Arkansas Razorbacks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/08/2022

by Rod Pearson

Monday, Oct 03, 2022
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 8, 2022
Venue:  Davis Wade Stadium, Mississippi State, MS
Where to Watch:  SEC Network

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Arkansas +7, Mississippi State -7; Over/Under:  61.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Arkansas +7.5, Mississippi State -7.5; Over/Under:  62 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Arkansas +7, Mississippi State -7; Over/Under:  62.5 points
 

Season Record

Arkansas Razorbacks:  3-2 (1-2) (7th place, SEC West)
Mississippi State Bulldogs:  4-1 (1-1) (4th place, SEC West)
 
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Recent Form
Arkansas Razorbacks:  lost their last game at home against the Alabama Crimson Tide 49-26.
Mississippi State Bulldogs:  won their last game at home against the Texas A&M Aggies 42-24.

 

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview and Analysis

 
Arkansas is entering this game with a 3-2 record overall to start their college football season and they will be playing their 1st road game of the season here. This will also be their 4th conference game of the college football season this year as they are 1-2. They lost against the Alabama Crimson Tide in their last game at home 49-26. Bryce Young started that game at QB and he completed 7/13 passes for 173 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception before he left due to injury and was replaced by Jalen Milroe who completed 4/9 passes for 65 yards and 1 touchdown. Jahmyr Gibbs led the team in rushing with 206 yards and 2 TDs on 18 rushing attempts. Kobe Prentice led the team in receiving with 92 yards and 1 TD on 3 receptions. Kool-Aid McKinstry led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles. Jaylen Moody and Jaheim Oatis each led the defense in sacks with 1 while no one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
 
 
 
Mississippi State is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall to start their college football season and they will be playing their 4th home game of the season as they are 3-0 in their home games this year. This will also be the 3rd conference matchup on their conference schedule this season as they are 1-1. They won against the Texas A&M Aggies in their last game at home 42-24. Will Rogers started that game at QB and he completed 31/45 passes for 329 yards and 3 touchdowns. Dillon Johnson led the team in rushing with 68 yards and 1 TD on 14 carries. Rara Thomas led the team in receiving with 134 yards and 1 TD on 5 receptions. Jett Johnson led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles. J.P. Purvis led the defense in sacks with 1.5 while Emmanuel Forbes came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that one.

 

Arkansas vs Mississippi State Prediction

The current betting odds have Mississippi State listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Mississippi State is at home for this game and they just dismantled Texas A&M in their last game at home too. Mississippi State is shaping up to be a very good team this year and they are going to be getting another tough test in Arkansas here. Arkansas was a big overachiever last year as they had a very good season but they have come back down to Earth with a mediocre 3-2 start. They just lost their last game at home to Alabama who is one of the best teams in the country, but Alabama also played more than half of that game with their backup QB after Bryce Young left with an injury and Arkansas still couldn't keep the game close enough to even cover the 17 point spread. Arkansas is now playing their 1st road game of the year and getting their 1st real road test in a conference game against a very good team. Arkansas put a lot into that game to beat Alabama and they could be due for a let down here too. The best way to place a bet here is on Mississippi State to cover the spread in this game.
 
Arkansas Mississippi State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 8, 2022 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Mississippi State 42 Arkansas 28.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

 
Arkansas Razorbacks: 16-10 ATS in all games. 29-17 ATS off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival. 27-15 UNDER after allowing 42 points or more last game.
Mississippi State Bulldogs: 7-14 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. 113-73 UNDER against conference opponents. 59-34 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs. 
 

Key Injuries

 
Arkansas Razorbacks:  I. Sategna (WR) day-to-day - Ankle. K. Renfro (QB) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Catalon (DB) out for season - Shoulder.
Mississippi State Bulldogs:  None.
 

Notable Quotes

 
"Right now, we're one-dimensional. We've got to be able to throw and catch and protect. We can't just turn around and hand the ball off and beat really good teams." - Sam Pittman after his team’s loss against Alabama in their last game.
 
 
"The biggest thing was we just played together. Early on we played too close to the vest and as we opened up, we had more success. They had a tough time teeing off on one thing. A&M is tough.” - Mike Leach after his team’s win against Texas A&M in their last game.
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
Arkansas Razorbacks
WR Thompson, Warren
WR Landers, Matt
WR Haselwood, Jadon 
TE Knox, Trey
QB Jefferson, KJ
RB Sanders, Raheim 
 
Mississippi State Bulldogs
WR Thomas, Rara
WR Ducking, Caleb
WR Harvey, Rufus
WR Williams, Austin 
QB Rogers, Will 
RB Marks, Jo'quavious 
 

Statistical Leaders

 
Arkansas Razorbacks
Passing: K. Jefferson (1096)
Rushing: R. Sanders (609)
Receiving: M. Landers (261)
Touchdowns: R. Sanders (5)
 
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Passing: W. Rogers (1715)
Rushing: D. Johnson (302)
Receiving: R. Thomas (359)
Touchdowns: C. Ducking (6)
 
Coaches:
Arkansas Razorbacks: Sam Pittman (3rd season)
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Mike Leach (3rd season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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