Arizona Wildcats vs. USC Trojans Prediction & Game Preview - 3/1/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Tuesday, Mar 01, 2022
Time: 11 p.m. ET
Venue: Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA
Where to watch: ESPN

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Season record
No. 2 Arizona: 25-3 (15-2 Pac-12)
No. 16 USC: 25-4 (14-4 Pac-12)

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Arizona - USC preview and analysis


Arizona analysis


The one thing we learned with all top six teams in the country losing on Saturday is that it really doesn't matter if they lose or not. Because nobody fell that far from the top 25 rankings. Jason point, the Arizona Wildcats. Because they are the only team that can go on the road 2A average conference opponent, lose by 16 points, and still stay the number two team in the country.

Such things in life do not make sense, but I think it was probably for the best that it stayed this way. Arizona is actually one of the top teams in the country, even though we don't really see it or acknowledge it because the PAC 12 is such an up and down, roller-coaster type league, but the Wildcats remain a fun group and at 25- 3 they are still one of the top teams standing as a potential national championship contender.

Arizona led 37- 32 at halftime and looked to be in control. But Colorado outscored Arizona 47- 26 in the second half and completely took over the game. The other key to this whole thing was that Arizona did not get the depth that it usually does in a game. Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona's leading scorer, was held to just 12 points on three of 11 shooting. Azuolas Tubelis had a team-high 13 points but shot 3 of 9 to get there.

Overall, Arizona starters shot 10 of 37 from the floor while their bench was actually an astonishing 10 to 14, but the problem was those three only played 17, 19, and 18 minutes respectively. Not really sure what the coaching was going on with this matchup but clearly it screwed everything up.

I think Arizona was due for a loss period it's been a long time coming since they've last lost a game and they were running a period of dominance for a good chunk of time. So they were going to let one slide, doing it to Colorado late in the season is probably the way to do it. And again they didn't fall from the rankings which is just as important. So All in all, nothing to be alarmed about it when it comes to Arizona.

USC analysis


There was a moment earlier in the season where I thought the USC charges were in the midst of just an utter collapse. And I know it's not smart to think that way with being so early in the season, but I look at how USC was about a month ago and while I didn't really write them off at the time, the Trojans didn't look as formidable as they do right now.

Which is why this is going to be probably the game of the night in college basketball. We're talking about an Arizona team coming off a loss, a bad loss but not enough to knock them down the rankings, against a USC team that is surging right now with the best time and is looking like that team that was one of the best in college basketball from earlier in the season.

The Trojans won their 6th game in a row on Saturday in a thrilling 70- 69 victory over the pesky Oregon Ducks in Eugene. Drew Peterson hit the game-winning three-pointer with 11.5 seconds remaining to give USC that much-needed victory. Isaiah Mobley also had 17 points and nine rebounds in 28 minutes, and he was the only other player for USC to score in double figures. USC shot 44.1% from the floor and 10 of 17 from the free-throw line but still found a way to knock off Oregon.

It was an important game for USC after losing to Oregon earlier in the season, but it was also a reminder that USC is not going to go away when it comes to the PAC 12 conference. The Trojans are athletic, they're long, they can make threes, it's a dynamic team that has not many weaknesses unless exploited by a top tier team in the country.

USC is going to present a really tough matchup for Arizona and the fact that it is also at home is going to pay huge dividends for this type of matchup. I'll be anxious to see how the two top scores of Mathurin and Peterson exchanged buckets and try to lead their teams to a crucial victory.

Prediction


All that being said, I'm going to take Arizona in this one. It's just the way that they've been consistent all year long and that they haven't tasted defeat that much. I would be very interested to see how Arizona bounces back in a game like that after losing just a few days prior and how they will respond on the road for the second straight game. As much as I like USC and I'm happy that they have rebounded as well as they have, Arizona is still the class of that conference and they're going to show it in this game. Arizona by 6

Betting trends


Arizona is 14-10 ATS as a favorite this season.

Arizona is 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.

USC is 15-7 ATS as an underdog.

Projected starting lineup


Arizona:
PG: Kerr Kriisa
SG: Dalen Terry
SF: Bennedict Mathurin
PF: Azuolas Tubelis
C: Christian Koloko

USC:
PG: Ethan Anderson
SG: Boogie Ellis
SF:
Drew Peterson
PF:
Chevez Goodwin
C:
Isaiah Mobley

Statistical leaders


Arizona:
Points: Bennedict Mathurin -- 17.1
Rebounds: Christian Koloko -- 7.3
Assists: Kerr Kriisa -- 5.0

USC:
Points: Isaiah Mobley -- 14.6
Rebounds: Isaiah Mobley -- 8.4
Assists: Drew Peterson -- 3.3

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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