Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/12/2023

Game Time: 6:07 pm ET, Thursday, October 12, 2023

Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

Where to Watch:  TBS

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Braves -155, Phillies +130; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Braves -150, Phillies +130; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Braves -150, Phillies +125; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Atlanta Braves:  104-58 (1st place, NL East)

Philadelphia Phillies:  90-72 (2nd place, NL East)

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Atlanta Braves:  6-4 last 10

Philadelphia Phillies:  6-4 last 10

The Braves are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 104-58 record overall and had a road record of 52-29. This is the 4th game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Phillies on Thursday for the NL Division Series and they won game 2 of this series on Monday but lost game 1 and game 3 on Saturday and Wednesday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .845 OPS. Bryce Elder was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Spencer Strider is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB playoff start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 2 BB with 8 strikeouts on 5 hits through 7 innings played against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies are entering this series on a 3 game winning streak and won their best 2 out of 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 2-0 in the NL Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with a 90-72 record overall and had a home record of 49-32. This is the 4th game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Braves on Thursday for the NL Division Series and lost game 2 of this series on Monday but won game 1 and game 3 on Saturday and Wednesday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .765 OPS. Aaron Nola was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Ranger Suárez is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB playoff start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 4 Ks on 1 hit through 3.2 IP against the Atlanta Braves.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies are leading this series 2-1 after stealing a road game in Atlanta and winning last night so they have pushed the Braves to the brink of elimination once again. The Braves were the best team in the MLB during the regular season with the best record and the best offense but their offense has been quiet in these playoff games while the Phillies have been red hot. The Phillies have also had some great pitching in this series as they haven't been giving up many runs while the Braves have been giving up a ton of runs and the Phillies still have the home advantage here. All the momentum in this series is with the Phillies right now as they are the hotter team and they will be really motivated to end this series here in Philadelphia and avoid going back to Atlanta for game 5. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game. 

Braves Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, October 12, 2023 (6:07 pm ET start time) is Phillies 6 Braves 4.

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Atlanta Braves: 105-60 (+7.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 42-21 (+11.6 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -125 to -175. 24-13 OVER after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more. 31-17 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5.

Philadelphia Phillies: 29-28 (-5.8 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 3-6 (-6.6 units) on the moneyline after a game they hit 4 or more home runs. 8-4 OVER as a home underdog of +100 or higher. 16-10 OVER in October games. 

Atlanta Braves:  K. Wright (SP) out for season - Shoulder. N. Anderson (SP) Late Oct - Shoulder. J. Stephens (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. C. Morton (SP) Out indefinitely - Finger. D. Lee (SP) out for season - Shoulder. M. Soroka (SP) out for season - Forearm. Y. Chirinos (SP) out for season - Elbow. S. Hilliard (LF) Out indefinitely - Heel. K. Allard (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Matzek (RP) out for season - Elbow. H. Ynoa (SP) out for season - Elbow.

Philadelphia Phillies:  E. Uelmen (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.

“He’s a Hall of Famer. He's one of those guys that loves that stage. He’s a special player. You put him in the spotlight, and he’s going to shine.” - Brian Snitker after his team’s loss against the Phillies in game 3 of this series on Wednesday.

“(Harper's) one of the best in the world for a reason. When we're in these moments, this is baseball at its best for him. When it's at his best for him, anything can happen.” - Kyle Schwarber on Bryce Harper after their win against the Braves in game 3 of this series on Wednesday.

Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) RF

Ozzie Albies (S) 2B

Austin Riley (R) 3B

Matt Olson (L) 1B

Marcell Ozuna (R) DH

Travis d'Arnaud (R) C

Eddie Rosario (L) LF

Orlando Arcia (R) SS

Michael Harris II (L) CF

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Trea Turner (R) SS

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Cristian Pache (R) LF

Johan Rojas (R) CF

Batting Average:  Charlie Culberson (1.000)

Hits:  Ronald Acuna (217)

Home Runs:  Matt Olson (54)

RBI:  Matt Olson (139)

Stolen Bases:  Ronald Acuna (73)

Wins:  Spencer Strider (20)

Saves:  Raisel Iglesias (33)

ERA:  Pierce Johnson (0.76)

Batting Average:  Weston Wilson (.313)

Hits:  Nick Castellanos (170)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (47)

RBI:  Nick Castellanos (106)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (31)

Wins:  Taijuan Walker (15)

Saves:  Craig Kimbrel (23)

ERA:  Orion Kerkering (0.00)

Managers:

Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (8th season)

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)