by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 10, 2023
Game Time: 5:07 pm ET, Wednesday, October 11, 2023
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Where to Watch: TBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Braves +102, Phillies -122; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Braves +105, Phillies -125; Over/Under: 9 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Braves +105, Phillies -125; Over/Under: 9 runs
Season Record
Atlanta Braves: 104-58 (1st place, NL East)
Philadelphia Phillies: 90-72 (2nd place, NL East)
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Recent Form
Atlanta Braves: 6-4 last 10
Philadelphia Phillies: 6-4 last 10
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview and Analysis
The Braves are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 104-58 record overall and had a road record of 52-29. This is the 3rd game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Phillies on Wednesday for the NL Division Series and they lost game 1 of this series on Saturday but won game 2 on Monday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .845 OPS. Max Fried was their starting pitcher on Monday while Bryce Elder is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 earned runs, 0 homers, and 4 BB with 2 strikeouts on 7 hits through 3.2 innings played against the Chicago Cubs.
The Phillies are entering this series on a 3 game winning streak and won their best 2 out of 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 2-0 in the NL Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with a 90-72 record overall and had a home record of 49-32. This is the 3rd game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Braves on Wednesday for the NL Division Series and they won game 1 of this series on Saturday but lost game 2 on Monday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .765 OPS. Zack Wheeler was their starting pitcher on Monday while Aaron Nola is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA this season. His team won their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB playoff start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 3 Ks on 3 hits through 7 IP against the Miami Marlins.
Braves vs Phillies Prediction
The current betting odds have the Braves listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Braves were the best team in the MLB all season with the best overall record and the best offense too. They enter this game tied 1-1 in the series after salvaging game 2 but they are going to have some momentum behind them after pulling off that win at home. They are going on the road now but they have to win a road game in this series to steal the home advantage back and they did get the win with the Phillies best pitcher on the mound. Now the Phillies have Nola starting and he was great in his start against the Marlins but the Braves have a much better offense than the Marlins and Nola hasn't really been that great this year. The Braves also have Elder starting who has been a stud on the mound for them all season and there is just too much value on the Braves as an underdog considering how they are the best team in the MLB. The best way to place a bet here is on the Braves to win this game and take a 2-1 series lead.
Braves Phillies Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, October 11, 2023 (5:07 pm ET start time) is Braves 4 Phillies 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
Atlanta Braves: 105-59 (+8.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 38-20 (+8.3 units) on the moneyline after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. 37-20 OVER after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. 13-5 OVER after two straight games where they had 5 or less hits.
Philadelphia Phillies: 28-28 (-6.8 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 40-37 (-11.8 units) on the moneyline when the total is 9 to 9.5. AARON NOLA is 8-2 OVER when the money line is -100 to -150 and 20-11 OVER in all games.
Key Injuries
Atlanta Braves: K. Wright (SP) out for season - Shoulder. N. Anderson (SP) Mid Oct - Shoulder. J. Stephens (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. C. Morton (SP) Out indefinitely - Finger. D. Lee (SP) out for season - Shoulder. M. Soroka (SP) out for season - Forearm. Y. Chirinos (SP) out for season - Elbow. S. Hilliard (LF) Out indefinitely - Heel. K. Allard (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Matzek (RP) out for season - Elbow. H. Ynoa (SP) out for season - Elbow.
Philadelphia Phillies: E. Uelmen (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“I just have faith in those guys. You know what? They give you a hard 27 (outs). ... They’re never going to stop fighting in the batter’s box.” - Brian Snitker after his team’s win against the Phillies in game 2 of this series on Monday.
“Usually you don’t pass the base. You stay in front of it, make sure it’s not caught. But he thought the ball was clearly over his head, didn’t think he was going to catch it. And Harris made a heck of a play. Unbelievable.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s loss against the Braves in game 2 of this series on Monday.
Starting Lineups
Atlanta Braves
Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) RF
Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
Austin Riley (R) 3B
Matt Olson (L) 1B
Marcell Ozuna (R) DH
Travis d'Arnaud (R) C
Eddie Rosario (L) LF
Orlando Arcia (R) SS
Michael Harris II (L) CF
Philadelphia Phillies
Kyle Schwarber (L) DH
Trea Turner (R) SS
Alec Bohm (R) 3B
Bryce Harper (L) 1B
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
Bryson Stott (L) 2B
Cristian Pache (R) LF
Johan Rojas (R) CF
Statistical Leaders
Atlanta Braves
Batting Average: Charlie Culberson (1.000)
Hits: Ronald Acuna (217)
Home Runs: Matt Olson (54)
RBI: Matt Olson (139)
Stolen Bases: Ronald Acuna (73)
Wins: Spencer Strider (20)
Saves: Raisel Iglesias (33)
ERA: Pierce Johnson (0.76)
Philadelphia Phillies
Batting Average: Weston Wilson (.313)
Hits: Nick Castellanos (170)
Home Runs: Kyle Schwarber (47)
RBI: Nick Castellanos (106)
Stolen Bases: Bryson Stott (31)
Wins: Taijuan Walker (15)
Saves: Craig Kimbrel (23)
ERA: Orion Kerkering (0.00)
Managers:
Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (8th season)
Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
