Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/03/2023

Game Time: 7:08 pm ET, Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Venue:  American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI 

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  D-Backs +150, Brewers -180; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  D-Backs +165, Brewers -185; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  D-Backs +155, Brewers -190; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Arizona Diamondbacks:  84-78 (2nd place, NL West)

Milwaukee Brewers:  92-70 (1st place, NL Central)

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Arizona Diamondbacks:  4-6 last 10

Milwaukee Brewers:  6-4 last 10

The Diamondbacks are entering this series on a 4 game losing streak and got swept 3-0 in their 3-game series against the Houston Astros in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with an 84-78 record overall and had a road record of 41-40. This is the series opener of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Brewers on Tuesday for the NL Wild Card Series and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .730 OPS. Kyle Nelson was their starting pitcher on Sunday while rookie pitcher Brandon Pfaadt is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 8 Ks on 5 hits through 5.2 IP against the Chicago White Sox.

The Brewers are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Chicago Cubs 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 92-70 record overall and had a home record of 49-32. This is the 1st game of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday for the NL Wild Card Series and they had Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .704 OPS. Adrian Houser was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Corbin Burnes is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 4 strikeouts on 5 hits through 4 innings played against the St Louis Cardinals.

The current betting odds have the Brewers listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This will be the 1st game of a best of 3 series to see who advances to the NLDS. The Brewers finished the regular season with a better record than the Diamondbacks and they also won the NL Central so they have home advantage in this series. The Brewers offense hasn't been great this season but they do have one of the best pitching staffs in the league and that is going to go a long way here. The Brewers offense will have an easier time here too since the Diamondbacks are going with rookie Pfaadt to start in this 1st playoff game. The Brewers will get to this rookie for some runs at home in this big game and the Diamondbacks bullpen hasn't been great this year either. The Diamondbacks did have one of the strongest offenses in the MLB during the regular season but they have been slipping over the last few weeks and are now in the bottom half of the MLB so the Brewers pitching staff will have no problems shutting them down here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Brewers to win this game and on the runline.

Diamondbacks Brewers Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, October 3, 2023 (7:08 pm ET start time) is Brewers 5 Diamondbacks 1.

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Arizona Diamondbacks: 2-11 (-9.8 units) on the moneyline after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games. 2-11 (-9.1 units) on the moneyline after 4 or more consecutive unders. 23-10 UNDER after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more. 13-7 UNDER after 2 straight games with no home runs. 32-18 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive home games.

Milwaukee Brewers: 92-70 (+13.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 69-44 (+22.2 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 11-4 (+7.7 units) on the moneyline after shutting out their opponent. 38-18 UNDER after 2 straight games where they committed no errors. 16-8 UNDER as a home favorite of -150 or more. 

Arizona Diamondbacks:  M. Melancon (RP) out for season - Shoulder. S. McGough (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Henry (SP) out for season - Elbow. D. Jameson (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Fletcher (RF) out for season - Finger. A. Adams (RP) out for season - Ankle. C. Martin (SP) out for season - Shoulder.

Milwaukee Brewers:  J. Bukauskas (RP) Out indefinitely - Finger. D. Ruf (DH) Early Oct - Knee. J. Winker (DH) Early Oct - Back. J. Mejia (SP) out for season - Shoulder. E. Peguero (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. T. Vieira (RP) Out indefinitely - Calf. A. Ashby (SP) out for season - Shoulder. J. Wilson (RP) out for season - Arm.

“Maybe we were a little flat, most of us were probably up a little late last night. For sure there was a little lull in focus and energy. I get that, but let's push that aside.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s loss against the Astros in their last game of the regular season on Sunday.

“It’s going to be a battle. That’s how it works now. Nobody is going to care about rest. It’s a three-game series where you just go after it and you pull out all the stops.” - Craig Counsell after his team’s win against the Cubs in their final game of the season on Sunday.

Jordan Lawlar (R) SS

Jake McCarthy (L) RF

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) LF

Evan Longoria (R) DH

Alek Thomas (L) CF

Emmanuel Rivera (R) 1B

Jace Peterson (L) 3B

Seby Zavala (R) C

Geraldo Perdomo (S) 2B

Christian Yelich (L) LF

William Contreras (R) C

Carlos Santana (S) DH

Mark Canha (R) 1B

Willy Adames (R) SS

Josh Donaldson (R) 3B

Garrett Mitchell (L) CF

Tyrone Taylor (R) RF

Brice Turang (L) 2B

Batting Average:  Seby Zavala (.357)

Hits:  Corbin Carroll (161)

Home Runs:  Christian Walker (33)

RBI:  Christian Walker (103)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (54)

Wins:  Zac Gallen (17)

Saves:  Paul Sewald (13)

ERA:  Peter Strzelecki (0.00)

Batting Average:  Abraham Toro (.444)

Hits:  William Contreras (157)

Home Runs:  Willy Adames (24)

RBI:  Willy Adames (80)

Stolen Bases:  Christian Yelich (28)

Wins:  Freddy Peralta (12)

Saves:  Devin Williams (36)

ERA:  Alex Claudio (0.00)

Managers:

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (7th season)

Milwaukee Brewers: Craig Counsell (9th season)