Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/28/2026

Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Venue:  PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks -103, Pirates -117; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks -105, Pirates -115; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks -105, Pirates -115; Over/Under:  9 runs

Arizona Diamondbacks:  55-51 (2nd place, NL West)

Pittsburgh Pirates:  54-52 (3rd place, NL Central)

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Arizona Diamondbacks:  6-4 last 10

Pittsburgh Pirates:  5-5 last 10

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 55-51 record overall and have a road record of 24-29. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Tuesday with the series opener still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 20th in the MLB with a .709 OPS. Merrill Kelly is their starting pitcher on Monday while Brandon Pfaadt is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 5-1 with a 4.43 ERA this season. His team won their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 1 SO on 7 hits through 6 IP against the St Louis Cardinals.

The Pirates are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Chicago Cubs 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 54-52 record overall and have a home record of 28-26. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .760 OPS. Mitch Keller is their starting pitcher on Monday while Bubba Chandler is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 3-8 with a 4.47 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 5 strikeouts on 2 hits through 6.1 innings pitched against the New York Yankees.

The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks have looked good in their games this season with their 55-51 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They haven't been a great road team though with their 24-29 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Pirates have looked good in their games this season with their 54-52 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL Central. They have looked better in their own ballpark too with their 28-26 home record this season. The Pirates have one of the best offenses in the league and have been putting up a ton of runs lately, but they don't have a great pitching staff and have been really up and down all year because of it. They are coming off another series loss over the weekend and they are only 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Diamondbacks haven't had a great offense this season themselves, but lately they have been putting up a ton of runs in their games and they have been getting hot too, now 6-4 in their last 10 games. Pfaadt is on the mound for the Diamondbacks in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 5-1 with a 4.43 ERA, but the team has been having a ton of success with him all year. He has also looked a lot better lately, giving up 2 earned runs in his last start which is starting to become a common theme for him, and the team has won 5 games in a row now with him starting too. The Pirates are going with Chandler in this one and he hasn't looked great this season either. He is 3-8 with a 4.47 ERA and the team has had a lot of trouble with him. He is coming off a great start in which he gave up no runs and the team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting now, but that hasn't been a common theme for him and he doesn't have a good bullpen to help him out either. The Diamondbacks have looked a lot better than the Pirates have lately and Pfaadt should give the Diamondbacks the edge here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game. 

Diamondbacks Pirates Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, July 28, 2026 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 6 Pirates 4.

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Arizona Diamondbacks: 105-109 (+8.8 units) on the moneyline in road games. 88-105 (+9.2 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 109-109 (+12.1 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 16-7 UNDER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 35-43 (-7.3 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 202-228 (-17.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 85-68 (-9.9 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 23-14 UNDER at home when the total is 9 to 9.5.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  D. Jameson (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Hip. L. Gurriel Jr. (LF) Ten Day IL - Adductor. T. Troy (LF) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. Z. Gallen (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Lawlar (LF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. M. Soroka (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Lower-Body. R. Nelson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Walston (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Burnes (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Martinez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Saalfrank (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  R. Flores Jr. (C) Seven Day IL - Head. O. Cruz (CF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. K. Griffin (SS) Sixty Day IL - Finger. E. Rodriguez (C) Ten Day IL - Lower Body. E. Sisk (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. S. Horwitz (1B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. C. Devenski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Illness.

“The most important inning in baseball is the inning after you score, right? Shutdown inning. I think the walk to start the fifth was very critical.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s loss against the Nationals in their game on Sunday. 

“That was a big win today. The guys in the clubhouse have earned this spot, and to be in this position, to be in the race, they've earned the pressure, and I think that we're starting to see guys learn how to adjust to that.” - Don Kelly after his team’s win against the Cubs in their game on Sunday. 

Corbin Carroll (L) RF

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Gabriel Moreno (R) C

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Max Kepler (L) LF

Nolan Arenado (R) 3B

Adrian Del Castillo (L) DH

Tyler Locklear (R) 1B

Tim Tawa (R) CF

Jake Mangum (S) CF

Brandon Lowe (L) 2B

Bryan Reynolds (S) DH

Esmerlyn Valdez (R) RF

Ryan O'Hearn (L) 1B

Nick Gonzales (R) 3B

Jacob Gonzalez (L) SS

Shawn Ross (R) C

Tyler Callihan (L) LF

Batting Average:  Jordan Lawlar (.316)

Hits:  Ketel Marte (104)

Home Runs:  Ketel Marte (19)

RBI:  Ketel Marte (61)

Stolen Bases:  Geraldo Perdomo (17)

Wins:  Eduardo Rodriguez (9)

Saves:  Paul Sewald (24)

ERA:  Gerardo Carrillo (2.25)

Batting Average:  Nick Gonzales (.313)

Hits:  Nick Gonzales (118)

Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (21)

RBI:  Ryan O'Hearn (68)

Stolen Bases:  Oneil Cruz (21)

Wins:  Braxton Ashcraft (10)

Saves:  Gregory Soto (13)

ERA:  Khristian Curtis (0.00)

Managers:

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (10th season)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Don Kelly (2nd season)