The Apertura has ended for the Argentina Liga Profesional de Futbol with Belgrano being crowned champions in the Final. Belgrano beat River Plate in the Final 3-2 and now the Clausura will be a lot more intense with the biggest clubs in Argentina all fighting for that Copa Libertadores spot. The league will be taking a break for the World Cup with the Clausura set to start toward the end of July, but this is a great time to find value in the league with no heavy favorite at the moment.
Clausura Final Winner
River Plate +650: River Plate is coming into the Clausura as the team with the best chance at winning, according to the oddsmakers. River Plate had a very rough start to the Apertura, but they turned things around in the middle of the season and ended up being one of the better teams as usual. They finished their group in 2nd place with 29 points from a 9-2-5 record and they had a +10 goal differential as well, scoring 22 goals in their 16 matches and only allowing 12 goals. They went on a run to the Final in the playoffs as well, but they came up short with a 3-2 loss to Belgrano who shocked the league. River Plate is one of the biggest clubs in all of Argentina though and they are one of the more accomplished clubs as well. They have not been dominating the league in recent years though, so they are only going to be more motivated to win after coming so close in the Apertura. They improved a lot as a team throughout the season and they have the money to spend to improve this team even more for the Clausura. River Plate is a team that is desperate for a trophy and they are going to be highly focused on winning the Clausura. This is great value for one of the better teams in the league who is going to be motivated to win the league and their odds are only going to go down as the start of the Clausura gets closer. River Plate at +650 has some very good value to win the Clausura Final this year.
Boca Juniors +700: Boca Juniors is coming into the Clausura as the team with the next best chance at winning, according to the oddsmakers. Boca Juniors had a very good start to the season and they finished high in their group, but they started to fizzle out toward the end of the season and were a disappointment in the playoffs. They finished in 2nd place of their group with 30 points from an 8-6-2 record and they had a +13 GD, scoring 22 goals in their 16 matches and only allowing 9 goals. They had one of the better defenses in the league all year, but that defense was not playing well at the end of the season and they ended up getting knocked out of the playoffs in the 1st round by Huracan after a 3-2 loss at home in extra time. They even fizzled out in their Copa Libertadores group after a strong start and ended up finishing in 3rd place, getting dropped down to Copa Sudamericana play-off matches. Boca is a very big club in Argentina as well and they are going to retool in the transfer window, but this team has had a problem with finishing over the last few years and their attack has struggled when they needed it most. Boca Juniors may dominate their group once again in the Clausura, but they do not have what it takes to win the Clausura as they will find a way to choke in the big matches. Boca Juniors at +700 is not the best option here.
Racing Club +800: Racing Club is coming into the Clausura as the team with the next best chance at winning, according to the oddsmakers. Racing Club has been a very inconsistent team in the league this season and they barely even made the playoffs in the Apertura. They finished their group in 8th place with 21 points from a 5-6-5 record and they had a +2 GD, scoring 17 goals in their 16 matches and allowing 15 goals in those. They actually finished tied for points with the 9th place team and only made the playoffs due to a slightly better GD by 2 goals, but they were lucky to even make it and needed the points in their final match of the regular season. They ended up pulling off an upset away from home in the 1st round with a 1-0 win over Estudiantes, but they ended up losing 2-1 in the next round to a much better Rosario Central side. Racing Club also struggled in their Copa Sudamericana group against weaker opponents this year and they ended up getting kicked out with a 3rd place finish in the group. Racing Club always finds a way to make themselves relevant in these competitions, but this is not the same team that dominated the league just 2 years ago and they have fallen off quite a bit since then. They certainly have not been a dominant team in the league this season either and they do not have the quality to make a run and win the Clausura Final this year. Racing Club at +800 does not have a lot of value to win the Clausura.
Rosario Central +850: Rosario Central is coming into the Clausura as the team with the next best chance at winning, according to the oddsmakers. Rosario Central was very good in the league this season and they have been a solid team in all competitions as well. They finished in 4th place of their group with 28 points from an 8-4-4 record and they had a +4 GD with 20 goals scored in their 16 matches and 16 goals allowed. They have been one of the better teams in the league all season and even though they averaged 1 goal allowed per match, their defense is much better than the way they played in the regular season. They did very well in the playoffs as well, winning the first 2 rounds at home with a 3-1 win against Independiente and a 2-1 win against Racing Club, but they ended up losing 1-0 away from home against a very good River Plate side in their last match before the Final. They had the quality to win the Apertura though and they have been very good in South America as well. They finished in 2nd place of their Copa Libertadores group, advancing to the knockouts, and they actually finished with the same record and points as the group leader as well as having a better GD, but they were beat out on H2H. Rosario Central is once again going to be a force in the Clausura and their defense has the ability to perform much better than they did in the Apertura. Rosario Central is not the best team in the league, but they are one of the better teams by far and they have what it takes to make a run in this competition. There is some good value in Rosario Central at +850 to win the Clausura.
