Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Wednesday, July 9, 2025
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: MLBN Alt.
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Diamondbacks +120, Padres -140; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Diamondbacks +120, Padres -140; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Diamondbacks +120, Padres -140; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Season Record
Arizona Diamondbacks: 45-46 (4th place, NL West)
San Diego Padres: 48-42 (3rd place, NL West)
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Arizona Diamondbacks: 4-6 last 10
San Diego Padres: 4-6 last 10
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis
The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-46 record overall and have a road record of 22-21. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Padres on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks won the series opener on Monday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .774 OPS. Merrill Kelly is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Brandon Pfaadt is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 8-6 with a 5.42 ERA this season. His team lost their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 8 SO on 6 hits through 6 IP against the San Francisco Giants.
The Padres are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Texas Rangers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 48-42 record overall and have a home record of 27-16. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Diamondbacks on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Padres lost the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .689 OPS. Nick Pivetta is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Dylan Cease is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 3-8 with a 4.62 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers, and 0 walks with 4 strikeouts on 8 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction
The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 48-42 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They have also looked a lot better in their own ballpark this year with their 27-16 home record. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks haven't looked great in their games this season with their 45-46 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL West. They have been a decent road team though with their 22-21 road record this season. Neither team has been hot coming into this series as both teams are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and neither team has a solid starter either. The Diamondbacks are going with Pfaadt in this one and he hasn't looked great this year. He is 8-6 with a 5.42 ERA and has been giving up a lot of runs in his starts, but the team has still had a lot of success with him and has been giving him run support in his starts. He did give up 4 earned runs in his last start and the team has lost 4 games in a row now with him starting, but he will be looking to bounce back against this weaker offense, especially since the Diamondbacks have one of the best offenses in the MLB. Cease is on the mound for the Padres in this one and he hasn't looked good this season. He is 3-8 with a 4.62 ERA and he has also been giving up a lot of runs lately. He gave up 4 earned runs in his last start and the team has lost 2 games in a row now with him starting. The Padres have looked a lot better at home this season, but the Diamondbacks have the much better offense to help them out here and that gives them the edge with the way these two starters have been pitching. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game.
Diamondbacks Padres Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, July 9, 2025 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 7 Padres 4.
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MLB Betting Trends
Arizona Diamondbacks: 227-205 (+10.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 114-100 (+26 units) on the moneyline in road games. 94-104 (+18.1 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 44-29 OVER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better.
San Diego Padres: 117-90 (-10 units) on the moneyline in home games. 157-114 (-13.3 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 68-64 (-9.4 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 38-22 OVER at home against division opponents.
Key Injuries
Arizona Diamondbacks: K. Marte (2B) Day To Day - Groin. S. Miller (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. T. Henry (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Thompson (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Scapular Strain. P. Smith (1B) Ten Day IL - Oblique. I. Vargas (2B) Ten Day IL - Foot. G. Moreno (C) Ten Day IL - Hand. C. Montes De Oca (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Martinez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. K. Graveman (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Hip. C. Burnes (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Montgomery (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Walston (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
San Diego Padres: R. Bergert (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. M. King (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“It was a gut-check win. Our guys went out there, despite some very tough circumstances, blocked it out and executed and won a baseball game against really a team and a tough venue. And that's what we do. That's why I'm so proud of the way they came out, responded. They didn't let that news affect them on Shelby and Marte’s scratch. That happened very late. It's easy to get distracted, but this team doesn't. They go out there and fight and hustle and play hard, and it was a great win.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s win against the Padres in their game on Monday.
“That’s a lot of hits. A lot of ups and downs, a lot of struggles. It took a lot to get here. So I’m very grateful for it.” - Manny Machado on reaching 2,000 career hits in their loss against the Diamondbacks on Monday.
Starting Lineups
Arizona Diamondbacks
Corbin Carroll (L) RF
Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) DH
Josh Naylor (L) 1B
Eugenio Suárez (R) 3B
Jake McCarthy (L) LF
James McCann (R) C
Alek Thomas (L) CF
Blaze Alexander (R) 2B
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Luis Arraez (L) 1B
Gavin Sheets (L) LF
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Trenton Brooks (L) DH
Martín Maldonado (R) C
Statistical Leaders
Arizona Diamondbacks
Batting Average: James McCann (.333)
Hits: Josh Naylor (93)
Home Runs: Eugenio Suárez (28)
RBI: Eugenio Suárez (74)
Stolen Bases: Geraldo Perdomo (13)
Wins: Brandon Pfaadt (8)
Saves: Shelby Miller (10)
ERA: Christian Montes De Oca (0.00)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Bryce Johnson (.313)
Hits: Manny Machado (101)
Home Runs: Fernando Tatis (15)
RBI: Manny Machado (53)
Stolen Bases: Fernando Tatis (19)
Wins: Nick Pivetta (9)
Saves: Robert Suarez (25)
ERA: Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)
Managers:
Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (9th season)
San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)