Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Georgia State Panthers Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/20/2021

by James Q

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Georgia State Panthers Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/20/2021

Game Time: 2:00 PM  ET, Saturday, November, 20th, 2021
Venue:  Center Parc Credit Union Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Where to Watch: ESPN 3

Opening NCAAF Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Spread: Georgia State -16.5; Over/Under: 65.5 points
Circa:  Spread: Georgia State -16.5; Over/Under:  66 points
Caesars:  Spread: Georgia State -16.5;  Over/Under:  65.5 points 

Season Record

Arkansas State: 1-5 conf, 2-8 overall (Sun Belt)
Georgia State: 4-2 conf, 5-5 overall (Sun Belt)

Arkansas State has been losing this season.  The point spread is big in this one… The Red Wolves are 16.5 point underdogs.  A quick look at their record and they have lost by more to several schools this season.  They lost by more to Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, South Alabama, Georgia Southern… Nowhere on this list do you see Oklahoma, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Notre Dame…. Arkansas State is a small underfunded football program in a small conference.  Sure, Georgia State is in that conference too but they are clearly having a better year and have a better squad for the Sun Belt.

Georgia State beat Coastal Carolina, LA-Monroe, Texas State.  And yes Georgia State has had some big bad losses… but surprisingly they covered the spread against Auburn and kept the loss to 34-24.  The spread in this game should be an easy bet for Georgia State… except they lost to Army 43-10 and UNC 59-17.  So let’s look at the numbers and then make a solid bet.

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Arkansas State vs Georgia State Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Arkansas State is 2-8 on the season, but have gone 5-5 ATS.  They have logged 3 Overs and 7 Unders.  They are 1-4 in road games (same record in home games).

Georgia State is 5-5 on the season, but have gone 7-3 ATS.  They have notched 6 Overs and 4 Unders.  They are 2-2 at home.

Offensive Analysis

Arkansas State is ranked 64th in the FBS on offense.  That is seriously surprising because of their losing record.  They have gained 401.5 ypg and scored 28 offensive touchdowns.  The great strength of Arkansas State is their passing offense that is ranked #12 in the nation.  They don’t have time for a field goal, they are much too busy airing it out.  321.7 yards per game have come from the passing offense.  They aren’t balanced and only go to the run to keep the defense relatively honest.

Georgia State has the 87th ranked offense in the FBS.  They have gained 371.2 yards per game and scored 34 touchdowns on the season.  Georgia State is ranked 118th in the FBS in passing offense.  They have gained 160.4 yards per game through the air and scored 14 TDs passing.  The Panthers are a running team with 210 rushing yards per game.  They will take the game right ot the Red Wolves defensive line.

Defensive Analysis

A….. HA!  Arkansas State is dead last in the FBS on defense.  That’s right they are ranked 130th out of the 130 Div -1 teams in the FBS.  They have given up 530.4 yards per game and allowed a whopping 55 touchdowns!  They are just plain bad on D and can’t stop anybody.

Georgia State is ranked 98th in the FBS on defense.  They have allowed 426 yards per game and 38 touchdowns.  Normally that would be an untrustworthy defense to put your money on… but in this matchup it is practically the Steel Curtain. The Panthers have a 100 yard advantage per game and they have played a slightly harder schedule.

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Georgia State Panthers Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, November 20th is….   Georgia State 42 - Arkansas State 21
The bet is Georgia State and you’ll cover the points.  This is a college football game with a clear winner from the outset.  
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NCAAF Betting Trends

Arkansas State is 2-4 ATS against conference opponents this season.
Arkansas State is 2-4 ATS off a win against a conference rival the last 3 seasons.
Georgia State is 14-7 ATS against conference opponents the last 3 seasons.
Georgia State is 9-3 ATS as a favorite the last 3 seasons.

Starting Lineup

Ark ST:  QB Layne Hatcher, RB Alan Lamar, TE Reed Tyler, WR Jeff Foreman, WR Corey Rucker, WR Te’Vailance Hunt, LT Andre Harris JR, LG Ethan Miner, OC Jacob Still, RG Ivory Scott, RT Wyatt Luebke

Georgia State: QB Darren Grainger, RB Tucker Gregg, TE Roger Carter, WR Cornelius McCoy, WR Sam Pinkney, WR Terrance Dixon, LT Travis Glover, LG Shamarious Gilmore, OC Malik Sumter, RG Pat Bartlett, RT Jonathan Bass


Statistical Leaders

Ark State
Passing Yards: Layne Hatcher 1,873
Tackles: Elery Alexander 72
Interceptions: Samy Johnson 2

Georgia State
Passing Yards: Darren Grainger 1,220
Tackles: Jordan Veneziale 78
Interceptions: Antavious Lane 2


Arkansas State: Butch Davis.  Coach Davis is in year one as the Head Coach of the Red Wolves... He has been at bigger schools.  Building a program in the Sun Belt may be the biggest challenge.

Georgia State:  Shawn Elliot.  Coach Elliot has been the head coach of the Panthers since 2017 and has a 27-30 record. 

James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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