Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/26/2026

 

Game Time: 8:40 pm ET, Saturday, September 26, 2026

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +104, Padres -125; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +105, Padres -125; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +105, Padres -125; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Arizona Diamondbacks:  85-74 (3rd place, NL West)

San Diego Padres:  89-70 (2nd place, NL West)

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Arizona Diamondbacks:  6-4 last 10

San Diego Padres:  8-2 last 10

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with an 85-74 record overall and have a road record of 40-38. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .719 OPS. Brandon Pfaadt is their starting pitcher on Friday while Ryne Nelson is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 3-5 with a 4.81 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 2 SO on 0 hits through 1.1 IP against the New York Yankees.

The Padres are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with an 89-70 record overall and have a home record of 49-29. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 18th in the MLB with a .715 OPS. Casey Mize is their starting pitcher on Friday while Walker Buehler is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 9-6 with a 4.56 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 walks with 6 strikeouts on 3 hits through 6.2 innings pitched against the Miami Marlins.

The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks have looked good in their games this season with their 85-74 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They have been a good road team too with their 40-38 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 89-70 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 49-29 home record this season. The Padres have been rolling lately, now 8-2 in their last 10 games and coming off a series win over the Dodgers, but now they have clinched their spot in the playoffs and don't need to put a full effort into this last series of the regular season. The Diamondbacks do need this series though, still fighting for that last Wild Card spot, and they have been getting hot again as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Diamondbacks won't have their best starter in this one with Burnes getting scratched, but the bullpen hasn't been that bad lately and the offense has been putting up a ton of runs too. The Padres are going with Buehler in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 9-6 with a 4.56 ERA and he has been giving up a lot of runs all year. His team has been having more success with him lately, winning 3 of their last 4 games with him starting, but he did give up 3 earned runs in his last start and that has been a common theme for him. Look for the Diamondbacks to take advantage of this pitching matchup as they give one final push to make the playoffs. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game. 

Diamondbacks Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026 (8:40 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 6 Padres 3.

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Arizona Diamondbacks: 85-74 (+13.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 40-38 (+9.3 units) on the moneyline in road games. 31-18 (+14.7 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 16-9 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).

San Diego Padres: 27-32 (-12.5 units) on the moneyline vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start. 15-22 (-5.5 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better. 31-36 (-2.2 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 22-15 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  T. Locklear (1B) Sixty Day IL - Thumb. R. Thompson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Saalfrank (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

San Diego Padres:  L. Rengifo (LF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. G. Sheets (1B) Ten Day IL - Foot. J. Estrada (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. M. Andujar (DH) Ten Day IL - Wrist. J. Adam (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. L. Giolito (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Much better. I think they're in a good place. They're [letting the ball travel] when they need to, having an all-field approach, targeting a certain pitch early in counts, squaring it up, not missing it.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s win against the Rockies in their game on Thursday. 

"It's a very satisfying season because we've had to fight through some tough times, and the tough times make you stronger. These guys are a very strong team right now. When you mix talent with high-character people, you can accomplish a lot." - Craig Stammen after his team’s win against the LA Dodgers in their game on Thursday.

Lars Nootbaar (L) LF

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Gabriel Moreno (R) DH

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Pavin Smith (L) 1B

Nolan Arenado (R) 3B

Corbin Carroll (L) RF

James McCann (R) C

Tim Tawa (R) CF

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Dustin Harris (L) LF

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Ty France (R) 1B

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B

Samad Taylor (R) DH

Ethan Salas (L) C

Batting Average:  Gabriel Moreno (.308)

Hits:  Gabriel Moreno (144)

Home Runs:  Nolan Arenado (29)

RBI:  Nolan Arenado (83)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (21)

Wins:  Eduardo Rodriguez (16)

Saves:  Paul Sewald (24)

ERA:  Justin Martinez (0.00)

Batting Average:  Gage Workman (.333)

Hits:  Fernando Tatis (179)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (29)

RBI:  Manny Machado (87)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (38)

Wins:  Michael King (12)

Saves:  Mason Miller (38)

ERA:  Mason Miller (1.30)

Managers:

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (10th season)

San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)