by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Nov 19, 2021
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Alabama -21
BetMGM: Alabama -20.5
Caesars: Alabama -20.5
Season record
No. 21 Arkansas: 7-3 (3-3 SEC)
No. 2 Alabama: 9-1 (5-1 SEC)
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Arkansas - Alabama preview and analysis
Last week
Arkansas: won 16-13 (OT) at LSU
Alabama: won 59-3 vs. New Mexico State
The Alabama Crimson Tide are going to find out very quickly over the next couple of weeks where they stack in realms of the College Football Playoff ranking.
It’s all but assured that Alabama will be playing for the SEC Championship in a few weeks time against the Georgia Bulldogs unless the Tide fall off a cliff in the next two weeks.
Don’t hold your breath this week with Alabama entering as three-touchdown favorites against the Arkansas Razorbacks for Senior Day in Tuscaloosa. The Tide, since losing their only game of the season to the Texas A&M Aggies on Oct. 9, have allowed a grand total of 50 points over their next four wins while scoring at least 49 in three of those games.
Alabama is coming off a 59-3 win over the New Mexico State Aggies in a game in which ‘Bama was favored by 52. Bryce Young was stellar yet again, throwing for 270 yards and five touchdowns on 21 of 23 passing. New Mexico State actually led the game 3-0 with 5:35 left in the first quarter. Then it was a blitz.
Alabama scored seven straight touchdowns in the final 19 minutes of the first half with Young throwing all five scores in that stretch. Brian Robinson also ran for two scores, including a 63-yards scamper to make it 35-3 with 7:54 left in the half.
All in all, it was a decent tune-up for Nick Saban’s group. Now comes a team that Alabama has not lost to under Saban. Just last year, Alabama defeated Arkansas by 49 and had a 38-3 edge at halftime. The Tide are 14-0 under Saban against Arkansas and has outscored the Razorbacks 584-200 in that stretch.
The Hogs are coming off a 16-13 win over the LSU Tigers in Death Valley that put them back in the top 25. It was a struggle offensively for quarterback KJ Jefferson, but he totaled for 183 yards and the lone touchdown in the third quarter.
Jefferson isn’t the kind of quarterback that will get hype since Arkansas isn’t a top-tier team, but he’s still a touchdown machine with 22 combined touchdowns on almost 2,500 total yards. But it’s not the passing game that’s the highlight of the Arkansas offense; the running game is second in the SEC (sixth in the country) at 233.5 yards per game led by Dominique Johnson.
Arkansas is bowl eligible is Sam Pittman’s second year at Arkansas. The Hogs should be commended for going from 3-7 last year to a much better year this time around. That won’t matter this week.
Prediction
Arkansas has already been in this position before, on the road as an underdog to a top-5 team. The Hogs were ran out of the stadium by the Georgia Bulldogs 37-0 when Arkansas was pushing a top-10 ranking. With the Iron Bowl on tap, there’s no way Saban lets his group have a letdown against a team it should dominate. Alabama by 28
Betting trends
Arkansas is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 following a two-game stretch where they committed one turnover or less.
Alabama is 22-14 ATS as a favorite the past three seasons and 33-3 straight up.
Alabama is 37-20 ATS in its last 57 following two straight home wins.
Statistical leaders
Arkansas:
Passing: KJ Jefferson -- 1,990 yards, 17 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Trelon Smith -- 513 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Treylon Burks -- 796 yards, 8 TD
Alabama:
Passing: Bryce Young -- 3,025 yards, 33 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Brian Robinson Jr. -- 823 yards, 14 TD
Receiving: Jameson Williams -- 1,028 yards, 10 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
