by ASA, Inc.
ASA's NFL NOTES
NFL – Underdogs went 12-4 the first week of the season – 9 of those dogs won outright! The average point total for week 1 of the NFL was 47.8. Last year games averaged 49.6 total points which was the highest mark ever. Four games last week reached at least 60 points and one game topped 70 points (SF vs Detroit).
RAVENS – QB Lamar Jackson has not thrown for more than 250 yards in 17 straight games. Their loss @ Las Vegas as a favorite was the first time the Ravens have lost a season opener in 5 years. They are now a +3.5 home dog this week vs KC. Last year they were a -3.5 home favorite vs Chiefs. Dating back to 2015, Baltimore is 4-1 both SU & ATS as a home underdog.
SAINTS – A few of their offensive coaches have tested positive for Covid. Something to watch as this week progresses. Jameis Winston didn’t have huge numbers yardage wise in the Saints 38-3 win over the Packers (148 yards passing) but he did throw for 5 TD’s. He did so on just 20 attempts so every 4th pass attempt for Winston was a TD. Even more importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over. In his 72 previous games as a starter Winston turned the ball over 119 times by HIMSELF. If he protects the ball, he can be very good.
FALCONS – Atlanta was expected to be very solid offensively under new HC Smith who was the OC at Tennessee last year. They looked OK to start the game last week kicking FG’s on their first two drives vs Philadelphia. However, the Falcons gained only 77 total yards on their final 9 offensive possessions after getting 6 points on the board.
STEELERS – Pittsburgh went into Buffalo and won outright as a 6.5 point dog last week. They are now 99-75-4 ATS as a road underdog since 1980 (57%). The Steelers were outgained by 120 yards in their win @ Buffalo but they also ran 24 fewer offensive snaps so the YPP numbers were about dead even.
LIONS – Detroit was down 41-17 at home vs San Francisco on Sunday. The final score? 41-33! Detroit scored 16 points in the final 1:53 of the game AND had the ball at the Niner 24-yard line to end the game. The Lions gained 191 of their 430 total yards on their final 3 possessions. Detroit was +7.5 for much of the week but moved to +9.5 on gameday so those final 16 points were big for a number of bettors, win or lose.
TITANS – Tennessee scored just 13 points and averaged only 3.9 YPP in their season opening blowout loss at home to Arizona. This from an offense that averaged 29.6 PPG on 6.1 YPP a year ago. Their OC from last year (Smith) is now the head coach at Atlanta and the new OC Downing was the Titans TE’s coach last year and has only 1 year of experience as a NFL OC (Raiders in 2017). Something to keep an eye on.
SEAHAWKS – Seattle ran 18 fewer offensive snaps on Sunday and still controlled the game beating Indianapolis 28-16 on the road. The Seahawks averaged a whopping 7.2 YPP to just 4.7 YPP for the Colts. Impressive stats vs an Indy defense that allowed 5.4 YPP a year ago. Great debut for new OC Waldron who came over from the LA Rams where he was the passing game coordinator.
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM – Well the exciting off-season acquisition of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to jumpstart the offense when by the wayside quickly on Sunday. Fitzpatrick left with a hip injury in the 2nd quarter after leading Washington to 2 FG’s in their first 3 drives. He is now likely out for a few months. Taylor Heinicke, who has 2 career starts, will now take over at QB.
BROWNS – Cleveland’s offense looked great on Sunday putting up 457 yards on a ridiculous 8.2 YPP and LOST. Turnovers were the difference as they are in many NFL games. The Browns had a fumble which led to a 23 yard FG drive for KC, the punter dropped a snap which led to a 15 yard KC TD drive, and QB Mayfield threw an interception on the final drive of the game which basically ended the game giving the Chiefs a 33-29 win. KC’s first and only lead came with 7:00 minutes to go in the game.