by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Nov 22, 2021
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO
Where to watch: ESPNEWS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Arkansas -8
BetMGM: Arkansas -9.5
Caesars: NL
Season record
No. 16 Arkansas: 3-0
Kansas State: 2-0
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Arkansas - Kansas State preview and analysis
Recent form
Arkansas: won 93-80 vs. Northern Iowa on Wednesday
Kansas State: won 79-64 vs. Omaha on Wednesday
Off to a 3-0 start all at home, the 16th-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks will hit the road for the neutral site Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City to face the Kansas State Wildcats on Monday.
The Razorbacks and Wildcats will be joined by the Cincinnati Bearcats and Illinois Fighting Illini in the tournament, with the winners and losers facing each other on Tuesday.
Arkansas is coming off a 93-80 victory against the Northern Iowa Panthers last Wednesday that turned out to be a tough test for Eric Musselman’s group. The Hogs took a two-point lead into halftime before eventually pulling away, outscoring UNI 53-42 in the frame.
Chris Lykes was a savior off the bench for Arkansas, scoring 26 points off the bench on 8 of 16 shooting. He hit a game-tying 3-pointer with 4:25 left that sparked a 21-5 run over the final four minutes to get the victory.
All in all, six Razorbacks scored in double figures. JD Notae had 17 points, nine assists and eight rebounds, while Au’Diese Toney had 13 points and six rebounds.
What kept UNI in that game was the ability to hit the 3-pointer. Coming into that game, Arkansas was 328th in the nation in 3-point defense. The Panthers went on to make 17 of 37; 11 of them came from Trae Berhow (7) and AJ Green (4).
"They hadn't shot the ball very well before they met our defense," Musselman said. "I can promise you guys that defending the 3 was part of the game plan coming in. We seem to have solved most of the issues that have come up through a small three-game sample size. We have not solved defending the 3-point line."
Arkansas is a capable team that can outscore many an opponent, as evidence by that win over UNI. But they’ll be taking on a Kansas State team that has been hitting 43 percent of its threes to begin the season.
K-State’s body of work doesn’t have the eye-popping win like Northern Iowa does, but the Wildcats are off to a 2-0 start with wins over Florida A&M and Omaha. No doubt this will be Kansas State’s first big test of the season against a very good team.
Ismael Massoud and Nijel Pack had 15 points each to pace Kansas State in their win over the Mavericks. Mark Smith added 11 points and eight rebounds, and K-State shot 52.8 percent from the floor while only making 9 of 19 3-point attempts for efficient offensive output.
The Wildcats are 8-3 all-time in the series, but this is the first matchup since 1991 when the Razorbacks completed a home-and-home sweep of K-State; a 70-59 victory.
Prediction
Kansas State is going to have the homecourt advantage, but shooting tends to travel and Arkansas will be ready. After these two games, the Razorbacks get another four straight at home before a showdown against Oklahoma on Dec. 11. Should the Hogs take care of business, things will look good for what should be one of the presumptive SEC favorites. Arkansas by 15
Betting trends
Arkansas is 1-4 ATS in its last five.
Arkansas is 6-1 ATS off three straight home wins in the past three seasons.
Kansas State is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 following consecutive non-conference games.
Projected starting lineup
Kansas State:
PG: Nijel Pack
SG: Mark Smith
SF: Mike McGuirl
PF: Ismael Massoud
C: Kaosi Ezeagu
SF: Mike McGuirl
PF: Ismael Massoud
C: Kaosi Ezeagu
Arkansas:
PG: J.D. Notae
SG: Davonte Davis
SF: Au’Diese Toney
PF: Jaylin Williams
C: Connor Vanover
SF: Au’Diese Toney
PF: Jaylin Williams
C: Connor Vanover
Statistical leaders
Kansas State:
Points: Nijel Pack -- 16.5
Rebounds: Mark Smith -- 7.0
Assists: Markquis Nowell -- 4.5
Arkansas:
Points: J.D. Notae -- 21.7
Rebounds: Au’Diese Toney -- 7.0
Assists: Jaylin Williams -- 5.7
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
