Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds and Preview - 08/27/2021

by James Q


Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds and Preview - 08/27/2021


Game Time: 7:05 pm ET, Friday, August 27th, 2021
Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Where to Watch:  Bally Sports Arizona, NBCSP

Season-to-Date Record:


Diamondbacks:  43-85 (last place, NL West)
Phillies:  63-63 (2nd place, NL East)

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks:


DraftKings:  Moneyline odds: Diamondbacks +175, Phillies -210; Over/Under: 8.5 runs

Key Injuries:


Diamondbacks:  Kole Calhoun (hamstring) Out, Merrill Kelly (ill) Out, Luke Weaver (shoulder) Out

Phillies:  Jose Alvarado (shoulder) Out, Matt Joyce (60-day IL) Out

Recent Lineups:


Diamondbacks:

J. Rojas, 2B
K. Marte, CF
P. Smith, RF
C. Walker, 1B
J. VanMeter, 2B
D. Peralta, LF
D. Varsho, C
D. Ellis, 3B
T. Gilbert, P

Phillies:

J. Segura, 2B
J. Realmuto, C
B. Harper, RF
R. Hoskins, 1B
A. McCutchen, LF
F. Galvis, SS
R. Torreyes, 3B
L. Williams, CF
Z. Wheeler, P

Statistical Leaders:


Diamondbacks:


Batting Average:  Josh Rojas (.279)

Hits:  Pavin Smith (112)

Home Runs:  Eduardo Escobar (22)

RBI:  Eduardo Escobar (65)

Stolen Bases: Nick Ahmed (7)

Wins:  Merrill Kelly (7)

Saves:  Joakim Soria (6)

ERA:  Merrill Kelly (4.30)


Phillies:


Batting Average:  Bryce Harper (.293)

Hits:  Jean Segura (109)

Home Runs:  Rhys Hoskins (27)

RBI:  Rhys Hoskins (27)

Stolen Bases: Bryce Harper (12)

Wins:  Zack Wheeler (10)

Saves:  Hector Neris (12)

ERA:  Zack Wheeler (2.90)

Managers:


Diamondbacks:  Torey Lovullo, 6th year, most likely last
Phillies:  Joe Girardi, 5th year, 


Recent Form:


The Arizona Diamondbacks are 5-5 over their last ten games.  Logging 4 Overs, 5 Unders, and 1 Push.  AZ, owners of the worst record in MLB and the second-worst home record… actually had a great ten games.  Half of Arizona games were winners! They went 1-2 against the Pittsburgh Pirates, 1-2 against the Colorado Rockies, Swept the Phillies 3-0, and went 0-1 against the San Diego Padres.

The Philadelphia Phillies went 3-7 over their last ten games.  Hitting 4 Overs, 5 Unders and 1 Push.  They are definitely not playing like a team in the thick of the playoff race.  Uncertainty is the way to describe the Phillies coming into the end of the season.  Phillies RHP Kyle Gibson made his 22nd start of the year (third since joining the Phillies) on August 17th and lost to these Diamondbacks.  These lowly lowly Diamondbacks.  They ended up swept in that 3 game series.  Unthinkable.    Over the ten games they went 0-2 against the Tampa Bay Rays, 2-1 against the Philadelphia Phillies, 0-3 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, 1-1 against the Cincinnati Reds.  They won’t catch the Atlanta Braves at this rate.


Statistical Comparison:


The Diamondbacks are 21st in team batting average .237, 22nd in runs scored 536, and 29th in home runs 113.  The bottom line is they can’t hit.  The bats are cold.  But the Diamondbacks hitters are better than the Diamondbacks pitchers.

The Diamondbacks pitchers are 29th in team ERA 5.19.. Only the Baltimore Orioles have a worse rotation… 28th in strikeouts 990… only the Texas Rangers and St Louis Cardinals also have below 1000 strikeouts…  They are #2 in losses credited to a pitcher.  The Diamondbacks starters are bad… The bullpen is just as bad. The Diamondbacks odds go down from the first pitch on.

The Phillies are 18th in batting average .238, 16th in runs scored 558, 20th in home runs 149, and their best stat is 12th in BB.  It’s not much better than average but in all these categories they outclass the Diamondbacks, even the walks.

The Phillies pitchers are 18th in ERA 4.40, 11th in strikeouts 1141, 15th in runs given up by a pitcher (middle).  With 1100 IP the Phillies have proven (at time of publishing) that they are right in the middle of the pack in all of Major League Baseball.  No guarantee of winning and no warranties against losing.


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Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game Preview:


Arizona will start righty Taylor Widener 2-1, 4.34 ERA, 60 strikeouts in 56 innings pitched, 1.38 WHIP.  For a full list of his MLB career stats just add 20 innings.  He briefly appeared last season as well but the 26 year old is as green as they come.  He should be in the minors working on his skill set, seeing as his last 7 games come with 5.63 ERA and 28 hits in 32 innings.  Both numbers scream more time in the minors… but the Diamondbacks are a team that still occasionally uses Madison Bumgarner as a starter… so they are thin.  If Taylor can pay attention to his accuracy and continue to remind himself they beat these guys at Chase Field 3 in a row recently… and Taylor’s last appearance was a win against Colorado… he could go 4 solid innings before the relief corps comes in.

The Phillies will start Aaron Nola 7-7, 4.33 ERA, 174 strikeouts in 143 innings of work, 1.12 WHIP.  The ERA’s are the same but Aaron has loads more experience (debut 2015, 986 innings pitched since).  All the MLB picks I’ve seen favor Aaron in this matchup.  

The Diamondbacks projected total wins on the season is 50, I don’t see how they even get there.  News coverage will include a Diamondback highlight if something wild happens for entertainment purposes only.  They don’t matter and betting services will be happy to take your money if you think the money line return is tempting.  The National League is exciting right now with the race at the top, but I can’t find anybody in Arizona I would even want on my fantasy baseball roster let alone to put real life money on.


Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction

Our MLB Pick for Friday, August 27th game is Phillies 9 Diamondbacks 2.  



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James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

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