by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Aug 17, 2023
Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Friday, August 18, 2023
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: SDPA
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: D-Backs +150, Padres -180; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: D-Backs +150, Padres -180; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: D-Backs +150, Padres -180; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Season Record
Arizona Diamondbacks: 61-60 (3rd place, NL West)
San Diego Padres: 58-63 (4th place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Arizona Diamondbacks: 4-6 last 10
San Diego Padres: 3-7 last 10
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis
The Diamondbacks are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 61-60 record overall and have a road record of 31-29. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the Padres on Friday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Thursday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .745 OPS. Zac Gallen is their starting pitcher on Thursday while rookie pitcher Brandon Pfaadt is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 0-6 with a 6.91 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 8 Ks on 9 hits through 5.2 IP against the San Diego Padres.
The Padres are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their 3-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 58-63 record overall and have a home record of 32-29. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the Diamondbacks on Friday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Thursday. Their offense ranks 14th in the MLB with a .739 OPS. Rich Hill is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Seth Lugo is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 4-6 with a 4.16 ERA this season. His team lost their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 0 BB with 4 strikeouts on 6 hits through 5 innings played against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction
The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have been struggling a lot this season with their losing record but they still have a chance to get back in the playoff race and have been playing a lot better lately. They have a chance to beat up on the Diamondbacks at home here who led the NL West for most of the season but have completely fallen off lately with a record right around .500 and even their offense has taken a hit lately after the way they were producing in the 1st half of the season. The Diamondbacks haven't had good pitching this season either and they are going to have rookie Pfaadt on the mound who hasn't really been that great this year with the number of runs he has been giving up in his starts. It won't help being on the road against an improving Padres team who has been hitting better lately and also has Lugo on the mound who has been pretty lights out this season. Lugo doesn't give up many runs in his starts and with the way the Diamondbacks haven't been hitting well lately, the Padres can take advantage of their struggles in this home series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game.
Diamondbacks Padres Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, August 18, 2023 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Padres 5 Diamondbacks 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
Arizona Diamondbacks: 21-12 (+13 units) on the moneyline on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10. 18-19 (+6.1 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 or higher. 50-29 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10. BRANDON PFAADT is 8-1 UNDER in all games.
San Diego Padres: 58-63 (-27.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 30-29 (-13.8 units) on the moneyline in home games. 20-11 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5. 20-12 UNDER as a home favorite of -150 or more.
Key Injuries
Arizona Diamondbacks: L. Gurriel Jr. (LF) Ques Thurs - Hip. M. Melancon (RP) Late Aug - Shoulder. Z. Davies (SP) Late Aug - Back. E. Longoria (3B) Out indefinitely - Back. A. Adams (RP) out for season - Ankle. T. Henry (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. D. Jameson (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. C. Martin (SP) out for season - Shoulder.
San Diego Padres: J. Choi (1B) Out indefinitely - Ribs. D. Carlton (RP) Late Aug - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Mid Sept - Shoulder. T. Hill (RP) Out indefinitely - Finger. A. Jacob (SP) Mid Sept - Elbow. R. Knehr (SP) out for season - Elbow. A. Morejon (SP) Out indefinitely - Knee. D. Pomeranz (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm.
Notable Quotes
“This is a gut check. After losing the first day here, we came out and won two really tough ball games. We didn't shut down. There is a certain degree of not shutting down that creates an environment that we have been used to here.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s win against the Rockies in their game on Wednesday.
“I kid with him that he’s a witch and he rides his broom around the bases and that's pretty much what happened there. When he takes off, everybody just gets nervous. Very rarely are you going to see that.” - Bob Melvin on Fernando Tatis Jr after his team’s win against the Orioles in their game on Wednesday.
Starting Lineups
Arizona Diamondbacks
Ketel Marte (S) 2B
Kyle Lewis (R) DH
Tommy Pham (R) RF
Christian Walker (R) 1B
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) LF
Buddy Kennedy (R) 3B
Nick Ahmed (R) SS
Alek Thomas (L) CF
Jose Herrera (S) C
San Diego Padres
Ha-Seong Kim (R) 2B
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Juan Soto (L) LF
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B
Gary Sanchez (R) C
Ben Gamel (L) DH
Trent Grisham (L) CF
Statistical Leaders
Arizona Diamondbacks
Batting Average: Dominic Fletcher (.301)
Hits: Ketel Marte (122)
Home Runs: Christian Walker (28)
RBI: Christian Walker (82)
Stolen Bases: Corbin Carroll (37)
Wins: Zac Gallen (12)
Saves: Scott McGough (9)
ERA: Kevin Ginkel (2.02)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Luis Campusano (.316)
Hits: Xander Bogaerts (119)
Home Runs: Juan Soto (24)
RBI: Juan Soto (75)
Stolen Bases: Ha-Seong Kim (27)
Wins: Joe Musgrove (10)
Saves: Josh Hader (27)
ERA: Alek Jacob (0.00)
Managers:
Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (7th season)
San Diego Padres: Bob Melvin (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
