Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/25/2026

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Friday, September 25, 2026

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +117, Padres -142; Over/Under:  7 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +120, Padres -140; Over/Under:  7 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +120, Padres -145; Over/Under:  7 runs

Arizona Diamondbacks:  85-74 (3rd place, NL West)

San Diego Padres:  88-70 (2nd place, NL West)

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Arizona Diamondbacks:  6-4 last 10

San Diego Padres:  8-2 last 10

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with an 85-74 record overall and have a road record of 40-38. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Padres on Friday. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .718 OPS. Eduardo Rodríguez was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Brandon Pfaadt is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-3 with a 3.72 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 3 SO on 4 hits through 4.1 IP against the New York Yankees.

The Padres completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 3-0. They enter this game with an 88-70 record overall and have a home record of 49-29. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Los Angeles Dodgers still to be played on Thursday. The Padres lost the 1st game of that series on Tuesday and won the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 18th in the MLB with a .716 OPS. Nick Pivetta is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Casey Mize is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 6-9 with a 3.96 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 earned runs, 1 homer, and 5 walks with 2 strikeouts on 5 hits through 3 innings pitched against the Miami Marlins.

The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks have looked good in their games this season with their 85-74 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They have been a good road team too with their 40-38 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 88-70 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 49-29 home record this season. The Padres have been rolling lately, now 8-2 in their last 10 games, but the Diamondbacks have also been getting hot. The Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they are going to be desperate in this series, clinging for life right outside the last Wild Card spot. This is their last chance to make the playoffs in this series so they are going to bring their best effort and they are going to have the better pitching matchup too. The Diamondbacks are going with Pfaadt in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 7-3 with a 3.72 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He is coming off another great start giving up 1 earned run which has been a common theme for him and the team has been having success with him lately, winning 2 of their last 3 games with him starting. The Padres are going with Mize in this one and he has looked good this season too. He is 6-9 with a 3.96 ERA, but he looked a lot better when he was on the Tigers and has had a lot of trouble since getting traded to the Padres. His team has been having success lately, winning 5 games in a row now with him starting, but that hasn't been a common theme for him since he joined the team and he is coming off another bad start in which he gave up 5 earned runs. Look for the Diamondbacks to take advantage of this pitching matchup in one last desperate attempt to save their season in this series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game. 

Diamondbacks Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, September 25, 2026 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 4 Padres 3.

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Arizona Diamondbacks: 84-74 (+12.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 39-38 (+8.3 units) on the moneyline in road games. 30-18 (+13.7 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 16-9 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).

San Diego Padres: 27-29 (-4.3 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season. 14-22 (-7 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better. 30-36 (-3.8 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 34-22 UNDER vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  T. Locklear (1B) Sixty Day IL - Thumb. R. Thompson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Saalfrank (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

San Diego Padres:  L. Rengifo (LF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. G. Sheets (1B) Ten Day IL - Foot. J. Estrada (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. M. Andujar (DH) Ten Day IL - Wrist. J. Adam (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. L. Giolito (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

"Merrill was real effective. It was hard to take him out of a game in the sixth inning, but at this point in time, you can't blink. We got a very strong bullpen. He did his job and handed it right over to the backend guys, and they executed." - Torey Lovullo after his team’s win against the Rockies in their game on Wednesday. 

“We needed it. We hadn’t scored in a while, and it kind of broke the ice.” - Craig Stammen after his team’s win against the LA Dodgers in their game on Wednesday. 

Lars Nootbaar (L) LF

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Gabriel Moreno (R) DH

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Pavin Smith (L) 1B

Nolan Arenado (R) 3B

Corbin Carroll (L) RF

James McCann (R) C

Tim Tawa (R) CF

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Dustin Harris (L) LF

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Ty France (R) 1B

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B

Samad Taylor (R) DH

Ethan Salas (L) C

Batting Average:  Gabriel Moreno (.309)

Hits:  Gabriel Moreno (144)

Home Runs:  Nolan Arenado (29)

RBI:  Nolan Arenado (83)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (21)

Wins:  Eduardo Rodriguez (15)

Saves:  Paul Sewald (24)

ERA:  Justin Martinez (0.00)

Batting Average:  Samad Taylor (.333)

Hits:  Fernando Tatis (177)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (28)

RBI:  Manny Machado (87)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (36)

Wins:  Michael King (12)

Saves:  Mason Miller (37)

ERA:  Mason Miller (1.19)

Managers:

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (10th season)

San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)