Arizona Wildcats vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/02/2026

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Friday, January 2, 2026

Venue:  Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Arizona -3, SMU +3; Over/Under:  51.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Arizona -3, SMU +3; Over/Under:  51.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Arizona -3, SMU +3; Over/Under:  51.5 points

Arizona Wildcats:  9-3 (6-3) (5th place, Big 12)

SMU Mustangs:  8-4 (6-2) (5th place, ACC)

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Arizona Wildcats:  won their last game on the road against the Arizona State Sun Devils 23-7.

SMU Mustangs:  lost their last game on the road against the California Golden Bears 38-35.

Arizona is entering this game with a 9-3 record overall and they have a 6-3 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 3-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Arizona State 23-7. Noah Fifita was the starting QB and he completed 28/45 passes for 286 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Ismail Mahdi led the team in rushing yards with 53. Kris Hutson led the receivers with 95 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Genesis Smith led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Michael Dansby, Dalton Johnson, Treydan Stukes each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

SMU is entering this game with an 8-4 record overall and they have a 6-2 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against California 38-35. Kevin Jennings was the starting QB and he completed 24/36 passes for 250 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Chris Johnson Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 128 and 1 TD. Matthew Hibner led the receivers with 87 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Ahmaad Moses led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Arizona listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Arizona has looked really good in their games this season with their 9-3 record overall and their 6-3 conference record which had them right near the top of the Big 12. They haven't played in any neutral site games this season so this will be their first, playing in the Holiday Bowl. Meanwhile, SMU has looked good in their games this season with their 8-4 record overall and their 6-2 conference record which had them right near the top of the ACC. They haven't played in any neutral site games this year either. SMU went to the CFP last season and they were looking to repeat that this year, but they fell short. They had a good year in the ACC and even had a chance to go to the ACC Championship and possibly even the CFP, but they blew their chance. They lost to California 38-35 in their final game of the regular season which kept them out of the ACC Championship, and now they aren't going to have much motivation here, considering where they could have been playing. Arizona had a solid team in the Big 12 all season and they were quietly flying under the radar all year. They ended the regular season winning 5 games in a row and have a ton of momentum from a 23-7 win over their rival Arizona State in their last game of the regular season. Arizona will now be looking to finish the season strong and get to 10 wins against an SMU team that fell apart in their final game. The best way to place a bet here is on Arizona to cover the spread in this game. 

Arizona SMU Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, January 2, 2026 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Arizona 42 SMU 20.

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Arizona Wildcats: 6-2 ATS in non-conference games. 11-4 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 7-2 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. 11-4 UNDER after playing their last game on the road. 6-3 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

SMU Mustangs: 1-5 ATS against Big 12 conference opponents. 4-10 ATS in non-conference games. 17-26 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points. 6-3 UNDER as an underdog. 9-3 UNDER in games played on a grass field.

Arizona Wildcats:  M. Groves-Killebrew (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Brown (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Savea (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Smith (DL) Out - Undisclosed. T. Powell (TE) Out - Leg.

SMU Mustangs:  I. Robertson (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Ferm (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Gentry (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Woods (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Spencer (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Jefferson (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Washington (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed.

“Obviously, it’s a busy time for us right now. Really excited about playing in this bowl game. We’ve got a few good weeks of really good work. I’m excited about how this team comes to work every day. It’s just a really fun team to be around, just the effort, the intensity they bring to the practice environment, how much they enjoy just being together, getting out for each other, it’s been awesome.” - Brent Brennan on his team playing in the Holiday Bowl.

"SMU is a special place in our family. We are so excited for the opportunity to continue the process of building our program on the national stage." - Rhett Lashlee on signing an extension with SMU.

WR Spivey, Tre

WR Hutson, Kris

WR Whatley, Javin

TE Olson, Sam

QB Fifita, Noah

RB Mahdi, Ismail

WR Brinson, Romello

WR Hudson, Jordan

WR Maryland, RJ

TE Hibner, Matthew

QB Jennings, Kevin

RB Harden, TJ

Passing: Noah Fifita (2,693)

Rushing: Ismail Mahdi (791)

Receiving: Kris Hutson (740)

Touchdowns: Kedrick Reescano (9)

Passing: Kevin Jennings (3,363)

Rushing: T.J. Harden (747)

Receiving: Jordan Hudson (749)

Touchdowns: T.J. Harden (8)

Coaches:

Arizona Wildcats: Brent Brennan (2nd season)

SMU Mustangs: Rhett Lashlee (4th season)