Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/10/2025

by Rod Pearson

Wednesday, Jul 09, 2025
Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Thursday, July 10, 2025
Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA 
Where to Watch:  MLBN


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks -126, Padres +104; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks -125, Padres +105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks -125, Padres +105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Season Record

Arizona Diamondbacks:  45-47 (4th place, NL West)
San Diego Padres:  49-42 (3rd place, NL West)

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Recent Form
Arizona Diamondbacks:  4-6 last 10
San Diego Padres:  5-5 last 10



Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis


The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-47 record overall and have a road record of 22-22. This is the series finale of a 4-game series with the Padres on Thursday with the 3rd game still to be played on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks won the series opener on Monday and lost the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .770 OPS. Brandon Pfaadt is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Eduardo Rodríguez is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 3-5 with a 5.78 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 8 ER, 3 HR, and 0 BB with 7 SO on 12 hits through 4.1 IP against the Kansas City Royals.

The Padres are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Texas Rangers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 49-42 record overall and have a home record of 28-16. This is the 4th game of a 4-game series with the Diamondbacks on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Padres lost the 1st game of this series on Monday and won the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .687 OPS. Dylan Cease is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Randy Vásquez is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 3-4 with a 3.79 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 3 walks with 1 strikeout on 3 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Texas Rangers.


Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction

The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 49-42 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They have also looked a lot better in their own ballpark this year with their 28-16 home record. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks haven't looked great in their games this season with their 45-47 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL West. They have been a decent road team though with their 22-22 road record this season. They haven't looked great lately though as they are only 4-6 in their last 10 games, and the Padres have the better pitching matchup to take advantage of in this one. Vasquez is on the mound for the Padres in this one and he has been a solid starter for them this year. He is 3-4 with a 3.79 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately or all season. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and the team has been having success with him on the mound as they have won 3 games in a row now with him starting. The Diamondbacks are going with Rodriguez in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 3-5 with a 5.78 ERA and has been giving up a lot of runs lately. He is coming off a terrible start in which he gave up 8 earned runs and his team has lost 2 games in a row now with him starting too. The Diamondbacks have the better offense, but the Padres were able to shut them down on Tuesday in a 1-0 win and they have looked a lot better at home this year with the better pitching staff too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game. 

Diamondbacks Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 10, 2025 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Padres 5 Diamondbacks 2.
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MLB Betting Trends


Arizona Diamondbacks: 227-206 (+9.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 114-101 (+25 units) on the moneyline in road games. 74-59 (+14.5 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 96-64 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5.

San Diego Padres: 118-90 (-9 units) on the moneyline in home games. 77-85 (-12.4 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 69-64 (-8.4 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 38-23 OVER at home against division opponents.

Key Injuries


Arizona Diamondbacks:  A. Thomas (CF) Day To Day - Knee. S. Miller (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. T. Henry (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Thompson (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Scapular Strain. P. Smith (1B) Ten Day IL - Oblique. I. Vargas (2B) Ten Day IL - Foot. G. Moreno (C) Ten Day IL - Hand. C. Montes De Oca (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Martinez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. K. Graveman (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Hip. C. Burnes (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Montgomery (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Walston (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

San Diego Padres:  R. Bergert (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. M. King (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.


Notable Quotes


“They’re tremendous plays made by great athletes, and it just goes to show you good defense can help you win games and win moments. If you add it all up, it was a difference in the game. I've never seen two in one game. Both were incredible plays.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s loss against the Padres in their game on Tuesday.


“Both those guys have, what, four years combined out there of experience, going out there and making those plays. They win on both sides of the ball. Jackson just saved a game tonight. He won us a game. Tati won us a game. Guys with that kind of athleticism and talent, they show up, and they beat the other team in a lot of different ways.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s win against the Diamondbacks in their game on Tuesday.


Starting Lineups


Arizona Diamondbacks
Corbin Carroll (L) RF
Ketel Marte (S) 2B
Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS
Josh Naylor (L) 1B
Eugenio Suárez (R) 3B
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) LF
Jake McCarthy (L) CF
Randal Grichuk (R) DH
Jose Herrera (S) C

San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Luis Arraez (L) 1B
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Gavin Sheets (L) LF
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Trenton Brooks (L) DH
Elias Díaz (R) C

Statistical Leaders


Arizona Diamondbacks
Batting Average:  James McCann (.333)
Hits:  Josh Naylor (93)
Home Runs:  Eugenio Suárez (28)
RBI:  Eugenio Suárez (74)
Stolen Bases:  Geraldo Perdomo (13)
Wins:  Brandon Pfaadt (8)
Saves:  Shelby Miller (10)
ERA:  Christian Montes De Oca (0.00)

San Diego Padres
Batting Average:  Bryce Johnson (.313)
Hits:  Manny Machado (101)
Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis (15)
RBI:  Manny Machado (53)
Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (19)
Wins:  Nick Pivetta (9)
Saves:  Robert Suarez (26)
ERA:  Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)

Managers:
Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (9th season)
San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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