April Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

With most MLB starters having made at least five starts in the 2026 season, the data to work with is becoming more meaningful. There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the first month of the season and these four National League starters may be worth avoiding or fading in upcoming starting efforts.  

Matthew Liberatore – St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals were expected to be one of the worst teams in the National League this season and they may still be that despite a solid 14-10 start. The Cardinals have multiple candidates for this list but Matthew Liberatore deserves mention with a 3.67 ERA and a 5.48 FIP for a huge contrast of nearly two runs. Liberatore has never been a great strikeout pitcher, but his K/9 is just 5.3, the worst of his career while his BB/9 is above his rate the past two season as well. Liberatore has allowed five home runs in five starts but still has that solid 3.67 ERA as he has mostly surrendered solo home runs and owns a strand rate above 87 percent. 

Liberatore is left-handed which has benefited him in a few early season matchups, but his career road ERA is 5.26 and he will remain a home run risk as the weather heats up in the summer. Liberatore was a 1st round pick in 2018 by the Rays, and a Cardinals team that isn’t expected to contend may keep him around in the rotation all season after he made 29 starts last season in a conversion back to a starting role after mostly pitching in relief in 2024. He might have some potential in future home starts vs. lineups that are adverse to left-handed pitching, but overall the numbers for Liberatore should be expected to climb in the coming weeks. 

Eduardo Rodriguez – Arizona Diamondbacks

After excelling for the Red Sox from 2018-2021, Rodriguez has been inconsistent since, pitching two seasons in Detroit and now in this third season with Arizona. Injuries have impacted his results, but he finished with a 5.04 ERA in 2024 and a 5.02 ERA in 2025 for the Diamondbacks. This season he has a 2.89 ERA in five starts but his FIP of 5.00 suggests that he is the same pitcher he has been in the past two seasons. 

Rodriguez has a 5.8 K/9 that would be the lowest of his career and a 3.9 BB/9 that would be the highest of his career so far this season. He has a .244 BABIP and an 86 percent strand rate, both of which would be career best results by a significant margin. Rodriguez has allowed 12 hits and eight runs in his past two starts after allowing just one earned run in his first three starts of the season and it won’t be a surprise if Rodriguez winds up with similar marginal results as the past two seasons for the Diamondbacks in 2026. 

Foster Griffin – Washington Nationals

Griffin made brief MLB appearances in 2020 and 2022 before spending three seasons in Japan. After posting excellent numbers in 2025, Griffin found an opportunity back in MLB, getting a one-year deal from Washington. So far, the move has paid off for the Nationals as Griffin has been one of the top options for a struggling pitching staff. Griffin is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA for a terrific conventional line but he has had some good fortune in five starts, while tripling his career MLB innings already in 2026.

Griffin had a good strikeout rate in Japan, but he has not been able to match that at the MLB level. Griffin also had a miniscule home run rate in Japan, but he has a 1.7 HR/9 so far this season despite the good overall numbers. He has stranded nearly 89 percent of his baserunners so far this season and owns a .253 BABIP, both figures that won’t likely be sustainable over the course of a full season. Washington has some of the worst bullpen numbers in baseball as Griffin may not get much support over the course of the season and could see some blown leads after he leaves the field as well. 

Robbie Ray – San Francisco Giants

A Cy Young winner in 2021 for the Blue Jays, Robbie Ray was an average pitcher for Seattle in 2022 before injuries limited his innings in 2023 and 2024, with a trade to San Francisco in-between those seasons. Ray posted a fine 2025 season for the Giants in his most complete season since 2022 and so far, his 2026 is off to a strong start, even as San Francisco sits below .500 even after a busy off-season boosted the hopes for the season. 

Ray has consistently had great strikeout rates in his career, but his K/9 last season was his lowest since 2015 and he is on a similar pace this season. Walks are often part of the deal with Ray and many other strikeout-reliant starters and so far this season Ray has been fortunate to strand almost 92 percent of his baserunners. He also has a .224 BABIP to offset a high home run rate. His 2.86 ERA looks impressive and mirror his best seasons from 2017 and 2021, but his FIP is 4.41 five starts into 2026, much higher than in his best previous seasons as he finishes out what has been a rather unfulfilling five-year contract.