April Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

With most MLB starters having made at least five starts in the 2026 season, the data to work with is becoming more meaningful. There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the first month of the season and these four American League starters may be worth avoiding or fading in upcoming starting efforts.  

Connelly Early – Boston Red Sox

Connelly Early is only 24 and as a 5th round pick from 2023 he has the potential to be a quality starter at the MLB level. He pitched extremely well in four MLB starts last season and his first 25 innings in 2026 have been excellent as well. Early has a solid but unspectacular 8.6 K/9 and a 4.7 BB/9 for a strikeout-to-walk ratio below 2:1 despite a 2.88 ERA so far this season. He has been fortunate to allow only two home runs in five starts while he has also stranded more than 84 percent of his baserunners. 

Early has a 4.82 ERA in home innings so far this season and Fenway Park can be a difficult park to pitch in, particularly for left-handed pitchers.  Early has provided a needed boost to the rotation for the Red Sox with Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello struggling, and Sonny Gray recently hitting the IL. A full season at this pace looks quite unlikely however and with the Red Sox falling behind in the AL East race, it seems possible that over the course of the season the bullpen for Boston supporting Early could get worse. 

Jack Kochanowicz – Los Angeles Angels

After a miserable 2025 season over 111 innings including 23 starts, Jack Kochanowicz has provided the Angels with two wins in five starts and a 3.10 ERA over 29 innings. Kochanowicz struggled with walks last season and finished with a 6.81 ERA for the 2025 season. This season his K/9 is almost identical to his 2025 rate, but his walk rate is even higher with a 5.3 BB/9. Kochanowicz has a FIP more than a run higher than his ERA, and he has an unsustainable .214 BABIP so far this season.

Kochanowicz had slight groundball tendencies last season but the 6’7” right-hander has an over 58 percent groundball rate this season, and he has allowed just one home run in 29 innings in 2026. That will be a difficult pace to maintain and while Kochanowicz was a 3rd round pick, that was back in 2019 out of high school, and he has never consistently produced strong strikeout counts in his climb through the minor leagues. The Angels have enjoyed a competitive start to the season, but Kochanowicz should not be considered much more than a back-of-the-rotation short-term fill-in moving forward, even with the strong splits through five starts. 

Emerson Hancock – Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have been a great disappointment so far in 2026 coming off a terrific run last season going seven games in the ALCS. At the outset of the season the Seattle rotation was expected to be among the best in MLB, but Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert have had tough first months. Emerson Hancock has been able to pull his weight in the back of the rotation with a 2.83 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in five appearances, including three starting efforts.

Hancock was the 6th overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft, but he has not panned out to be much more than a replacement level pitcher since making his MLB debut in 2023. His career K/9 is just 6.4 with a 4.52 ERA and a 5.05 FIP. This season his FIP is 3.98 but he has posted a stellar 2.83 ERA in nearly 29 innings of work. Hancock has solid command like most Seattle pitchers, but his current 8.8 K/9 rate would be by far a career best. His current .239 BABIP and nearly 90 percent strand rate would also be the best results of his career by a significant margin. Hancock soon turns 27 years old and perhaps he has taken a big leap forward this season, but it is more likely that his numbers will adjust in a negative direction in the coming weeks. That possibility becomes particularly evident when looking at a favorable early path of opposition faced so far this season, including road starts in favorable pitching ballparks in Anaheim and San Diego. 

Davis Martin – Chicago White Sox

Winning 75 percent of his decisions in four starts so far for the White Sox has been a nice accomplishment for Davis Martin, who is 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA. Martin has a nearly identical strikeout rate as he had over 25 starts last season when he finished with a 4.10 ERA and a 4.64 FIP, with a 6.6 K/9 compared to a 6.8 K/9 so far in 2026. Martin has a much lower home run rate and walk rate than last season and so far in 25 innings of work he has stranded over 86 percent of his baserunners after leaving only 72 percent of baserunners on last season.

Martin’s three road starts this season have come against the Marlins, Royals, and Athletics for a favorable early season path and Martin owns a 4.63 ERA in his career at Rate Field where he has pitched just once so far this season. Martin is 29 years old and has battled numerous injuries in his career, but a breakthrough season seems unlikely given his career statistics and modest strikeout potential. After a 4-5 run to start the season, the White Sox are 5-10 in the past 15 games as Martin is not likely to have great support the rest of the way and should be a candidate for a few rough outings in his future turns in the rotation.