by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Mar 23, 2022
NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16, West Region
Time: 7:09 p.m. ET
Time: 7:09 p.m. ET
Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Gonzaga -9.5
BetMGM: Gonzaga -9.5
Caesars: Gonzaga -9.5
Season record
No. 4 Arkansas: 27-8
No. 1 Gonzaga: 28-3
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Arkansas - Gonzaga preview and analysis
I do not blame anyone for having any sort of doubt on the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Could they very well go into making a deep run through the NCAA Tournament? It’s very much possible. This is a team that went to the national championship game a year ago and has just as much, if not more, talent than the team a year ago.
But are they good right now? That’s the biggest question when looking at Gonzaga before their Sweet 16 matchup against the Arkansas Razorbacks on Thursday. There’s no doubt that Gonzaga has looked great offensively the past few weeks, but things have gotten shaky despite their 82-78 win over Memphis and the 21-point win over Georgia State in the first round.
I’m not sure if it’s a matter of coasting to the finish line and just accepting the understanding that the Zags will turn it on at the right time. Mark Few’s groups tend to do that when needed. But I’d be remised if I didn’t have some sort of reservations on the No. 1 seed in the West Region after escaping against Memphis the other night.
Of course, getting 25 points and 14 rebounds from Drew Timme and 23 points from Andrew Nembhard help provide a prolific offense, but the fact Memphis kept hanging around because of their effort in the first half seems a little concerning. It required Gonzaga outscoring Memphis 51-37 in the second half to survive and advance, but if it weren’t for them having so much trouble against Georgia State in the first round, things wouldn’t appear this dire.
"What I said was, no matter what happens, no matter what the score is, win or lose, this could very well be the last 20 minutes of basketball you ever play, and go out with no regrets," Timme recalled of what he said to his team at halftime.
The veteran leader of the Zags took over when his group needed him most. Chet Holmgren finishing with nine points wasn’t going to cut it, and won’t when the Zags face a gritty Arkansas group that has flown under the radar in the SEC to get to this point.
The good news for Gonzaga is Arkansas hasn’t appeared to be any better when getting to the Sweet 16. A four-point win over Vermont and just a 5-point escape against New Mexico State aren’t really trendsetting performances for a should-be good team, but they’re here and defensively should put on a strong performance against Gonzaga.
"Tonight's scheme was a little bit more complicated than we've had," he added. "I was worried about it today at the team meal even as late as 4 p.m. Did we try to squeeze too much in? When you demand a lot, it's amazing what people can retain."
Arkansas is going to go as far as JD Notae will take them. He had 18 points, but took 18 shots to get there along with six turnovers. But he made up for that with six turnovers before fouling out after 31 minutes. He needs to be on the floor and playing well to win, because Arkansas will not come close to winning by only shooting 27.5 percent from the floor and 3 of 16 from 3-point range.
Prediction
Gonzaga laying 9.5 is a large, risky number. I feel the only reason why Gonzaga is getting that large of a spread is because Arkansas hasn’t deserved for it to be closer. However, I’m going to be the brave one and say Arkansas covers in this one. They’ve covered their last four as underdogs and are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 when giving up fewer than 50 points in their last game. Gonzaga has not covered their last four NCAA Tournament games as a favorite, and I question if they’ll be up to the task against a team that should be much better than how it’s played. Gonzaga by 4
Betting trends
Arkansas is 10-8 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons.
Arkansas is 50-62 ATS in neutral-court games since 1997.
The over is 23-7 when Gonzaga has consecutive overs the past three seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Arkansas:
PG: J.D. Notae
SG: Stanley Umude
SF: Au'Diese Toney
PF: Trey Wade
C: Jaylin Williams
Gonzaga:
PG: Rasir Bolton
SG: Andrew Nembhard
SF: Julian Strawther
PF: Drew Timme
C: Chet Holmgren
SF: Julian Strawther
PF: Drew Timme
C: Chet Holmgren
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
