defense."

The Braves are now back to 1.5 games behind the Mets for the division lead with a three-game series coming next weekend. The Phillies are still hovering around that wild card positioning.

"We still have to take one foot ahead of the other," Wright said. "It is like we are in postseason baseball right now. We've clinched our spot but hopefully we can continue winning and hopefully we can bypass that first round."

"The experience that he got last year is the biggest thing that has happened to him," Braves manager Brian Snitker said. "He sprung-board off the World Series when he won that big game (Game 4, a 3-2 win over Houston) for us and he learned he was pretty good. And he came to spring training a different guy and it's carried him to now. Hopefully, he gets a couple of more."

Meanwhile, it was not the best of days offensively for the Phillies. Just three hits, one of them being a Bryce Harper two-run homer, but there was no real help for starter Bailey Falter. The young pitcher just went 3.2 innings and gave up all six runs on 10 hits.

"Bailey threw some bad pitches that he normally does make," Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson said. "I was happy with our bullpen. They kept us in the game and we got the tying run to the plate."

Prediction


Charlie Morton and Kyle Gibson will face off, a battle of two pitchers that could use solid games to show how reliable they can be in the playoffs. With Gibson’s ERA closing near 5.00, Morton wouldn’t be a bad play here. Atlanta may have finally found a groove. Braves win 6-4

Betting trends


Braves are 82-36 when favored this season.

Braves are 41-24 against division opponents this season.

Phillies are 7-8 as a home underdog this season.

Phillies are 19-20 when an underdog between +100 and +150 this season.

Projected lineup


Braves:
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
William Contreras (R) DH
Austin Riley (R) 3B
Travis d'Arnaud (R) C
Matt Olson (L) 1B
Vaughn Grissom (R) 2B
Michael Harris II (L) CF
Marcell Ozuna (R) LF
Robbie Grossman (S) RF

Phillies:
Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
Rhys Hoskins (R) 1B
Alec Bohm (R) 3B
Bryce Harper (L) DH
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Jean Segura (R) 2B
Matt Vierling (R) CF
Bryson Stott (L) SS
Dalton Guthrie (R) RF

Statistical leaders


Braves:
Batting average: Austin Riley -- .280
Home runs: Austin Riley -- 37
RBI: Austin Riley -- 92
Wins: Kyle Wright -- 20
ERA: Max Fried -- 2.50

Phillies:
Batting average: Alec Bohm -- .290
Home runs: Kyle Schwarber -- 40
RBI: Kyle Schwarber -- 85
Wins: Zack Wheeler -- 11
ERA: Aaron Nola -- 3.28

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert MLB picks today. And if you enjoyed this Atlanta Braves - Philadelphia Phillies preview, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and predictions.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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