by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Dec 20, 2023
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, December 23, 2023
Venue: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: AR State -2.5, NIU +2.5; Over/Under: 53.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: AR State -2.5, NIU +2.5; Over/Under: 53.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: AR State -2.5, NIU +2.5; Over/Under: 53.5 points
Season Record
Arkansas State Red Wolves: 6-6 (4-4) (4th place, SBC West)
Northern Illinois Huskies: 6-6 (5-3) (2nd place, MAC West)
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Recent Form
Arkansas State Red Wolves: lost their last game on the road against the Marshall Thundering Herd 35-21.
Northern Illinois Huskies: won their last game on the road against the Kent State Golden Flashes 37-27.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Northern Illinois Huskies Preview and Analysis
Arkansas State is entering this game with a 6-6 record overall and they have a 4-4 record in their conference games too. They are 4-2 in their home games, 2-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Marshall 35-21. Jaylen Raynor was the starting QB and he completed 19/38 passes for 263 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Ja'Quez Cross led the team in rushing yards with 27 and 1 TD. Corey Rucker led the receivers with 87 receiving yards on 5 receptions. James Reed lll led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Keyron Crawford and Nate Martey each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Northern Illinois is entering this game with a 6-6 record overall and they have a 5-3 record in their conference games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Kent State 37-27. Rocky Lombardi was the starting QB and he completed 9/18 passes for 183 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Gavin Williams led the team in rushing yards with 103. Kyle Thomas led the receivers with 45 receiving yards on 1 reception. Raishein Thomas led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois Prediction
The current betting odds have Arkansas State listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this Camellia Bowl game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Arkansas State didn't look great in a lot of their games this season but they managed to finish with a 6-6 record overall. They haven't looked great in their games lately either as they lost 2 of their final 3 games, including their last game of the regular season. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois hasn't looked any better this season with their 6-6 record overall and they needed to win their final game of the season just to get here. Northern Illinois was also a lot better against conference opponents with their 5-3 record in the MAC and they were only 1-3 in their non-conference games which this will be. Arkansas State was a little better in their non-conference games with their 2-2 record in those and they are also motivated to win this game as they are treating it like the 1st game of the next season. NIU hasn't had a lot of success in bowl games either with their last win coming against Arkansas State back in 2012. The best way to place a bet here is on Arkansas State to cover the spread in this game.
Arkansas State Northern Illinois Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, December 23, 2023 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Arkansas State 31 Northern Illinois 21.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Arkansas State Red Wolves: 8-4 ATS in non-conference games. 9-4 ATS off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite. 5-1 UNDER against MAC opponents. 9-5 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs. 10-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
Northern Illinois Huskies: 4-9 ATS in a bowl game. 5-12 ATS as a neutral field underdog. 1-7 ATS off a road win. 12-6 UNDER as a neutral field underdog. 23-15 UNDER after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games.
Key Injuries
Arkansas State Red Wolves: Z. Wallace (RB) Prob Sat - Tailbone. E. Stevenson (TE) out for season - Leg. J. Shrout (QB) Out indefinitely - Ankle.
Northern Illinois Huskies: K. Rutkiewicz (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. D. Patterson (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“Very, very unfortunate circumstance with Jacob Bayer this morning. Our thoughts and prayers are with him and his family. He’s going to be fine.” - Butch Jones after his team’s loss against Marshall in their last game of the college football regular season.
"We are certainly excited about the opportunity to play in the Camellia Bowl against a quality Sun Belt opponent in Arkansas State. We're looking forward to a very competitive football game and extended time with this team. Every bowl experience is unique and different; it's a great reward for the way you played throughout the season and an excellent way to send your seniors out the right way. We have the opportunity to finish the season with a championship." - Thomas Hammock on his team playing against Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl.
Starting Lineups
Arkansas State Red Wolves
WR Rucker, Corey
WR Foreman, Jeff
WR Jackson, Courtney
TE McCrumby, Miller
QB Raynor, Jaylen
RB Cross, Ja'Quez
Northern Illinois Huskies
WR Patterson, Davis
WR Rudolph, Trayvon
WR Barnes, Grayson
TE Carter, Chris
QB Lombardi, Rocky
RB Brown, Antario
FB Lampe, Brock
Statistical Leaders
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Passing: J. Raynor (2293)
Rushing: J. Cross (688)
Receiving: C. Jackson (658)
Touchdowns: C. Jackson (7)
Northern Illinois Huskies
Passing: R. Lombardi (2074)
Rushing: A. Brown (1162)
Receiving: T. Rudolph (499)
Touchdowns: A. Brown (10)
Coaches:
Arkansas State Red Wolves: Butch Jones (3rd season)
Northern Illinois Huskies: Thomas Hammock (5th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
