ASA's NFL MVP Thoughts

We've selected one of the favorites, a middle tier option, and a longer shot to win this year's MVP race...

Favorite - Joe Burrow +900

Burrow has been fantastic since entering the NFL in 2020, sporting a 3:1 TD-to-INT ratio as well as the third-highest career passer rating in league history at 101.1. Yet, he is looked down upon because he cannot stay on the field, having played a full season in only three of his six years. In 2024, Burrow’s last full season, he finished fourth in MVP voting despite throwing for nearly 5,000 yards and accounting for 45 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions. That stat line is almost identical to Matthew Stafford's 2025 MVP season. Looking at 2026, Cincinnati will again have one of the best offenses in the league, with plenty of firepower for Burrow, including the highest-paid WR duo in history in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals need to keep their generational QB upright, but if they can do that, they have a great chance to surpass their 9.5 win total. In that case, expect nearly 5,000 yards 40+ touchdowns and single digit interceptions, which puts Joey B near the top of the MVP conversation. 

Love is another young QB who has somewhat quietly had three really strong seasons to start his career. He has a solid 2.6:1 TD-to-INT ratio with a 96.8 passer rating, surprisingly ranking him 12th in NFL history. The Packers have historically been an extremely run-heavy team, ranking 27th and 30th in pass attempts the past two seasons. However, with the aging Josh Jacobs and a loaded NFC North, Love will be asked to carry more of the offensive load as he begins his fourth season as a starting QB. If Green Bay increases their passing volume to even league average, it will allow Love the opportunity to produce MVP-caliber numbers (4500+ yards, 35+ TDs, 12 or fewer INTs) provided his efficiency remains. Tucker Kraft, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Matthew Golden make up a formidable room of pass catchers that would pave the way for a longshot like Love to win. He currently is tenth in MVP odds. 

First and foremost, volume is the reason Nix has an opportunity to produce MVP numbers. As a rookie, he was sixth in total pass attempts, gaining even more trust from head coach Sean Payton in his second year, as he threw the ball more than any other QB in the NFL last season. Nix is entering his third season with the 16th-best odds to win MVP, however, not many other QBs possess the passing volume to accumulate MVP-caliber stats while playing on an elite team that can highlight their potentially stellar quarterback play. Denver won 14 games a year ago. If the Broncos can fight for the AFC West title once again while Nix becomes more efficient with his opportunities, there is value to be had here. The addition of Jaylen Waddle adds more firepower to this offense with the extra bonus being Nix’s rushing ability – nine rushing touchdowns in the past two years.