by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Oct 11, 2022
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Alabama -7.5
FanDuel: Alabama - 13.5
BetMGM: Alabama -7.5
Caesars: Alabama -7.5
Season record
No. 3 Alabama: 6-0 (3-0 SEC)
No. 6 Tennessee: 5-0 (2-0 SEC)
We're about to hit the fun part of college football season where games start getting a little tighter, performances start to become a little more noteworthy, and times at the books are fun for all. You don't believe me? Look at our own Kyle Hunter posting a 25-7-0 run over the last month in college football. That's even with all of the upsets and everything in between. Week 7 is upon us and we're near the point where college football is every day. You want to get back into the swing of things with this? Make sure to follow our Best Bets page and see what our champion handicappers are up to at bigal.com. Who knows? With a little bit of faith in us, you can be like Kyle, or even have as good a run as Sean Murphy at 32-16-1 over the last 30 days. The choices are yours!
Alabama - Tennessee preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Alabama: won 24-20 vs. Texas A&M
Tennessee: won 40-13 at No. 25 LSU
We talk about Thanos from time to time here, but is there any more descriptive team to compare to Thanos than the Alabama Crimson Tide? Even with a less-than-100% Bryce Young, this team always finds a way. Even when they win when they’re not supposed to, they’re just inevitable. It’s really incredible in the way this is happening. But as a punishment for only winning by 4 against Texas A&M, the Crimson Tide are now No. 3 in the league.
We talk about Thanos from time to time here, but is there any more descriptive team to compare to Thanos than the Alabama Crimson Tide? Even with a less-than-100% Bryce Young, this team always finds a way. Even when they win when they’re not supposed to, they’re just inevitable. It’s really incredible in the way this is happening. But as a punishment for only winning by 4 against Texas A&M, the Crimson Tide are now No. 3 in the league.
Which sets up perhaps the biggest game we’ll see in the SEC this season when Alabama visits Knoxville to take on No. 6 Tennessee in a game that could determine the balance of power outside of Georgia (which, really, with the way the Bulldogs are struggling at the moment, nothing is a guarantee at this point). But best believe, this is the toughest challenge Alabama will face all year outside of the Bulldogs, because this Tennessee team is legit, Hendon Hooker is the real deal and that place is going to be rocking.
Young did not play in Alabama’s 24-20 win over Texas A&M. Instead, Jalen Milroe got his first start and did everything you needed to do in this one. Milroe had 184 total yards between 12 completions and 17 runs, and even when the Tide had to switch to an option-based offense, it still worked out in the Tide’s favor. Milroe threw three touchdowns, and the Alabame defense held A&M to 323 yards, which was enough considering Alabama turned it over four times in the win.
"That was not our best football out there tonight," Alabama coach Nick Saban said. "When you don't have your quarterback out there and the second-teamer has to play, everybody's got to play better."
But alas, that’s why the Tide are Thanos. They are inevitable, and have continued to find a way to win almost every week. Much like they found a way to do against Arkansas, they found a way to do that with the second-string quarterback at home against a very tough Texas A&M team. Young’s status for this game is up in the air, but you know it’d be a lot better to have Young vs. Hooker – a battle between last year’s Heisman Trophy winner and a strong case for this year’s Heisman Trophy winner.
The run Tennessee is on is quite impressive. It all started with that win in Pittsburgh to start the year. Since then, the Vols have run roughshod over everyone. They hold off Florida 38-33 two weeks ago, then go to Baton Rouge and absolutely put the smackdown on the LSU Fightin’ Brian Kelly Southern Accents 40-13. Hooker was once again great, throwing for 239 yards and two touchdowns while running for 56 more. Jabari Small ruled the day with 127 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries, and Bru McCoy led the charge in the passing game by catching seven passes for 140 yards. Jalin Hyatt caught both touchdowns from Hooker.
"We have found a way to be the best team on the field the last five weeks," Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said. "Our players have worked hard and more importantly expect to play very well. They expect to win."
If there was a time to put Alabama away early and keep them out of any conference title talk/national championship discussion, it might be now. No Young, a raucous environment, everything you don’t want as a young quarterback in this situation. And yet here’s Alabama favored by 7.5 at most books.
If there was ever a time for the points, it’s now.
Prediction
It’s going to come down to the quarterbacks. Alabama’s defense will do what it can, but Hooker is better than any QB the Tide have faced to this point. And when it comes down to which QB is better, there’s no debate on who can lead who to victory. Tennessee with the upset, party at Rocky Top. Tennessee by 6
Betting trends
Alabama is 20-12 ATS as a favorite in the last three seasons.
Alabama is 15-7 ATS off a conference game in the last 22.
Alabama is 9-2 ATS off three straight conference wins in its last 11.
Tennessee is 2-9 ATS as an underdog in its last 11.
Tennessee is 2-8 ATS since 1992 as a home underdog between 7.5 and 14 points.
Statistical leaders
Alabama:
Passing: Bryce Young -- 1,202 yards, 14 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Jahmyr Gibbs -- 532 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Traeshon Holden -- 223 yards, 4 TD
Tennessee:
Passing: Hendon Hooker -- 1,432 yards, 10 TD
Rushing: Jaylen Wright -- 315 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Jalin Hyatt -- 388 yards, 5 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Alabama Crimson Tide - Tennessee Volunteers prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
