Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/05/2026

Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Saturday, September 5, 2026

Venue:  Daikin Park, Houston, TX 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV, FOX

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks -108, Astros -112; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks -110, Astros -110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks -110, Astros -110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Arizona Diamondbacks:  74-67 (2nd place, NL West)

Houston Astros:  72-69 (1st place, AL West)

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Arizona Diamondbacks:  5-5 last 10

Houston Astros:  7-3 last 10

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 74-67 record overall and have a road record of 33-36. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 22nd in the MLB with a .709 OPS. Merrill Kelly is their starting pitcher on Friday while Brandon Pfaadt is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 7-2 with a 3.49 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 1 SO on 5 hits through 6 IP against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Astros are entering this series off a win and won their 4-game series against the Chicago White Sox 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 72-69 record overall and have a home record of 36-36. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 14th in the MLB with a .723 OPS. Cristian Javier is their starting pitcher on Friday while rookie pitcher Ethan Pecko is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 1-0 with a 6.23 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 2 homers, and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts on 3 hits through 5 innings pitched against the New York Mets.

The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Astros have looked good in their games this season with their 72-69 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West. They haven't looked great in their own ballpark though with their 36-36 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have looked good in their games this season with their 74-67 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They haven't been a good road team though with their 33-36 road record this year. The Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 games and they have been rolling lately, but the offense has been really up and down. The Diamondbacks are only 5-5 in their last 10 games and haven't looked that great, but they are fighting to keep that last Wild Card spot in the NL and they are going to have the better pitching matchup here. The Diamondbacks are going with Pfaadt in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 7-2 with a 3.49 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He is coming off another good start giving up 2 earned runs which has been a common theme for him all year and the team has also had success with him lately, winning 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. The Astros are going with Pecko in this one and he hasn't looked great this year. He is 1-0 with a 6.23 ERA and he hasn't had a great rookie year, not with a lot of MLB experience either. The team has won 3 games in a row with him starting and he only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start too, but that hasn't been a common theme for him and he isn't as reliable as Pfaadt has been for the Diamondbacks. Look for the Diamondbacks to take advantage of this pitching matchup and keep themselves in that last Wild Card spot. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game. 

Diamondbacks Astros Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, September 5, 2026 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 4 Astros 2.

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Arizona Diamondbacks: 242-223 (+8.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 114-116 (+13 units) on the moneyline in road games. 130-123 (+7.7 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 107-71 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5.

Houston Astros: 248-217 (-5.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 128-107 (-15.1 units) on the moneyline in home games. 106-100 (-16.3 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 32-20 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  M. Soroka (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Arm. R. Thompson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. Z. Gallen (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Troy (LF) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. R. Nelson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Burnes (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Saalfrank (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

Houston Astros:  B. Matthews (CF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. M. Burrows (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. C. Correa (SS) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. B. Walter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

"We sold out to a plan. We followed that plan from a pitching standpoint, we knew how many innings we had left. We weren't totally desperate, but every matchup that we wanted went the way we wanted. [The relievers] were unbelievable." - Torey Lovullo after his team’s win against the Phillies in their game on Wednesday.

“We needed to come here at home and play well and I thought we did. We pitched really well, too. It’s the kind of series that I’m expecting the boys to do this time of year. That was really good. Good baseball.” - Joe Espada after his team’s win against the White Sox in their game on Thursday. 

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Corbin Carroll (L) RF

Gabriel Moreno (R) C

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Lars Nootbaar (L) DH

Nolan Arenado (R) 3B

Max Kepler (L) LF

Tim Tawa (R) 1B

Ryan Waldschmidt (R) CF

Jeremy Peña (R) SS

Yordan Alvarez (L) DH

Isaac Paredes (R) 3B

Jose Altuve (R) 2B

Daulton Varsho (L) CF

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Taylor Trammell (L) RF

Yainer Diaz (R) C

LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) LF

Batting Average:  Gabriel Moreno (.298)

Hits:  Geraldo Perdomo (123)

Home Runs:  Ketel Marte (21)

RBI:  Ketel Marte (67)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (21)

Wins:  Eduardo Rodriguez (14)

Saves:  Paul Sewald (24)

ERA:  Justin Martinez (0.00)

Batting Average:  Yordan Alvarez (.316)

Hits:  Yordan Alvarez (157)

Home Runs:  Yordan Alvarez (37)

RBI:  Yordan Alvarez (94)

Stolen Bases:  Cam Smith (10)

Wins:  Peter Lambert (8)

Saves:  Josh Hader (22)

ERA:  Josh Hader (0.72)

Managers:

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (10th season)

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (3rd season)