Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/03/2026

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 3, 2026

Venue:  Davis Wade Stadium, Mississippi State, MS

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Alabama -5.5, Mississippi State +5.5; Over/Under:  59.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Alabama -5.5, Mississippi State +5.5; Over/Under:  59.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Alabama -5.5, Mississippi State +5.5; Over/Under:  59.5 points

Alabama Crimson Tide:  4-0 (2-0) (1st place, SEC)

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  4-0 (2-0) (1st place, SEC)

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Alabama Crimson Tide:  won their last game at home against the South Carolina Gamecocks 49-18.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  won their last game at home against the Missouri Tigers 31-24.

Alabama is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against South Carolina 49-18. Keelon Russell was the starting QB and he completed 21/27 passes for 365 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. EJ Crowell led the team in rushing yards with 50. Ryan Coleman-Williams led the receivers with 98 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 2 TDs. Luke Metz led the defense in that game with 13 tackles while Yhonzae Pierre and London Simmons each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. Red Morgan came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Missouri 31-24. Kamario Taylor was the starting QB and he completed 27/38 passes for 360 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Fluff Bothwell led the team in rushing yards with 122 and 1 TD. Anthony Evans III led the receivers with 114 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Jardin Gilbert led the defense in that game with 9 tackles while Marcus Williams led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Alabama listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Alabama has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 2-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They have been a good road team too with their 1-0 road record this year. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 2-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They have looked good on their home field too with their 2-0 home record this season. Mississippi State has been a big surprise to start the season and they have one of the most exciting QB's in the nation, but the defense still has lots of issues to work through. They are coming off a 31-24 win over Missouri in their last one and picked up a road win against South Carolina the week before, but they haven't played against a top team in the conference yet and this is going to be their biggest challenge so far. Alabama has looked great in their games so far and they are coming off a 49-18 win over South Carolina in their last one. They also have a big win over Kentucky in the conference and they have had some bad starts to their games, but they have overcome it every single time and find ways to win by double digits in the end. Alabama is starting to round into shape as one of the best teams in the SEC this year and as good as Mississippi State has looked so far, they will likely come crashing down back to Earth here against a superior opponent. The best way to place a bet here is on Alabama to cover the spread in this game. 

Alabama Mississippi State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Alabama 42 Mississippi State 27.

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Alabama Crimson Tide: 5-9 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 2-6 ATS on the road versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less. 2-6 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.25 rushing yards/carry or less. 8-3 OVER after scoring 37 points or more last game. 6-3 OVER as a road favorite.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 19-10 ATS in all lined games. 8-4 ATS vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 8-4 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 12-4 OVER in home lined games. 9-4 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

Alabama Crimson Tide:  A. Walker (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  J. Freeman (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Williams (DL) Out - Leg. A. Williams (WR) Out - Leg. B. Mitchell (WR) Out - Undisclosed.

“Thought we did a pretty good job playing clean football. Had a few penalties, but I thought our emotional maturity just when a couple times it got a little chippy there — I thought our guys do a really good job of putting the team first. Proud of them for that.” - Kalen DeBoer after his team’s win against South Carolina in their last game. 

“Things weren't perfect. We get out to the lead, obviously we lose it, there's all kinds of mistakes that will need to get cleaned up, but, man, put your cleats in the ground, go play the next play.” - Jeff Lebby after his team’s win against Mizzou in their last game. 

WR Coleman-Williams, Ryan

WR Scott, Rico

WR Brooks, Lotzeir

TE Edwards, Kaleb

QB Russell, Keelon

RB Hill, Daniel 

WR Magee, Sanfrisco

WR Ragins, Zion

WR Evans III, Anthony

TE West, Sam

QB Taylor, Kamario

RB Bothwell, Fluff

Passing: Keelon Russell (1,129)

Rushing: Daniel Hill (225)

Receiving: Ryan Coleman-Williams (333)

Touchdowns: Daniel Hill (4)

Passing: Kamario Taylor (1,192)

Rushing: Fluff Bothwell (402)

Receiving: Anthony Evans III (408)

Touchdowns: Sanfrisco Magee (5)

Coaches:

Alabama Crimson Tide: Kalen DeBoer (3rd season)

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Jeff Lebby (3rd season)