Around the WNBA + Futures Pick

With the WNBA on break for the women's World Cup, here is a quick look at what is happening around the league through the first 300 games of the season. If you're only interested in my futures pick, scroll to the bottom.

League Trends

  - Underdogs: Underdogs have cashed at roughly a 55% clip, with home underdogs and those getting 10 or more points faring particularly well.
  - Favorites: Road favorites have consistently hurt their backers.
  - Standings Gap: There is a significant gap between the top and bottom of the league. The top eight teams are all winning at least 60% of their games, while the bottom seven are all at 40% or less. The championship-favorite Lynx lead at 31-9, while the Storm sit at the bottom at 8-32.

Top 3 Most Profitable Teams (Against the Spread)

1.  Washington: 24-16 ATS
2.  Golden State: 23-17 ATS
3.  Minnesota: 23-17 ATS
    Note: Defense equals profits. These are also the league's three best defensive teams. Golden State allows a league-low 76.3 ppg, followed by Washington (83.1) and New York (83.3).

Top 3 Least Profitable Teams (Against the Spread)

1.  New York: 14-26 ATS
2.  Atlanta: 16-24 ATS
3.  Phoenix: 17-23 ATS
    Note: Scoring high doesn't guarantee ATS success. New York and Atlanta rank second and third in scoring (trailing only Indiana), yet they are the two worst teams against the spread.

Overall Standings

  - Minnesota: 31-9
  - Golden State: 29-11
  - Las Vegas: 27-13
  - Atlanta: 26-14
  - Indiana: 26-14
  - New York: 24-16
  - Washington: 24-16
  - Dallas: 24-16

  - Portland: 16-24
  - Los Angeles: 15-25
  - Chicago: 15-25
  - Phoenix: 14-26
  - Toronto: 11-29
  - Connecticut: 10-30
  - Seattle: 8-32

Key Storylines

  - FIBA World Cup: A total of 51 WNBA players are participating in the tournament in Berlin. The Liberty are sending the most players of any team with seven. It remains to be seen what effect the tournament will have on the rest of the season and the playoffs.

  - MVP And Rookie Of The Year Races: A'ja Wilson of Las Vegas is an overwhelming favorite to win the MVP Award. One of the best WNBA players of all-time Wilson is averaging 26 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Olivia Miles won't catch Wilson in the MVP race but should have no trouble securing Rookie Of The Year honors. 

  - Angel Reese Record Watch: Reese continues to dominate the boards. After breaking the single-game rebound record last week with 26, she recently recorded her 29th double-double of the season against Minnesota, breaking Alyssa Thomas’ 2023 single-season mark.

  - In other news, former NBA player Enes Kanter Freedom says he now identifies as a woman and entered himself in the 2027 WNBA Draft to highlight the league’s eligibility rules on transgender athletes. He was later removed from a Chicago Sky–Indiana Fever game after a verbal clash with Sky guard Natasha Cloud. The Sky then banned him indefinitely from home games, citing him as a potential threat.

Free Futures Pick: Minnesota will NOT win the WNBA Championship (-138)
The Lynx are +125 to win the title and -138 to not win the title. That's like getting the field against the Lynx at -138. The Lynx have been the best team but they are not unbeatable. Regular season success doesn't always translate to playoff success either. Winning the title is all about peaking at the right time. Plus, the World Cup may hurt Minnesota's momentum. You've got teams like Indiana that can outscore the Lynx and Golden State that can play better defense. Then you've got the defending champion Aces who have a big advantage in playoff experience. Atlanta and NY are capable of getting hot at the right time, which is also the case for Dallas and Washington. 7 capable teams versus 1 at -138. We're taking it.