Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/04/2023

Game Time: 8:10 pm ET, Friday, August 4, 2023

Venue:  Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

Where to Watch:  BSN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +114, Twins -135; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +115, Twins -135; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +105, Twins -125; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Arizona Diamondbacks:  57-52 (3rd place, NL West)

Minnesota Twins:  55-54 (1st place, AL Central)

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Arizona Diamondbacks:  3-7 last 10

Minnesota Twins:  4-6 last 10

The Diamondbacks entered their last series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Seattle Mariners 2-1. They enter this game with a 57-52 record overall and have a road record of 29-24. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Twins on Friday with the series finale of their series against the San Francisco Giants still to be played on Thursday. They also won the series opener of that series on Monday but lost the 2nd game and the 3rd game on Tuesday and Wednesday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .749 OPS. Rookie pitcher Brandon Pfaadt is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Merrill Kelly is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 6 Ks on 7 hits through 5 IP against the Seattle Mariners.

The Twins entered their last series on a 5 game losing streak and got swept 3-0 in their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals. They enter this game with a 55-54 record overall and have a home record of 30-24. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Friday with the 3rd game of their series against the St Louis Cardinals still to be played on Thursday. They also won the 1st game of that series on Tuesday but lost the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .725 OPS. Sonny Gray is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Bailey Ober is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 6-5 with a 3.19 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers, and 0 BB with 5 strikeouts on 11 hits through 4 innings played against the Kansas City Royals.

The current betting odds have the Twins listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Twins haven't been great this season as they have been struggling just to stay over .500 but they do lead their division and will be looking to hang onto that lead at home here. The Diamondbacks haven't been that great lately either as they led the NL West for most of the season but now sit in 3rd place after slipping down over the last few weeks. Their pitching hasn't been great this season either since they have been leaning heavily on their offense to win games but their offense has gone cold lately and they won't have an easy time putting up runs with the way the Twins have been pitching. The Twins have Ober on the mound here and he has been lights out all season, not giving up many runs in his starts lately either. He will shut down this struggling Diamondbacks offense. The Diamondbacks do have a good starter here with Kelly on the mound but he has also missed a lot of time this season due to injuries and the Twins have been a very different team at home this season. The Twins have the better pitching matchup here and they will do what they need to do to put up runs at home here where they have been a lot better all year. The best way to place a bet here is on the Twins to win this game.

Diamondbacks Twins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, August 4, 2023 (8:10 pm ET start time) is Twins 3 Diamondbacks 1.

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Arizona Diamondbacks: 57-52 (+8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 29-24 (+9.8 units) on the moneyline in road games. 18-8 UNDER in an inter-league game. MERRILL KELLY is 12-6 UNDER in all games.

Minnesota Twins: 55-54 (-12.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 44-41 (-8 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. BAILEY OBER is 29-18 UNDER in all games and 8-2 UNDER in home games.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  A. Adams (RP) out for season - Ankle. M. Melancon (RP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. T. Henry (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. D. Jameson (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. E. Longoria (3B) Out indefinitely - Back. G. Moreno (C) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. Z. Davies (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. C. Martin (SP) out for season - Shoulder.

Minnesota Twins:  B. Buxton (DH) Ques Thurs - Hamstring. J. Alcala (RP) Mid Aug - Forearm. B. Stewart (RP) Mid Aug - Elbow. R. Lewis (SS) Mid Aug - Oblique. A. Kirilloff (RF) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. J. Miranda (3B) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. J. De Leon (RP) out for season - Elbow. N. Gordon (2B) Out indefinitely - Shin. T. Mahle (SP) out for season - Elbow. C. Paddack (SP) Early Sept - Elbow.

“It's going to be talked about for a long time. You can't dream up how you get your first career strikeout. Look, he one day will be able to tell a great story about my first one and nobody will believe it, you’ll have to go to the tape for proof of that. But we had a good laugh about it in the dugout. But what he did was, he settled in after that and made pitches and did a really good job." - Torey Lovullo after his team’s loss against the Giants in their game on Wednesday.

“It was not how we planned the outing going. It was pretty frustrating. ... I put the ball where I wanted to and they're doing damage. That's never a fun combination.” - Joe Ryan after their loss against the Cardinals in their game on Wednesday.

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Corbin Carroll (L) LF

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) DH

Jace Peterson (L) 3B

Jake McCarthy (L) RF

Emmanuel Rivera (R) 1B

Alek Thomas (L) CF

Jose Herrera (S) C

Carlos Correa (R) SS

Edouard Julien (L) DH

Jorge Polanco (S) 2B

Max Kepler (L) RF

Kyle Farmer (R) 3B

Matt Wallner (L) LF

Christian Vazquez (R) C

Joey Gallo (L) 1B

Michael A. Taylor (R) CF

Batting Average:  Jace Peterson (.333)

Hits:  Ketel Marte (115)

Home Runs:  Christian Walker (22)

RBI:  Christian Walker (68)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (33)

Wins:  Zac Gallen (11)

Saves:  Scott McGough (9)

ERA:  Kevin Ginkel (2.18)

Batting Average:  Royce Lewis (.326)

Hits:  Carlos Correa (85)

Home Runs:  Joey Gallo (17)

RBI:  Carlos Correa (45)

Stolen Bases:  Willi Castro (26)

Wins:  Joe Ryan (9)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (18)

ERA:  Dylan Floro (0.00)

Managers:

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (7th season)

Minnesota Twins: Rocco Baldelli (5th season)