Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 9/24/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Where to watch: Bally Sports South, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Braves -135, Phillies +115
FanDuel: Braves -138, Phillies +118
BetMGM: Braves -139, Phillies +115
Caesars: Braves -135, Phillies +115

Season record
Braves: 93-58
Phillies: 83-67

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Braves - Phillies preview and analysis


The Philadelphia Phillies are apparently ready to get under the skin of a lot of teams. Because if they keep winning like this against the Atlanta Braves, maybe the NL East might be more dominant than we anticipated, and for that we can all agree that baseball is weird.

The Phillies defeated the Braves 9-1 on Friday night to take the first two games of this series in a rather shocking way. Meanwhile, the New York Mets won on Friday and have added some further distance between themselves and the Braves for the NL East lead. Let the Flushing area rejoice.

The Phillies scored four times in the second and four more times in the fourth to rough up Jake Odorizzi, who lasted only those four innings. Rhys Hoskins hit a homer to bring in two, and had a two-RBI double in his previous at-bat. The Braves lost their third straight game and have scored a grand total of three runs in that stint.

“If you handle adversity, there’s good things on the back end of it,” Atlanta manager Brian Snitker said. “We’ll keep fighting and get 'er going again.”

They’re going to need to get ‘er going if they want to make a run at the division title. With the Mets in Oakland to take on the lowly Athletics, it shouldn’t take much for New York to completely overwhelm this group and pad the lead.

Atlanta had just six hits in the game with Austin Riley having two of them. The star slugger was the only one to have more than one hit, and no one else could get going. Somehow, the offense has gone completely cold and the bats need to wake up in October much like they did last year. It’s only a few games away from the Braves hosting a play-in series.

“Too many pitches, too many long counts, couldn’t put hitters away,” Snitker said of his starter. “Just wasn’t his day.”

But this is about the Phillies and their sudden surge to close the regular season. They’re now a half game up on the San Diego Padres for the second wild card in the National League, closing in on home-field advantage for the best-of-3.

Aaron Nola struck out eight over the course of six innings while throwing 104 pitches. Hoskins was 3-for-4 with the two extra base hits.

“Stay on the winning train,” Nola said. “Every game matters right now. We have to stay focused on tomorrow. Win a game tomorrow.”

It might be difficult for the Phillies to do that again with the Braves reaching the heart of the pitching rotation. Kyle Wright, one of the leading candidates for NL Cy Young at 19-5 with a 3.18 ERA, will take the mound for the Braves. Facing him will be left-hander Bailey Falter. The latter comes in with a 5-3 record and an ERA of 3.68.

“It was nice to jump on them early,” Hoskins said. “A better sign is we didn’t stop. We continued to add on.”

Prediction


At some point, the Braves’ bats are going to wake up and it helps that their best pitcher will be on the mound. Take the Braves in what should be a really good game. Braves win 5-4

Betting trends


Braves are 81-36 when favored this season.

Braves are 40-24 against division opponents this season.

Phillies are 7-7 as a home underdog this season.

Phillies are 19-19 when an underdog between +100 and +150 this season.

Projected lineup


Braves:
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
William Contreras (R) DH
Austin Riley (R) 3B
Travis d'Arnaud (R) C
Matt Olson (L) 1B
Vaughn Grissom (R) 2B
Michael Harris II (L) CF
Marcell Ozuna (R) LF
Robbie Grossman (S) RF

Phillies:
Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
Rhys Hoskins (R) 1B
Alec Bohm (R) 3B
Bryce Harper (L) DH
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Jean Segura (R) 2B
Matt Vierling (R) CF
Bryson Stott (L) SS
Dalton Guthrie (R) RF

Statistical leaders


Braves:
Batting average: Austin Riley -- .282
Home runs: Austin Riley -- 37
RBI: Austin Riley -- 92
Wins: Kyle Wright -- 19
ERA: Max Fried -- 2.50

Phillies:
Batting average: Alec Bohm -- .289
Home runs: Kyle Schwarber -- 40
RBI: Kyle Schwarber -- 85
Wins: Zack Wheeler -- 11
ERA: Aaron Nola -- 3.28

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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