Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Odds and Preview - 08/24/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 7:05 pm ET, Tuesday, August 24, 2021
Venue:  PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Where to Watch:  Sportsnet PT


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks -115, Pirates -105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks -125, Pirates +105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks -115, Pirates -105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Season Record

Arizona Diamondbacks:  42-83 (5th place, NL West)
Pittsburgh Pirates:  44-80 (5th place, NL Central)
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Arizona Diamondbacks:  7-3 last 10
Pittsburgh Pirates:  3-7 last 10

Offensive Analysis

The Pittsburgh Pirates have not been having a good year with their hitters this season, ranking in the bottom 10 of the MLB. They are ranked 27th in the league for batting average (.232), 30th in the league for RBI (415), 25th in the league for hits (951), and they are ranked 26th in the league for OBP (.302). The Arizona Diamondbacks have been bad with their hitters this season but a little better than the Pirates, ranking in the bottom half of the MLB. They are ranked 20th in the league for batting average (.237), 22nd in the league for RBI (498), 14th in the league for hits (1003), and they are ranked 18th in the league for OBP (.313).

Defensive Analysis

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been awful this season with their pitching, ranking in the bottom 5 of the MLB. They are ranked _28th in the league for ERA (5.02), 30th in the league for saves (16), 23rd in the league for strikeouts (1004), and they are ranked 28th in the league for WHIP (1.41). The Arizona Diamondbacks have been just as bad this season with their pitching, ranking in the bottom 5 of the MLB as well. They are ranked 29th in the league for ERA (5.21), 29th in the league for saves (17), 28th in the league for strikeouts (969), and they are ranked 29th in the league for WHIP (1.44).


Pirates Diamondbacks Prediction

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Arizona Diamondbacks begin a three-game series as they meet Monday night. RHP Humberto Mejia and RHP Wil Crowe will be the starting pitcher matchup for this contest on Monday night. Tuesday’s game will feature Madison Bumgarner and JT Brubaker as the starting pitchers on the mound. The playoff hopes for both of these sides have basically gone out the window as both currently sit in last place of each of their divisions. The real battle between them is to see who will not finish in last place of the National League.
Madison Bumgarner is the projected starting pitcher for the D-backs in this one. He is 7-7 this season with a 4.06 ERA. He has pitched well recently, picking up 3 wins in his last 4 starts where there was not a no-decision. His team has won 5 of their last 6 games when he has started on the mound for them. He has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of his starts this last seven-game stretch, averaging less than 2 runs allowed per game in that span. In his last time out against the Philadelphia Phillies, he pitched great, only allowing 1 ER and 1 BB on 3 hits through 8 IP. He has pitched so well in recent starts and has been going the distance as well. He will be looking to continue that great run in this game.
JT Brubaker is the projected starter for the Pirates in this game. He is 4-13 this MLB season with a 5.49 ERA. He has lost his last 9 starts where there was a decision made. The team has won just 1 time in his last 12 starts overall. He has made 22 appearances on the mound this year and his team has lost 17 of those games. He has not been pitching well recently either, allowing 21 runs total in his last 3 starts. In his last start against the Dodgers, he allowed 7 earned runs and 2 BB on 8 hits through just 4 IP as his team went on to lose 9-0. He has been consistently bad all season and it is tough to see him turning it around.
The MLB odds for the D-backs are listed as a slight road favorite while the Pirates odds are listed as slight underdogs. With the way Brubaker has been and his recent results, it is hard to back the home team here. The bullpens have not been any better for either side but, the snakes have a big advantage with Bumgarner who can pitch deep into the game so they do not even need to hand it over to the back end. They also have the advantage with their offense as Arizona’s bats have been coming alive in recent games and should have a field day between Brubaker and the Pittsburgh bullpen. Arizona has definitely been in much better shape giving some betting leverage on them. By the looks of the prices, there is some big upside with taking them on the money line in this MLB game against a team even worse than them.
Diamondbacks Pirates Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, August 24, 2021 (7:05pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 6 Pirates 1.
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MLB Betting Trends

Arizona Diamondbacks: 20-23 (+6.7 units) on the money line in the 2nd half of the season. 9-11 (+4.7 units) on the money line in the month of August.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 5-3 (+1.4 units) at home when the money line is +100 to -150.

Key Injuries

Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun (RF) Out indefinitely due to a hamstring injury.
Pittsburgh Pirates:  Anthony Alford (CF) Out indefinitely due to a back injury.

Players to Watch

Arizona Diamondbacks: One player to watch on this team is Josh Rojas. He was very quiet in the last series against the Colorado Rockies with only 2 hits on 9 at bats and nothing else to show for. He was on an 8 game hitting streak that was snapped in the last 2 games of that series. He leads the team in HR and in SB so this is a player that is looking to make his mark whether it is at the plate or on the bases. Ketel Marte is another player to watch in this one. He leads his team in batting average this season and is looking to continue his good offensive numbers from the last series. His batting numbers were great in the last series, he had 6 hits, 3 RBI, and 1 run scored, including a HR, in 11 at bats. His home-park numbers have been worse than on the road in recent games so he is a player to watch out for.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds has been having a great year for the Pirates as he leads his team in all major offensive categories such as OPS, batting average, hits, HR, and RBI. He was very quiet in the last series against the St. Louis Cardinals with only 2 hits and 1 run scored on 10 at bats. He will be looking to get back on track in this series as he has clearly been the best player for the Pirates. If the Pirates expect to do anything they will need their top spot player performing at his best.

Notable Quotes

"It probably would have felt better if I was pitching a little bit better. I'm happy to finally get it. It took long enough." - Taylor Widener on hitting his first ever single in major league baseball games.

"We need to come up with a better game plan. At some point we have to figure out a way to combat that because he's gotten us three times now." - Derek Shelton on the dominance of Adam Wainwright over his team the past few years.

Starting Lineups

Arizona Diamondbacks
J. Rojas (SS)
K. Marte (CF)
P. Smith (RF)
C. Walker (1B)
D. Peralta (LF)
J. VanMeter (2B)
D. Ellis (3B)
D. Varsho (C)
T. Widener (P)
Pittsburgh Pirates 
Y. Tsutsugo (LF)
K. Hayes (3B)
B. Reynolds (CF)
C. Moran (1B)
G. Polanco (RF)
K. Newman (SS)
M. Perez (C)
H. Park (2B)
S. Brault (P)

Statistical Leaders

Arizona Diamondbacks
Batting Average:  Ketel Marte (.342)
Hits:  Pavin Smith (108)
Home Runs:  Josh Rojas (11)
RBI:  David Peralta (50)
Stolen Bases:  Josh Rojas (7)
Wins:  Madison Bumgarner (7)
Saves:  Tyler Clippard (4)
ERA:  Tyler Gilbert (2.04)
Pittsburgh Pirates 
Batting Average:  Bryan Reynolds (.306)
Hits: Bryan Reynolds (132)
Home Runs:  Bryan Reynolds (21)
RBI:  Bryan Reynolds (72)
Stolen Bases:  Gregory Polanco (14)
Wins:  Chris Stratton(4)
Saves: Chris Stratton (1)
ERA:  Steven Brault (1.84)
Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (5th season)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (2nd season)

Weather Forecast

Mostly sunny, 88 degrees 62% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 4 mph wind speeds east.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

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