by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Nov 05, 2021
Game time: 11:30 a.m. ET
Venue: Globe Life Park, Arlington, TX
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Air Force -2.5
BetMGM: Air Force -3
Caesars: Air Force -2.5
Season record
Army: 4-3
Air Force: 6-2 (3-2 Mountain West)
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Army - Air Force preview and analysis
Last week
Army: Off (lost 70-56 vs. Wake Forest on Oct. 23)
Air Force: Off (lost 20-14 vs. San Diego State on Oct. 23)
The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy is up for grabs on Saturday when the Air Force Falcons and Army Black Knights meet for an early-day matchup on Saturday in Arlington.
It’s a matchup of two teams that are going in completely opposite directions, but also the common denominator of ‘what if.’
Air Force comes in having lost for the first time in five games, losing 20-14 to the San Diego State Aztecs at home and thwarting any potential chance at playing for a Mountain West championship.
As expected, this matchup was a defensive slugfest with the altitude playing a major factor. The Falcons outgained San Diego State 259-229, but Air Force also had two turnovers and had their four-game winning streak end. Haaziq Daniels and Warren Bryan combined for 67 yards and a touchdown pass, while Air Force’s running game was held to 192 yards. That kind of effort against the fifth-ranked defense in the country is nothing to be ashamed of.
One unit that has to feel some sense of shame is the Army defense after giving up 70 points to the ninth-ranked Wake Forest Demon Deacons a couple of weeks ago. Ever since their 4-0 start, the Black Knights have taken a hit on both sides of the ball. The Army defense gave up 638 total yards and despite 595 total yards on offense, Army was essentially gifted a rebound effort after averaging 15 points the previous two games. Jabari Laws only passed 11 times, but had 140 yards on nine receptions and three touchdowns. The Army ground attack had 416 total yards and five touchdowns.
The only problem was the defense couldn’t stop Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman, who threw for 458 yards and five touchdowns.
Army was off to a promising 4-0 start before losing its past three, and now the Knights’ bowl hopes could go up in smoke with a loss to the high-powered Air Force rushing attack that leads the nation with 318 rushing yards per game.
Prediction
I don’t want to put the cart before the horse and believe that Army fixed its offense after that explosion on the ground against Wake Forest. That being said, Air Force’s knowledge of the option attack, as well as having a stingy defense, is going to bring Army back down to Earth. The passing attack will be limited in this game, but it should be a fun environment at the Texas Rangers’ ballpark. Comfortable win for Air Force. Air Force by 17
Betting trends
Army is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Army is 2-5 ATS following two weeks of rest over the past three seasons.
Air Force is 1-5 ATS in its last six following two or more unders.
Air Force is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 following a home game.
Statistical leaders
Army:
Passing: Jabari Laws -- 227 yards, 3 TD
Rushing: Christian Anderson -- 427 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Isaiah Alston -- 216 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Andre Carter II -- 8.5 sacks
Air Force:
Passing: Haaziq Daniels -- 562 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Brad Roberts -- 845 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Brandon Lewis -- 226 yards
Defense: Vince Sanford -- 6.5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
