Arkansas State Red Wolves vs South Alabama Jaguars Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/30/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 5:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 30, 2021
Venue:  Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL
Where to Watch:  ESPN+

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Arkansas State +8.5, South Alabama -8.5; Over/Under:  66.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Arkansas State +9, South Alabama -9; Over/Under:  65.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Arkansas State +9, South Alabama -9; Over/Under:  66.5 points
 

Season Record

Arkansas State Red Wolves:  1-6 (5th place, Sun Belt Group B)
South Alabama Jaguars:  4-3 (4th place, Sun Belt Group B)
 
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Arkansas State Red Wolves vs South Alabama Jaguars Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
Arkansas State Red Wolves:  lost at home on Oct. 21 against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 28-27.
South Alabama Jaguars:  lost on the road on Oct. 23 against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 41-31.
 
 
 

Arkansas State Red Wolves Analysis

Arkansas State is coming into this game with a 1-6 record overall and they are 0-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 4th conference matchup of the season and they are already in a big hole with a 0-3 record in their conference games this season. Their 3 losses came against the Georgia Southern Eagles, the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, and against ULL in their last game. That was a very close game as they lost by 1 point and both teams went scoreless in the first quarter and the fourth quarter of that game. Layne Hatcher played well in that game as he completed 16/31 passes for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. Lincoln Pare led the team in rushing with 52 yards on 11 carries but their running game was not that strong in that one. Tevailance Hunt led the receivers with 83 yards and 1 touchdown on 3 carries while Jeff Foreman had 64 yards on 2 receptions. Corey Rucker and Emmanual Stevenson both caught 1 touchdown pass each in that one. Elery Alexander led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones while Taylon Doss was right behind with 8 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. JoJo Ozougwu had the only sack in that game for the defense while no one was able to come up with an interception. They have scored 207 points in their 7 games this season averaging 29.6 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 308 points against them allowing 44 PPG. Their offense is averaging 434.6 YPG while their defense is allowing 578.6 YPG.
 
 

South Alabama Jaguars Analysis

South Alabama is coming into this game with a 4-3 record overall and they are 3-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 5th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are already in a big hole with a 1-3 record in their conference games this season. Their 1 win came against the Georgia Southern Eagles while their 3 losses came against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, the Texas State Bobcats, and against ULM in their last game. They lost that game in a close battle that they were trailing in slightly for most of the game. Jake Bentley played well in that game but he also struggled at times as he completed 30/41 passes for 320 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Terrion Avery led the team in rushing with 87 yards on 14 carries but he was basically their entire running game in that one. Jalen Tolbert had a very nice day as he led the receivers with 155 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 receptions. Keith Gallmon led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones. No one on the defense recorded a sack or came away with an interception in that game. They have scored 202 points in their 7 games this season averaging 28.9 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 155 points against them allowing 22.1 PPG. Their offense is averaging 392.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 334.9 YPG.
 

 

Arkansas State vs South Alabama Prediction

South Alabama is coming into this game as an 8.5 point favorite with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Both of these teams have been bad in their conference games but Arkansas State has yet to find a win in their conference games. Their defense is awful and they allow way too many yards and points that they do not really give themselves a chance to stay in games. South Alabama has a good offense that averages almost 30 points per game and they will find ways to score in this game while their defense is also good allowing less than 24 points per game. They will be able to stop Arkansas State in this game while still scoring points against them. The best bet to place in this game is on South Alabama to cover the spread in this game.
 
Arkansas State South Alabama Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 30, 2021 (5:00 pm ET start time) is South Alabama 38 Arkansas State 20.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

 
Arkansas State Red Wolves: 25-19 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 143-131 ATS in all games. 28-23 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63. 76-68 ATS as an underdog. 51-48 ATS as a road underdog. 84-75 ATS against conference opponents.
South Alabama Jaguars: 6-11 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 52-65 ATS in all games. 17-25 ATS as a favorite. 13-17 ATS as a home favorite. 26-32 ATS in home games. 30-43 ATS against conference opponents.
 

Key Injuries

 
Arkansas State Red Wolves:  S. Johnson (CB) Ques Sat - Head injury. J. Blackman (QB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder injury.
South Alabama Jaguars:  S. Jennings (LB) Ques Sat - Ankle injury. J. McCullouch (OL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. C. Thompson (S) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury.
 
 

Notable Quotes

 
“Going to Mobile, we definitely have our hands full and it’s going to be a great challenge facing a really good football team. Schematically, they’re going to challenge us to stop the run, and really everyone has and why wouldn’t you? If you really look at the biggest improvement we need to make in our football program, in the building of it, it’s in the lines of scrimmage, that’s no secret. That’s evident. And it’s in the offensive line and the defensive line. It’s in competitive depth. It’s in depth overall.” - Butch Jones on preparing his team for the next game against South Alabama.
 
 
“I already know it’s going to be a fun game, just because of how they played us last year and the type of guys they have on their defense. They like to play man; they’re real chippy, they’re real competitive. So it’s an exciting game to get ready for. You get to run a lot and go to catch those deep passes.” - Jalen Wayne on what he is expecting from Arkansas State in this game.
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
Arkansas State Red Wolves
WR Foreman, Jeff 
WR Rucker, Corey 
WR Hunt, Te'Vailance 
TE Tyler, Reed 
QB Hatcher, Layne 
RB Lamar, Alan 
 
South Alabama Jaguars
WR Tolbert, Jalen 
WR Jalen Wayne
WR Caullin Lacy
TE Crum, Brandon 
TE Sefcik, Lincoln 
QB Bentley, Jake 
RB Walker, Kareem 
 

Statistical Leaders

 
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Passing: J. Blackman (1334)
Rushing: L. Pare (198)
Receiving: C. Rucker (550)
Touchdowns: C. Rucker (8)
 
South Alabama Jaguars
Passing: J. Bentley (1825)
Rushing: T. Avery (296)
Receiving: J. Tolbert (873)
Touchdowns: K. Walker (4)
 
Coaches:
Arkansas State Red Wolves: Butch Jones (1st season)
South Alabama Jaguars: Kane Wommack (1st season)


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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