by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024
Game Time: 4:15 pm ET, Saturday, October 5, 2024
Venue: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
Where to Watch: SEC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Alabama -22.5, Vanderbilt +22.5; Over/Under: 55.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Alabama -23, Vanderbilt +23; Over/Under: 55.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Alabama -23.5, Vanderbilt +23.5; Over/Under: 55.5 points
Season Record
Alabama Crimson Tide: 4-0 (1-0) (3rd place, SEC)
Vanderbilt Commodores: 2-2 (0-1) (14th place, SEC)
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Recent Form
Alabama Crimson Tide: won their last game at home against the Georgia Bulldogs 41-34.
Vanderbilt Commodores: lost their last game on the road against the Missouri Tigers 30-27 in overtime.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores Preview and Analysis
Alabama is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Georgia 41-34. Jalen Milroe was the starting QB and he completed 27/33 passes for 374 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jalen Milroe led the team in rushing yards with 117 and 2 TDs. Ryan Williams led the receivers with 177 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Deontae Lawson led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Deontae Lawson and Qua Russaw each led the defense in sacks with 1. Zabien Brown, Domani Jackson, and Jihaad Campbell each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Vanderbilt is entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Missouri 30-27 in OT. Diego Pavia was the starting QB and he completed 14/23 passes for 178 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Diego Pavia led the team in rushing yards with 84. Joseph McVay led the receivers with 65 receiving yards on 1 reception and 1 TD. Bryan Longwell led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Bryan Longwell, Randon Fontenette, and Khordae Sydnor each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Prediction
The current betting odds have Alabama listed as a 22.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Alabama has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record. They have been blowing out their opponents all season and now they are coming off a huge win over Georgia in their last one, earning the 1st rank overall in the country with that win. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall and their 0-1 conference record. They are coming off a close game against Missouri in their last one, losing 30-27 in overtime, but this will be a much different game with the number 1 team coming into town. Vanderbilt has improved a lot this season with Pavia leading the offense, but the defense has still been a big problem for them. That is going to be a big issue in this game with the way the Alabama offense has been rolling. They ended up letting Georgia come all the way back in their last game, but they still came away with the win against a top 5 team in the country, and they started that game up 28-0 too. This Alabama team has been completely changed under DeBoer so expect them to continue rolling in this one. The best way to place a bet here is on Alabama to cover the spread in this game.
Alabama Vanderbilt Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 5, 2024 (4:15 pm ET start time) is Alabama 45 Vanderbilt 16.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Alabama Crimson Tide Vanderbilt Commodores prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.
NCAAF Betting Trends
Alabama Crimson Tide: 12-6 ATS against conference opponents. 10-5 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins. 10-5 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 6-1 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 12-3 OVER off a home win. 8-0 OVER off a home win against a conference rival. 10-3 OVER after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins.
Vanderbilt Commodores: 4-10 ATS in home lined games. 4-8 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 6-11 ATS against conference opponents. 2-7 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 11-3 OVER in home lined games. 12-0 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 7-2 OVER off 3 or more consecutive overs.
Key Injuries
Alabama Crimson Tide: Q. Russaw (LB) Questionable - Leg. C. Adams (WR) Questionable - Arm. J. Hale (WR) Out - Knee.
Vanderbilt Commodores: B. Coleman (TE) Out - Collarbone. M. Davis (CB) Out - Achilles.
Notable Quotes
“We expect to win these games. Of course the locker room is full of excitement but I also want to make sure they realize that’s the expectation. There’s a lot of season left." - Kalen DeBoer after his team’s win against UGA in their last game.
“I’m not surprised that they’re looking forward to the opportunity that awaits. My message to them has been [that] we can’t skip any steps. This is about getting everything we can get out of our process to best position ourselves to make the plays that we’ll need to make to win a game on Saturday.” - Clark Lea on his team’s upcoming game against Alabama this week.
Starting Lineups
Alabama Crimson Tide
WR Williams, Ryan
WR Bernard, Germie
WR Law, Kendrick
TE Dippre, CJ
TE Ouzts, Robbie
QB Milroe, Jalen
RB Miller, Jam
Vanderbilt Commodores
WR Sherrill, Junior
WR Skinner Jr., Quincy
WR Hoskins, Richie
TE Spence, Cole
QB Pavia, Diego
RB Alexander, Sedrick
FB Fisher, Gabe
Statistical Leaders
Alabama Crimson Tide
Passing: J. Milroe (964)
Rushing: J. Miller (273)
Receiving: R. Williams (462)
Touchdowns: J. Milroe (8)
Vanderbilt Commodores
Passing: D. Pavia (721)
Rushing: D. Pavia (279)
Receiving: E. Stowers (220)
Touchdowns: S. Alexander (4)
Coaches:
Alabama Crimson Tide: Kalen DeBoer (1st season)
Vanderbilt Commodores: Clark Lea (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
