by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Nov 05, 2021
Game time: 2 p.m. ET
Venue: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR
Where to watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Appalachian State -21
BetMGM: Appalachian State -21.5
Caesars: Appalachian State -21
Season record
Appalachian State: 6-2 (3-1 Sun Belt)
Arkansas State: 1-7 (0-4 Sun Belt)
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App State - Arkansas State preview and analysis
Last week
App State: won 59-28 vs Louisiana-Monroe
Arkansas State: lost 31-13 at South Alabama
Don’t look now, but here come the Appalachian State Mountaineers ready to break hearts in college football again.
Appalachian State will try for its sixth win in seven games and continue a strong run for hopes of another Sun Belt Championship game appearance when it takes on the Arkansas State Red Wolves on the road Saturday.
There may not be a better two-week bounce-back than what App State did since losing to the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns on Oct. 12. To go from knocking off the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and Louisiana-Monroe to put the pressure on in the Sun Belt.
The Mountaineers jumped out to a 49-7 halftime lead before eventually winning by 31 ULM. Chase Brice threw for 256 yards and four touchdowns, while Nate Noel ran for 132 yards and a touchdown on just 17 carries. Camerun Peoples added 82 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries, as well.
Appalachian State’s offense has eclipsed 500 yards in five of its last six games; the Mountaineers had 521 against ULM and also forced five turnovers. That doesn’t bode well for a struggling Arkansas State team that has allowed almost 560 yards and 43 points per game this season.
We’re not talking in a three-, four-week span. This is through eight games for the Red Wolves, and they’re coming off a 31-13 loss to the South Alabama Jaguars in which the Wolves had only 224 total yards of offense and turned it over four times.
Quarterback Layne Hatcher threw three interceptions for only 186 yards. Arkansas State had only 38 yards on 26 carries combined. It’s an offense that has averaged 23 points and only 360-plus yards per game in the last four games. The Arkansas State offense has not been good, and coupled with an already-bad defense does not help things.
Prediction
This shouldn’t be a difficult week. Appalachian State jumped out to a six-touchdown lead at halftime last week. Against a much worse team, this will not be a problem. App State by 31
Betting trends
Appalachian State is 1-5 ATS over the last six following a win by 28 or more.
App State is 7-7 ATS in its last 14 road games.
Arkansas State is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog.
Statistical leaders
Appalachian State:
Passing: Chase Brice -- 2,096 yards, 14 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Nate Noel -- 769 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Corey Xavier Sutton -- 682 yards, 5 TD
Defense: Two tied -- 4 sacks
Arkansas State:
Passing: James Blackman -- 1,334 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Lincoln Pare -- 230 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Corey Rucker -- 602 yards, 8 TD
Defense: Joe Ozougwu -- 4.5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
