by Rod Pearson
Friday, Oct 06, 2023
Game Time: 9:20 pm ET, Saturday, October 7, 2023
Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: TBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: D-Backs +164, Dodgers -198; Over/Under: 8 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: D-Backs +170, Dodgers -200; Over/Under: 8 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: D-Backs +155, Dodgers -190; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Season Record
Arizona Diamondbacks: 84-78 (2nd place, NL West)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 100-62 (1st place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Arizona Diamondbacks: 5-5 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers: 6-4 last 10
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Analysis
The Diamondbacks are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their best 2 out of 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-0 in the NL Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with an 84-78 record overall and had a road record of 41-40. This is the series opener of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the LA Dodgers on Saturday for the NL Division Series. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .730 OPS. Zac Gallen was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Merrill Kelly is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 5 Ks on 5 hits through 7 IP against the Houston Astros.
The Dodgers are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 100-62 record overall and had a home record of 53-28. This is the 1st game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Diamondbacks on Saturday for the NL Division Series. Their offense ranks 2nd in the MLB with a .795 OPS. Rookie pitcher Bobby Miller was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Clayton Kershaw is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 13-5 with a 2.46 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 BB with 5 strikeouts on 5 hits through 5.1 innings played against the San Francisco Giants.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Dodgers listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dodgers have been really good all season with one of the best offenses in the entire MLB and they also have one of the best lineups. They have struggled with their pitching this season but they have Kershaw on the mound here and he has been pitching really well lately. He also has a lot of playoff experience and the Dodgers will be looking to make it back to the World Series this season after missing out last year. The Diamondbacks have been hot lately as they slipped into the Wild Card Round and swept the Brewers on the road in 2 games but the Brewers also had a really bad offense so the D-Backs pitching staff wasn't too stressed in that series. The Diamondbacks haven't had great pitching this year though and they are going to struggle a lot more against a lineup like the Dodgers who can really smack the ball. The Diamondbacks also had one of the best offenses in the MLB in the 1st half of the season but their offense has been on the decline in the 2nd half of the year and that is going to be a big problem here against one of the best offenses in the MLB and with a weaker pitching staff. The Dodgers are going to be motivated to get back to the World Series this year and they won't waste these games at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dodgers to win this game and on the runline.
Diamondbacks Dodgers Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Saturday, October 7, 2023 (9:20 pm ET start time) is Dodgers 8 Diamondbacks 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
Arizona Diamondbacks: 86-78 (+9.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 26-26 (+9.6 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 or higher. 24-11 UNDER after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more. 28-19 UNDER against left-handed starters.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 21-16 (-12.2 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -175 to -250. 53-45 (-14.4 units) on the moneyline after a win. 13-7 UNDER as a home favorite of -175 to -250. CLAYTON KERSHAW is 8-4 UNDER as a favorite of -150 or more.
Key Injuries
Arizona Diamondbacks: G. Moreno (C) Ques Sat - Concussion. J. McCarthy (RF) Out indefinitely - Oblique. M. Melancon (RP) out for season - Shoulder. T. Henry (SP) out for season - Elbow. D. Jameson (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Fletcher (RF) out for season - Finger. A. Adams (RP) out for season - Ankle. C. Martin (SP) out for season - Shoulder.
Los Angeles Dodgers: L. Lynn (SP) Ques Sat - Personal. M. Rojas (SS) Ques Sat - Hand. B. Treinen (RP) Mid Oct - Shoulder. D. Hudson (RP) Mid Oct - Knee. T. Cyr (RP) Mid Oct - Shoulder. J. Marisnick (CF) Mid Oct - Hamstring. Y. Almonte (RP) Prob Sat - Knee. G. Varland (SP) out for season - Knee. W. Buehler (SP) out for season - Elbow. J. Urias (SP) Out indefinitely - Personal. T. Gonsolin (SP) out for season - Elbow. J. Feyereisen (RP) out for season - Shoulder. D. May (SP) out for season - Elbow. A. Reyes (SP) out for season - Shoulder. G. Lux (2B) out for season - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“Considering what we’ve walked through and the dark times that we had, this is a pretty special moment. There’s a lot of emotion inside of this organization, inside of this clubhouse right now.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s win against the Brewers in their game on Wednesday.
“Brandon, he's one of my top, as a manager, one of the top-10 players I get to see — maybe top-five favorite players. He's one of those guys that could have played in any era.” - Dave Roberts on Brandon Crawford after his team’s win against the Padres in their last game of the regular season.
Starting Lineups
Arizona Diamondbacks
Corbin Carroll (L) RF
Ketel Marte (S) 2B
Tommy Pham (R) DH
Christian Walker (R) 1B
Gabriel Moreno (R) C
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) LF
Alek Thomas (L) CF
Evan Longoria (R) 3B
Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts (R) RF
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Will Smith (R) C
J.D. Martinez (R) DH
Max Muncy (L) 3B
Chris Taylor (R) LF
Amed Rosario (R) 2B
James Outman (L) CF
Enrique Hernandez (R) SS
Statistical Leaders
Arizona Diamondbacks
Batting Average: Seby Zavala (.357)
Hits: Corbin Carroll (161)
Home Runs: Christian Walker (33)
RBI: Christian Walker (103)
Stolen Bases: Corbin Carroll (54)
Wins: Zac Gallen (17)
Saves: Paul Sewald (13)
ERA: Peter Strzelecki (0.00)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Jake Marisnick (.400)
Hits: Freddie Freeman (211)
Home Runs: Mookie Betts (39)
RBI: Mookie Betts (107)
Stolen Bases: Freddie Freeman (23)
Wins: Clayton Kershaw (13)
Saves: Evan Phillips (24)
ERA: Tyler Cyr (0.00)
Managers:
Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (7th season)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
