Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/04/2026

Game Time: 8:10 pm ET, Friday, September 4, 2026

Venue:  Daikin Park, Houston, TX 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +109, Astros -131; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +110, Astros -130; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Diamondbacks +110, Astros -135; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Arizona Diamondbacks:  74-67 (2nd place, NL West)

Houston Astros:  71-69 (1st place, AL West)

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Arizona Diamondbacks:  5-5 last 10

Houston Astros:  6-4 last 10

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 74-67 record overall and have a road record of 33-36. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Astros on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 22nd in the MLB with a .710 OPS. Taylor Clarke was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Merrill Kelly is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 9-12 with a 5.08 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 4 BB with 7 SO on 2 hits through 7 IP against the San Francisco Giants.

The Astros are entering this series off a win and won their 4-game series against the Chicago White Sox 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 71-69 record overall and have a home record of 35-36. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Friday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .723 OPS. Hunter Brown was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Cristian Javier is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 1-5 with a 6.45 ERA this season. His team lost their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 walks with 4 strikeouts on 6 hits through 4.1 innings pitched against the New York Mets.

The current betting odds have the Astros listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Astros have looked good in their games this season with their 71-69 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West. They haven't looked great in their own ballpark though with their 35-36 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have looked good in their games this season with their 74-67 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They haven't been a good road team though with their 33-36 road record this year. The Diamondbacks are in that last Wild Card spot in the NL, but they just lost their last series at home to the Phillies and they haven't looked great lately either, going 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Astros just won a 4-game series against the White Sox though, now 6-4 in their last 10 games, and they have been getting hot again as they look to keep their slim lead in the AL West. The Astros are going with Javier in this one and he hasn't looked good this season. He is 1-5 with a 6.45 ERA and he has been giving up a ton of runs all year. The team hasn't had any success with him lately either, losing 5 games in a row now with him starting, but he did look better in his last start. He still gave up 3 earned runs, but he does have the better bullpen to help him out here and the Astros also have the stronger offense. The Diamondbacks are going with Kelly in this one and he hasn't looked good this season either. He is 9-12 with a 5.08 ERA and he has been giving up a lot of runs all year. He is coming off a good start in which he gave up no runs, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and the team has still lost 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. The Astros are in control of their division right now and won't be looking to give that up, so look for them to take advantage of this pitching matchup with the stronger bullpen and offense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Astros to win this game. 

Diamondbacks Astros Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, September 4, 2026 (8:10 pm ET start time) is Astros 7 Diamondbacks 4.

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Arizona Diamondbacks: 242-223 (+8.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 114-116 (+13 units) on the moneyline in road games. 99-113 (+16.1 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 107-71 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5.

Houston Astros: 247-217 (-6.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 127-107 (-16.1 units) on the moneyline in home games. 143-123 (-35.8 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 32-19 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  M. Soroka (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Arm. R. Thompson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. Z. Gallen (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Troy (LF) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. R. Nelson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Burnes (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Saalfrank (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

Houston Astros:  B. Matthews (CF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. M. Burrows (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. C. Correa (SS) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. B. Walter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

"We sold out to a plan. We followed that plan from a pitching standpoint, we knew how many innings we had left. We weren't totally desperate, but every matchup that we wanted went the way we wanted. [The relievers] were unbelievable." - Torey Lovullo after his team’s win against the Phillies in their game on Wednesday.

“The moments are not getting too big for him anymore. I’m starting to give him the ball in big spots because he’s earned the right to do that. He can pitch out of trouble, and he can get punchouts." - Joe Espada on Blubaugh after his team’s win against the White Sox in their game on Wednesday.

Lars Nootbaar (L) LF

Corbin Carroll (L) RF

Gabriel Moreno (R) DH

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Nolan Arenado (R) 3B

Tim Tawa (R) 1B

James McCann (R) C

Ildemaro Vargas (S) 2B

Jordan Lawlar (R) CF

Jeremy Peña (R) SS

Yordan Alvarez (L) DH

Isaac Paredes (R) 3B

Jose Altuve (R) 2B

Daulton Varsho (L) CF

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Taylor Trammell (L) RF

Yainer Diaz (R) C

LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) LF

Batting Average:  Gabriel Moreno (.298)

Hits:  Geraldo Perdomo (124)

Home Runs:  Ketel Marte (21)

RBI:  Ketel Marte (67)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (21)

Wins:  Eduardo Rodriguez (14)

Saves:  Paul Sewald (24)

ERA:  Justin Martinez (0.00)

Batting Average:  Yordan Alvarez (.317)

Hits:  Yordan Alvarez (157)

Home Runs:  Yordan Alvarez (37)

RBI:  Yordan Alvarez (94)

Stolen Bases:  Cam Smith (10)

Wins:  Peter Lambert (8)

Saves:  Josh Hader (22)

ERA:  Josh Hader (0.72)

Managers:

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (10th season)

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (3rd season)