by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Oct 05, 2021
Game time: 8 p.m. ET, October 9, 2021
Venue: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Alabama -17.5
BetMGM: Alabama -17.5
Caesars: Alabama -17.5
Season record
No. 1 Alabama: 5-0 (2-0 SEC)
Texas A&M: 3-2 (0-2 SEC)
Ben Burns' college football plays are 6-2/75% this month. Going back further finds Ben at 29-16 his L45 college football plays. His Conf. GAME OF THE YEAR selections are 100% PERFECT this season and the SBC version goes Friday. If you liked last Friday's LAUGHER on Iowa 'over' the total, you're going to LOVE this play. Catch Ben’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Alabama - Texas A&M preview and analysis
Recent form
Alabama: won 42-21 vs. No. 17 Ole Miss on Oct. 2
Texas A&M: lost 26-22 vs. Mississippi State on Oct. 2
Nick Saban taught Lane Kiffin a lot. Clearly, not everything, because the Alabama Crimson Tide are still the dominant force as they’ve always been.
The defending national champions are 5-0 yet again and look poised to make another run at a title should they keep this pace up. The Tide will hit the road for the first time in three weeks when they face the struggling Texas A&M Aggies on Saturday.
In a week that showed the SEC is still run by the teams at the top -- Alabama and the Georgia Bulldogs in a future SEC Championship game -- the Crimson Tide brought the Ole Miss Rebels back down to Earth with a 21-point win in Tuscaloosa last week.
Alabama stormed to a 28-0 halftime lead with two 1-yard touchdown runs from Brian Robinson as part of a 171-yard, four-touchdown day. Quarterback Bryce Young threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns in the win.
But until further notice, Alabama will always remain a defensive-minded program. That’s what Kiffin, the former offensive assistant to Saban a few years ago, quickly remembered. Ole Miss was held to 291 total yards with quarterback Matt Corral being responsible for 213 of those through the air.
Outside of Henry Parrish Jr.’s 47 yards on 11 carries, the Rebels couldn’t run the ball at all against Alabama’s defense (31 yards on 23 carries). The Tide defense had seven tackles for loss and sacked Corral twice.
And that’s absolutely what a horrid offense in Texas A&M does not want to see going into this weekend. The Aggies are out of the polls after consecutive conference losses; the latest being a four-point upset at the hands of the Mississippi State Bulldogs last week.
The good news: Texas A&M had only 297 total yards of offense and still had a chance to win.
The bad news: Quarterback Zach Calzada is not good and neither is this A&M pass defense. Calzada finished 12 of 20 for 135 yards, a touchdown and an interception while the Aggies saw MSU quarterback Will Rogers throw for 408 yards and three touchdowns.
A&M is still navigating its way without injured starting quarterback Haynes King, but Calzada isn’t any better and A&M has not looked good since losing to the Arkansas Razorbacks. This is an offense that has turned cold under head coach Jimbo Fisher.
Prediction
Saban called the Aggies the best team they’ve seen in terms of personnel. High praise. Still isn’t stopping Alabama from curb-stomping Texas A&M in their own stadium in this weekend’s matchup. Young has a big game, ‘Bama covers by halftime. Alabama by 24
Betting trends
Alabama is 7-1 against the spread in its last eight when a road favorite of 14.5 to 17 points, while 22-10 ATS in its last 32 when a road favorite of 14.5 or more. Outright, the Tide is 32-0 in that stretch.
Texas A&M is 4-3 ATS as an underdog in its last seven and 2-5 outright against its opponent. Moneyline is not an option here.
Statistical leaders
Alabama:
Passing: Bryce Young -- 1,365 yards, 17 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Brian Robinson Jr. -- 379 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Jameson Williams -- 364 yards, 3 TD
Texas A&M:
Passing: Zach Calzada -- 744 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Isaiah Spiller -- 445 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Ainias Smith -- 200 yards, 2 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert college football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Alabama - Texas A&M prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NCAA projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
