Game Time: 8:30 PM  ET, Saturday, March 26th, 2022

Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, California

Where to Watch:  TBS

 

DraftKings Sportsbook: Duke -4

Caesars:  Spread:  Duke -4

VegasInsider:  Spread:  Duke -4

FanDuel: Spread:  Duke -4

Arkansas: 24-7 on the season (SEC)

Duke: 26-5 on the season (ACC)

An NCAA Midwest Regional Semifinal.  March Madness has been exploding all around us.  #1 Seeds have been knocked out at a ¾ rate.  Blue Blood programs have seen new entries into their inner circle.  A team with the mascot of the Peacocks have gone far enough to merit a future 30 for 30 on ESPN.  The betting has been extraordinary.  Who had Kentucky losing when they did?... Who bet the spread just to find out they were betting the winner?   It has been wild ride and no one's bracket is still alive for a perfect run and that local radio station million dollar contest! The story in this matchup is of course the legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski who is retiring after a four decade run.  He holds a place in everyone’s heart (love him or hate Duke) as the greatest college basketball coach to ever do it.  Yes, Mike is better than John Wooden.  John Wooden never had to deal with a rapidly changing culture of four year players becoming one and done players… Mike also did not have Lou Alcindor (Kareem Abdul Jabbar) followed by Bill Walton to stack college championships like a handful of Pringles.  At Arkansas the coach is Eric Musselman… who has indeed bounced around.  Eric was at one point the NBA coach of the Golden State Warriors… it did not work, but not for a lack of personal coaching talent.  Eric is proving he has bushels of coaching talent that maybe the NBA should not have let go of.  

Arkansas beat Gonzaga to get here. This can not be stated loudly enough… Arkansas beat Gonzaga, who was a #1 seed, who was favored to make the Final Four if not the Final game… to be here.  Arkansas got 21 points by 6’2 guard JD Notae, who is their absolute star.  JD brings an average of 18.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg, and 3.6 apg.  JD Notae’s real skill of course is defense!  JD brings active hands to passing lanes and dribbling bigs that leads to an astounding 2.3 steals per game.  Big man 6’10 Forward Jaylin Williams can play with anyone at 10.8 ppg and 9.6 rpg (team leading).  Jaylin also brings 1.2 blocks per game to the fray. Arkansas is deep and athletic… and they are not new to the waters of the elite eight.

Duke beat Texas Tech to be here.  Texas Tech and the bracket that Duke was put in … was designed to get Mike Krzyzewski.  Coach K is a ratings bonanza in the second biggest TV show going (football is bigger), don;t for a minute think that Coach K wasn’t given an easier path to be here.  Yet also don’t think that his roster deserves to be!  Coach K has NBA bound wings… a veteran point guard… a true big man.  Duke Forward 6’10 Paolo Banchero is one of the NBA bound wings… his 22 points against Texas Tech is exactly what pro scouts are looking for him to do to justify his eventual top-3 pick in the NBA draft. 7’0 Center Mark Williams has a little something to say about the destiny of a game… he contributes 11 ppg, 7.1 rpg, and the all important 2.8 blocks per game.  Arkansas on the low block will have to expect to have a shot or two sent into row three.

Arkansas has won 8 of their last ten games including the tournaments.  They went 5-4-1 ATS during that stretch.  Beating New Mexico State and Gonzaga to be in the elite 8 has been HUGE… getting past Duke will be harder.  I believe Gonzaga could and would beat Duke… but for Arkansas the matchups aren’t as perfect.  For Arkansas who has to shut down Paolo Banchero… the assignment will be harder than shutting down Drew Timme.   

Duke has won 8 of their last ten games including tournament play. They went 4-6 ATS during that stretch.  Duke has given everyone watching a feeling of simply not being as good as the previous tournament Champion teams.  The thing you have to remember is Duke gets favored by BIG SPREADS. Vegas knows.  Vegas Knows the casual bettor will be betting on Duke and tend to lay big spreads… that way when it doesn’t come in Vegas scoops 70% of the action on the game… and 1-% in vig on the guys that went the other way.  It is a cash waterfall to give Duke Giant spreads!!  Still, will Duke win outright?... Who cares?... The point is the betting opportunity.

Monty Hale went 2-0 on Thursday hitting his NCAA Tournament 3rd Round Game of the Year and 3rd Round Total of the Year.. Monty is 5-0 100% this week. Monty is 60+% Overall in BOTH CBB and NBA this season. Monty is also 18-4 81% on his Show Me The Money Total Plays. Make sure to pick up MONTY'S NCAA TOURNAMENT UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR RIGHT NOW! Don't miss out! Get Monty Hale’s pick!!  It's available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. Also don’t miss Monday’s picks!!  All your NCAA basketball needs for the entire college basketball season!  All your needs in any sport for that matter!   

Arkansas is 28-8 on the season, but 21-14-1 ATS.  They have logged 21 Overs and 15 Unders.  They are 6-3 on neutral courts.

Duke is 31-6 on the season, but 19-16-2 ATS.  They have notched 21 Overs, 15 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 7-1 on neutral courts.

Arkansas is 40th in scoring with 77.3 ppg, 37th in rebounds with 35.3 per game, and 109th in AST/TO ratio with 1.1.  On defense they rank 150th while allowing 68.2 ppg.

Duke is 9th in scoring with 80.4 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 35.9 per game, and 2nd in AST/To ratio with 1.7.  On defense they rank 85th while allowing 66 ppg from opponents.

Our prediction for Saturday, March 26th is… Duke 80 - Arkansas 77

Duke will make it to the final four.  They have a better defensive ranking and they score more.  Plus Coach K making this year’s Final Four is the correct story.  Watch the point spread closely and win the bet easy.

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Arkansas is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

Arkansas is 14-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins.

Duke is 438-400 ATS in all games since 1997.

These two teams have simply not played each other in the last 25 years… if ever.

Duke: No injuries to report 

Arkansas: No injuries to report.

Arkansas: Stanley Umude, JD Notae, Trey Wade, Au’Diese Toney, Jaylin Williams

Duke: Wendell Moore JR, Jeremy Roach, Paolo Banchero, Mark Williams, AJ Griffin

Arkansas: Eric Musselman

Duke: Coach K… In what could be his final game ever.