Estudiantes +900: Estudiantes is coming into the Clausura as the team with the next best chance at winning, according to the oddsmakers. Estudiantes had a very good season in the Apertura and they have been a team in recent years that finds ways to make themselves relevant in these competitions. They finished at the top of their group in the Apertura with 31 points from a 9-4-3 record and they had a +12 GD, scoring 19 goals in their 16 matches and only allowing 7 goals in those. They had the best defense in the league during the Apertura, but that defense let them down when they got to the playoffs. They ended up fizzling out in the 1st round with a 1-0 loss at home to Racing Club who barely squeaked their way into the playoffs. They were good in Copa Libertadores as well, finishing in 2nd place and advancing to the knockouts, but they were not that dominant in their group. They are also going to have to worry about their Copa Libertadores matches when the Clausura starts and that is going to take away their focus from this competition. Estudiantes certainly has the quality to dominate the league again and make a run in the Clausura, but they have also struggled against some of the stronger opponents in the league this year and that is going to be what takes them down in the playoffs. There is some value in Estudiantes at +900 as a team that has won it in recent years, but there are better options to go with as well.
Independiente +1500: Independiente is coming into the Clausura as the team with the next best chance at winning, according to the oddsmakers. Independiente has been a solid team in the league this season, but they are not a team that is going to dominate the regular season. They finished the Apertura in 5th place of their group with 24 points from a 6-6-4 record and they had a +4 GD, scoring 24 goals in their 16 matches and allowing 20 goals. They had one of the better attacks in the league in the Apertura, but their defense was awful with the number of goals they conceded and that ended up being their biggest problem in the playoffs. They were in good form to end the regular season, but they fizzled out in the 1st round of the playoffs with a 3-1 loss to Rosario Central. They were able to keep themselves in that match for most of it, but Rosario Central broke through that bad defense late and as good as their attack has been this year, Independiente still struggled to find the net against stronger defenses. Independiente is a very tricky team to beat with their style of play so that could work in their favor here, but they are not a team that is going to dominate the regular season on a match to match basis and that will give them problems as they will likely have to play more higher seeds in the playoffs and they certainly do not have the quality to beat the top teams repeatedly. Independiente could make a run, but they are not consistent enough to go all the way and win the Clausura, so there is no real value here.
Clausura Zone Winners
Zone A Winner: Estudiantes at +333 has the best value for a team to win Zone A in the Clausura. Estudiantes already won their group in the Apertura and they have been one of the more dominant teams in the league over the last few years. They stumbled in the 1st round of the playoffs and might not be able to go all the way, but they have been a dominant regular season team and they are once again going to be a threat in this Clausura. They have the quality to win their group again with the best defense in the league that did not concede many goals in the Apertura. They are also in a group that has some of the weaker teams in the league, so they are one of the best teams coming into the new season and will continue to be tough to beat. Estudiantes at +333 has some good value to win Zone A.
Zone B Winner: River Plate at +250 has the best value for a team to win Zone B in the Clausura. River Plate did not win their group in the Apertura as they did not have a great start to the season, but they recovered very well and they are not going to allow that to happen again when they come back from the break. River Plate will be fresh and possibly more improved to start the Clausura. They are already one of the better teams in the league and even with their poor start in the Apertura, they still finished the group in 2nd place. Independiente Rivadavia finished in 1st place with a 5 point lead as they dominated the whole league, but even they fizzled out in the Apertura playoffs and they are due for some regression in the Clausura as that season was a bit of an anomaly for them. River Plate is one of the bigger clubs in Argentina as well, but they have not won a trophy in years, so they are going to be highly motivated to change that and will play every match with a purpose when the Clausura starts. River Plate came very close to winning their group as well as the playoffs in the Apertura, but they are due for a big season and this Clausura will be where they flex their strength over everyone else in the league. River Plate at +250 has some very good value to win Zone B.
Recommendation
Anything can happen in the playoffs as was seen in the Apertura with Belgrano making a run and winning the Final, but the big clubs are going to come with a vengeance in the Clausura to earn one of those coveted Copa Libertadores spots. River Plate came very close to winning it all in the Apertura and finally breaking through in the league after years of disappointment, but that heartbreak in the Final is only going to motivate them more here. River Plate is by far the best team in the league and will only improve by the start of the Clausura, so they truly have the best chance at winning it all this season. River Plate at +650 is a great option to win the Clausura Final this season, but Rosario Central at +850 is not a bad 2nd option as a backup. River Plate at +650 and Rosario Central at +850 are the 2 best options to go with for a team to win the Clausura Final.